River Flood Warning 31, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

868 
WGUS81 KBOX 150342
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1042 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019


...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers in 
Rhode Island...

  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Rhode Island...
  Connecticut River At Hartford affecting Hartford and Middlesex 
  Counties
  Connecticut River At Middle Haddam affecting Middlesex County
  Pawcatuck River At Westerly affecting New London and Washington 
  Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.



&&

RIC009-152100-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-191215T2100Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.191214T1930Z.191215T0315Z.191215T1500Z.NO/
1042 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wood River At Hope Valley.
* until Sunday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:15 PM Saturday the stage was 5.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...In Richmond, the Wood River renders portions 
  of Wood River Drive and Wood River Circle impassable. In Hopkinton,
  the Wood River floods sections of Dow Park off of Main Street.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$

CTC003-007-160342-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0030.191216T1500Z-191217T0400Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.191216T1500Z.191216T1500Z.191216T2200Z.NO/
1042 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Hartford.
* from Monday morning to Monday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  9:30 PM Saturday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage late 
  Monday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding is expected in several low 
  lying areas outside levee protection in Hartford, as well as 
  downstream through Wethersfield and Glastonbury. Further downstream
  flooding is likely in the vicinity of Meadow Road, Route 17A, in 
  the Gildersleeve section of Portland. A portion of this roadway 
  will likely be closed. This includes the Exchange Club of Portland 
  Fairgrounds. Boating interests should prepare for a period of swift
  river flows during this period.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 7270 4180 7273 4180 7259 4164 7258
      4163 7263 4164 7263            

$$

CTC007-160342-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0031.191216T1700Z-191218T0800Z/
/MHDC3.1.ER.191216T1700Z.191216T2100Z.191218T0200Z.UU/
1042 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam.
* from Monday afternoon to late Tuesday night...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  9:55 PM Saturday the stage was 4.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Monday early 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 7.5 feet by Monday 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by Tuesday before 
  midnight.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flooding is expected in low lying sections 
  along the Connecticut River from Wethersfield and Glastonbury 
  downstream through Cromwell, Middletown and Portland. Boating 
  interests should prepare for a period of swift river flows.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7269 4164 7258 4129 7225 4126 7239
      4141 7251 4156 7270            

$$

CTC011-RIC009-160342-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-191216T1500Z/
/WSTR1.1.ER.191214T1845Z.191215T0600Z.191216T0900Z.NO/
1042 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Westerly.
* until Monday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:00 PM Saturday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.0 feet by after
  midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage Monday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Floodwaters approach lowest lying homes along
  Hiscox Road in Westerly. Along Route 3, flooding occurs at some 
  homes in French Village in Hopkinton.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7189 4144 7188 4146 7177 4135 7174
      4131 7185                      

$$

123 
WGUS81 KBOX 151153
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
653 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019


...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Rhode Island...

  Pawcatuck River At Westerly affecting New London and Washington 
  Counties
  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...
  Connecticut River At Hartford affecting Hartford and Middlesex 
  Counties
  Connecticut River At Middle Haddam affecting Middlesex County


The Pawcatuck River at Westerly and Wood River at Hope Valley have 
both crested and will continue to slowly recede today. Meanwhile
the Connecticut River at Hartford and Middle Haddam expected to reach
minor flood stage during the day on Monday.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.



&&

CTC011-RIC009-161153-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/
/WSTR1.1.ER.191214T1845Z.191215T0400Z.191216T1200Z.NO/
653 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Westerly.
* until Monday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:00 AM Sunday the stage was 7.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.6 feet by this 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Floodwaters approach lowest lying homes along
  Hiscox Road in Westerly. Along Route 3, flooding occurs at some 
  homes in French Village in Hopkinton.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7189 4144 7188 4146 7177 4135 7174
      4131 7185                      

$$

RIC009-160112-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-191216T0112Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.191214T1930Z.191215T0645Z.191215T1912Z.NO/
653 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wood River At Hope Valley.
* until this evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  6:15 AM Sunday the stage was 5.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 5.5 feet by this 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...In Richmond, the Wood River renders portions 
  of Wood River Drive and Wood River Circle impassable. In Hopkinton,
  the Wood River floods sections of Dow Park off of Main Street.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$

CTC003-007-161153-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0030.191216T1500Z-191217T0400Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.191216T1500Z.191216T1500Z.191216T2200Z.NO/
653 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Hartford.
* from Monday morning to Monday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  6:30 AM Sunday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding is expected in several low 
  lying areas outside levee protection in Hartford, as well as 
  downstream through Wethersfield and Glastonbury. Further downstream
  flooding is likely in the vicinity of Meadow Road, Route 17A, in 
  the Gildersleeve section of Portland. A portion of this roadway 
  will likely be closed. This includes the Exchange Club of Portland 
  Fairgrounds. Boating interests should prepare for a period of swift
  river flows during this period.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 7270 4180 7273 4180 7259 4164 7258
      4163 7263 4164 7263            

$$

CTC007-161153-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0031.191216T1700Z-191218T0800Z/
/MHDC3.1.ER.191216T1700Z.191216T2100Z.191218T0200Z.UU/
653 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam.
* from Monday afternoon to late Tuesday night...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  5:55 AM Sunday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow early 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 7.5 feet by tomorrow 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by Tuesday before 
  midnight.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flooding is expected in low lying sections 
  along the Connecticut River from Wethersfield and Glastonbury 
  downstream through Cromwell, Middletown and Portland. Boating 
  interests should prepare for a period of swift river flows.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7269 4164 7258 4129 7225 4126 7239
      4141 7251 4156 7270            

$$

AED

403 
WGUS81 KBOX 151905
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
205 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019


...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Rhode Island...

  Connecticut River At Middle Haddam affecting Middlesex County
  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Rhode Island...
  Pawcatuck River At Westerly affecting New London and Washington 
  Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.



&&

CTC007-161905-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0031.191216T1900Z-191218T0500Z/
/MHDC3.1.ER.191216T1900Z.191216T2100Z.191217T2300Z.UU/
205 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam.
* from Monday afternoon to late Tuesday night...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  1:55 PM Sunday the stage was 5.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow early 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 7.2 feet by tomorrow 
  afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Flooding is likely in the vicinity of Meadow 
  Road, Route 17A, in the Gildersleeve section of Portland. A portion
  of this roadway will likely be closed. This includes the Exchange 
  Club of Portland Fairgrounds. Boating interests should prepare for 
  a period of swift river flows during this period.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7269 4164 7258 4129 7225 4126 7239
      4141 7251 4156 7270            

$$

RIC009-160138-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-191216T0138Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.191214T1930Z.191215T0645Z.191215T1938Z.NO/
205 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wood River At Hope Valley.
* until this evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 PM Sunday the stage was 5.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...In Richmond, floodwaters begin to pond onto 
  Wood River Drive. In Hopkinton off of Main Street, the Wood River 
  begins to flood Dow Park.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$

CTC011-RIC009-161800-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-191216T1800Z/
/WSTR1.1.ER.191214T1845Z.191215T0400Z.191216T1200Z.NO/
205 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Westerly.
* until Monday afternoon...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 PM Sunday the stage was 7.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs along the 
  Pawcatuck River. Along Route 3 in Hopkinton, floodwaters encroach 
  on lowest lying homes in French Village.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7189 4144 7188 4146 7177 4135 7174
      4131 7185                      

$$

549 
WGUS81 KBOX 160230
FLSBOX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
930 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...

  Connecticut River At Middle Haddam affecting Middlesex County

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Rhode Island...

  Pawcatuck River At Westerly affecting New London and Washington 
  Counties



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.



&&

CTC007-160300-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-191218T0500Z/
/MHDC3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
930 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam.
* At  8:55 PM Sunday the stage was 5.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage with a value of 
  6.9 feet tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Flooding is likely in the vicinity of Meadow 
  Road, Route 17A, in the Gildersleeve section of Portland. A portion
  of this roadway will likely be closed. This includes the Exchange 
  Club of Portland Fairgrounds. Boating interests should prepare for 
  a period of swift river flows during this period.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7269 4164 7258 4129 7225 4126 7239
      4141 7251 4156 7270            

$$

CTC011-RIC009-170229-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-191217T0600Z/
/WSTR1.1.ER.191214T1845Z.191215T0400Z.191217T0000Z.NO/
930 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Westerly.
* until late Monday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will gradually fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 7.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs along the 
  Pawcatuck River. Along Route 3 in Hopkinton, floodwaters encroach 
  on lowest lying homes in French Village.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7189 4144 7188 4146 7177 4135 7174
      4131 7185                      

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
935 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will lift north of the region this evening followed
by drier but windy conditions. Dry and blustery conditions
will continue Sunday. A frontal system passing just south of
Southern New England may spread a period of snow to wintry mix
Monday night into Tuesday. A strong Arctic front then ushers in
a period of scattered snow showers and much below normal
temperatures by mid to late week. Gradual moderation by the
weekend, through temperatures should remain at below normal
levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

935 PM Update...

Rapidly intensifying low pressure has lifted in Quebec and
allowed for increasing SW flow. This has resulted in even most
of the interior mixing out their inversion with most locations
currently in the 50s. The fog has also pretty much scoured out,
except for a bit of fog across the Cape/Islands which should
improve soon.

Otherwise, dry weather prevails for the remainder of the night
except for a few rain/snow showers along the east slopes of the
Berks. Winds should increase after midnight as lapse rates begin
to steepen with colder air working into the region aloft. Expect
SW wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph to develop overnight, except
gusts between 45 and 50 mph across the Islands where lapse rates
will be maximized with the flow over the ocean. Therefore, wind
advisories go into effect for the Islands after midnight.

While it will turn cooler, it will remain well above freezing in
most locations overnight.  Low temps will only drop into the
upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...

Strong west winds will be the main story as deep low pres lifts
north across eastern Canada. Steep low level lapse rates will
promote a deep and well mixed boundary layer with soundings
supporting gusts 40-50 mph. Strongest gusts expected over the
higher terrain and Islands. We expanded the wind advisory
across much of MA along and north of the Pike as well as east
coastal MA and Cape Cod. Otherwise, a mainly dry day with
sunshine becoming mixed with clouds as some low level moisture
is present. However, can't rule out a few lake effect snow
showers spilling across the Berkshires. Most cloud cover will be
in the interior. Highs will range from upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sunday night...

Still gusty into the evening with potential for 35-45 mph gusts
but winds will gradually diminish through the overnight as
gradient relaxes and high pres approaches from the west.
Mainly clear skies with lows dropping into the upper teens to
mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Increasing confidence for plowable snow, and/or snow and icy
  roads, Monday overnight into Tuesday across interior MA/CT into
  RI. Impact to the Tuesday AM commute from snow and/or mixed
  precip. Accumulations to depend on thermal structure and p-type
  changes, details on both are still uncertain.

* Scattered snow showers and possible snow squalls Wednesday
  afternoon into early evening ahead of Arctic cold front.

* Well below normal temperatures, with single digit to below-zero
  wind chills, for Wednesday night into Thursday.

* Gradual moderation, though just less below-normal temps by
  Friday into the weekend.

Details...

After a brief shot of colder air Sunday night, temperatures start to
moderate somewhat with warm advection into the first part of Monday.
GFS and ECMWF ensemble means then show a lead shortwave trough
moving out from the Plains states into the Northeast states late
Monday into Tuesday. This lead feature, with some interaction from a
stronger polar trough digging SE from the northern Canadian Prairies
into the Great Lakes, will spread a surface low/frontal system from
the OH Valley to Southern New England and look to spread a period of
wintry wx for Monday night into Tuesday. The polar trough mentioned
then becomes the primary feature, with a shot of modified-Arctic air
overspreading a good part of New England to end the workweek. Though
there's greater spread in the guidance beyond Friday, the shot of
well below normal temperatures looks generally short, with
moderating temperatures for the weekend.

Monday:

Chilly start, though gradual warming through much of the day amid
weak high pressure, modest warm advection and daytime sun becoming
increasingly filtered moving through the day. BUFKIT soundings still
show considerable dry air below 800 mb across much of the region so
looking for a dry forecast through sunset; but the dry air from low-
levels to sfc is an indication that temperatures may cool to wet-
bulb values once steadier precip gets going later Monday night.

Monday Night Through Tuesday Night:

** Confidence on Wintry Weather Increasing for Monday Night thru
Tuesday **

Warm front will begin to lift across coastal RI into southern CT
early Monday night, with precip spreading northward across most of
Southern New England late Monday night and into Tuesday. This again
looks to be a mixed precip event with multiple p-types/changes for
parts of the area, with greatest period of impact appearing to be
Monday overnight into the first part of Tuesday.

Biggest sources of uncertainty on forecast accumulations and impact
are from thermal structure, potential for bands and event total QPF.
Wet-bulb temps look cold enough off most models to fall as frozen
precip at least initially. Eastern/SE MA into central/southern RI
should eventually see temps warming to near/above freezing levels.
Models also continue to vary on how quickly to advance a warm nose
northward into the colder air, which would affect precipitation
types and changeovers even in the interior. The past few runs of the
GFS have extended its warm nose further north the soonest; so the
GFS would offer a somewhat shorter period of snow and a quicker
transition to mixed precip and/or rain by Tuesday afternoon. ECMWF
remains the coldest, and would keep snow hanging on longest at least
into western/central and northern MA, and more of a snow to mixed-
precip scenario across northern CT into central/northern RI.
Canadian GEM is something in between when it comes to thermal
structure. GFS does indicate a ribbon of 850-700 mb frontogenetic
forcing, on the nose of 850 mb southerly speed convergence, lifting
from S to N overnight into early Tuesday morning that may force
steadier/heavier periods of precip in that period of time. While
models have trended somewhat wetter compared to morning runs, I do
note that synoptic features in mid-levels aren't closed off, giving
an impression of a generally progressive system with (at least at
the moment) a relatively short accumulation period.

Ensemble probabilities of "plowable" snow (> 3 inches) are around 60-
70 percent across interior MA into northern CT/northern RI on the
ECMWF ensemble; the more warmer GFS shifts this axis more into
interior New England. Think this does convey the forecast
uncertainty especially hinging on thermal structure and p-type
transition zones.

In terms of accumulations, a first shot would be something in the 3-
5" range along the Route 2 corridor into NE MA away from the coast,
amounts then may look like a 2-4" with a bit of freezing rain from
the Mass Pike/I-95 southward through Bristol County MA into the
Hartford/Providence corridor (with a transition from less snow and
more PL/FZRA accretions further south one goes). Slushy C-2" and
mainly cold rain along the E/SE MA coast into coastal S RI. Above
initial scenario more closely follows the international guidance
than the milder GFS. Uncertainties stated earlier may increase or
decrease those totals, perhaps by a few inches. It is possible that
some areas could see marginal warning-criteria accumulations towards
northern MA though see this as being at least an Advisory event for
the interior; given questions on p-types throwing a monkey wrench
into accumulations, confidence wasn't high enough to hoist Watches.

Confidence is increasing on the overnight into the Tuesday AM
commute being adversely impacted with snow and/or iced up roads,
especially areas near/north of Route 6 in CT-RI and near/NW of I-95.
Snow and/or sleet should be mixing in Tuesday across northern into
central/west-central MA, with sleet/freezing rain transition zone
trudging northward. Coastal MA/RI into part of SE MA may only see a
shorter period of wintry weather before changing to a cold rain,
with mild water temps resulting in warmer 2-m temps that may switch
p-type from wintry to rain sooner. All areas change back to a brief
bit of snow as surface low pulls away from the coast by Tuesday
evening.

Wednesday:

Cold advection plunges in on NW winds on early Wednesday, as we
await the strong northern stream trough and sharp Arctic cold front
for the second part of the day into early evening. BUFKIT soundings
show steep low-level lapse rates and shallow wintertime convective
instability during the mid-aftn to early evening hrs with some
shallow moisture. That could open the door for scattered snow
showers or even some snow squalls with the frontal zone. Timing this
front through will be critical and there exists the potential for
low-visibility snow bursts/snow squalls during the Wednesday PM
commute.

Wednesday Night into Thursday Night:

Core of the Arctic air plunges into Southern New England behind the
Arctic front Wednesday evening. GFS/ECMWF differ on how cold low-
level temperatures get, but there's multi-model signal for -15 to -
18C 850 mb air invading a large part of Southern New England
Wednesday night. With lows in the single digits to low teens and
winds 15-20 mph Wednesday night, likely looking at a period of sub-
zero wind chills by early Thursday morning from the I-95 corridor,
and wind chills around 0-5 above towards the E/SE Mass coast into
southern RI.

Although Thursday looks dry as ridging builds into the region, it
still looks quite chilly with highs only in the teens to low 20s and
wind chills around 0-10 above. Winds slacken into Thursday night as
high pressure centers itself over western New England, with good
radiational cooling bringing single digit to mid teens lows.

Friday into the Weekend:

Does look like the period of well below normal temperatures is
pretty short-lived. While still below normal, slow/gradual
moderation in temperatures then looks to prevail Friday into
Saturday. Compared to the -15 to -18C 850 mb temps from Wed nite
into Thurs, these are around -3 to -6C by 12z Sunday. This part of
the forecast is overall on the dry side, with the next chance for
precip coming from a Clipper system by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday Night/...

00z TAF Update:

Rest of tonight...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence
on timing.
Mist/fog should become less prevalent early, through IFR
conditions due to low ceilings should continue until overnight.
Gradual improvement in cigs to MVFR-VFR levels by morning. Winds
to become SW/WSW with developing gusts 25-35 kts, nearing 40
kts towards eastern MA, the Cape and Islands by sunrise.

Sunday...High confidence.
VFR with sct-bkn cigs 4-5k ft developing. West wind gusts 35-40
kt, with 40-45 kt possible over higher terrain and
Cape/Islands.

Sunday night...High confidence.
VFR. Gradually diminishing wind but reaming gusty.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN.

Monday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. RA, PL,
chance SN, FZRA.

Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely, FZRA, PL likely, chance SN.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHSN.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to
45 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...

Gale warnings in place for all waters tonight into Sunday
evening. Expect increasing SW winds tonight with gusts 35-40 kt
after midnight, and 40-45 kt west gusts over open waters on
Sunday. Winds slowly diminish during Sunday night. Generally
improving visibilities through sunrise Sunday.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, slight chance of
snow.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Rain, snow likely, freezing rain. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Slight chance of rain, slight chance of snow. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow
showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of snow
showers. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Sunday for MAZ023-024.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for MAZ002>016-018-
     019-021-022-026.
RI...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EST Sunday for RIZ008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>234-251-255-256.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ230.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ236.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ250-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...KJC/Loconto
MARINE...KJC/Loconto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>017-026-RIZ001>004-006-150730-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Washington RI-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, northern Rhode
Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ022>024-150730-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

RIZ005-007-008-150730-
Bristol RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Rhode Island and
southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ018>021-150730-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ235-237-251-256-150730-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ254-255-150730-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ250-150730-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ236-150730-
Narragansett Bay-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ231>234-150730-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ230-150730-
Boston Harbor-
228 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/us.nationalweatherservice.boston.gov

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
540 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>014-017-026-RIZ001-002-150130-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Northern Bristol MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield,
Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Taunton,
Ayer, Foster, Smithfield, and Providence
540 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

...AREAS OF FOG TO HAMPER TRAVEL THIS EVENING...

Areas of fog have developed across most of interior Massachusetts,
northern Connecticut and northern Rhode Island this evening.
While visibilities should be between one-half and 1 statute mile
in foggy areas, patches of dense fog with visibilities as low as
one- quarter mile are possible at times. Fog should become less
prevalent by late evening as south wind speeds increase.

Motorists should use caution if traveling this evening. Be
prepared for sudden reductions in visibility over short
distances. Use low-beam headlights.

Loconto