Alert archive / Massachusetts / Flood Watches in 2019

Flood Watch 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

April 18, 20194 counties in Massachusetts; Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this flood watch at Apr 18, 2019, 4:11 PM EDT for 4 counties in Massachusetts; Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, Connecticut. It took effect at Apr 20, 2019, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 13 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 18, 2019, 4:11 PM EDT (20:11 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 20, 2019, 2:00 AM EDT
Expired
Apr 20, 2019, 2:34 PM EDT
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA
Flood severity
None

Counties Capitol Planning Region, CT, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Worcester County, MA

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-04-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-04-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 313 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1505 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
313 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
723 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

631 
WGUS61 KBOX 182011
FFABOX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
411 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-190415-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FA.A.0002.190420T0600Z-190421T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
411 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a

* Flood Watch for northern Connecticut, as well as western and
  central Massachusetts. 

* From late Friday night through Saturday evening.

* Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers is expected to
  develop late Friday night continuing through Saturday evening.
  
* The longevity of the rainfall, possibly heavy at times, with
  amounts forecast around 1 to 2 inches poses the threat for 
  urban and poor drainage flooding. 

* In addition, forecast rainfall will also exacerbate mainstem
  river flooding along the Connecticut River. It may also  
  contribute to a few smaller streams throughout the watch area to
  reach minor flooding. 

* Those with interests in low lying or flood prone areas should 
  continue to monitor the latest forecasts. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Sipprell
7 follow-up statements
982 
WGUS61 KBOX 190303
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1103 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-191115-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0002.190420T0600Z-190421T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
1103 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northern Connecticut and Massachusetts, including 
  the following areas, in northern Connecticut, Hartford, 
  Tolland, and Windham. In Massachusetts, Franklin, Hampden, 
  Hampshire, and Worcester. 

* From late Friday night through Saturday evening

* Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers is expected to 
  develop late Friday night continuing through Saturday evening. 

* The longevity of the rainfall, possibly heavy at times, with 
  amounts forecast around 1 to 2 inches poses the threat for 
  urban and poor drainage flooding. 

* In addition, forecast rainfall will also exacerbate mainstem
  river flooding along the Connecticut River. It may also  
  contribute to a few smaller streams throughout the watch area to
  reach minor flooding. 

* Those with interests in low lying or flood prone areas should 
  continue to monitor the latest forecasts. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
995 
WGUS61 KBOX 190808
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
408 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-191615-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0002.190420T0600Z-190421T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
408 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northern Connecticut and Massachusetts, including 
  the following areas, in northern Connecticut, Hartford, 
  Tolland, and Windham. In Massachusetts, Franklin, Hampden, 
  Hampshire, and Worcester. 

* From late tonight through Saturday evening

* Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers is expected to 
  develop late Friday night continuing through Saturday evening. 

* Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
  may result in urban and poor drainage flooding.
 
* In addition, the heavy rainfall will exacerbate mainstem river
  flooding along the Connecticut River. It may also contribute to
  sharp rises for a few smaller streams throughout the watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
417 
WGUS61 KBOX 192000
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
400 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-200400-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0002.190420T0600Z-190421T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
400 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northern Connecticut and Massachusetts, including 
  the following areas, in northern Connecticut, Hartford, 
  Tolland, and Windham. In Massachusetts, Franklin, Hampden, 
  Hampshire, and Worcester. 

* From 2 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening

* Widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall is expected to
  develop late tonight, continuing through Saturday evening. 

* Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
  possible. This may result in urban and poor drainage flooding.
  
* In addition, the soaking rainfall will exacerbate or renew
  mainstem river flooding along the Connecticut River. It may 
  also contribute to sharp rises for a few smaller streams within 
  the watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
883 
WGUS61 KBOX 200159
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
959 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-201000-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0002.190420T0600Z-190421T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
959 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northern Connecticut and Massachusetts, including 
  the following areas, in northern Connecticut, Hartford, 
  Tolland, and Windham. In Massachusetts, Franklin, Hampden, 
  Hampshire, and Worcester. 

* From 2 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening

* Widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall is expected to 
  develop late tonight, continuing through Saturday evening. 

* Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts 
  possible. This may result in urban and poor drainage flooding. 

* In addition, the soaking rainfall will exacerbate or renew
  mainstem river flooding along the Connecticut River. It may 
  also contribute to sharp rises for a few smaller streams within 
  the watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
674 
WGUS61 KBOX 200808
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
408 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-201615-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-190421T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
408 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northern Connecticut and Massachusetts, including 
  the following areas, in northern Connecticut, Hartford, 
  Tolland, and Windham. In Massachusetts, Franklin, Hampden, 
  Hampshire, and Worcester. 

* Through this evening

* Widespread showers with locally heavy rainfall continue today
  before gradually shifting to eastern New Eng this afternoon and
  evening. 
 
* Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts
  are possible. This may result in urban and poor drainage 
  flooding. 

* In addition, the heavy rainfall will exacerbate or renew 
  mainstem river flooding along the Connecticut River. It may also
  contribute to sharp rises for a few smaller streams within the 
  watch area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
391 
WGUS61 KBOX 201540
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1140 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-202345-
/O.CON.KBOX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-190421T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
1140 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northern Connecticut and Massachusetts, including
  the following areas, in northern Connecticut, Hartford, Tolland,
  and Windham counties. In Massachusetts, Franklin, Hampden, 
  Hampshire, and Worcester counties. 

* Through this evening.

* Showers with locally heavy rainfall continue before gradually
  shifting to eastern New England late this afternoon into this
  evening. 

* Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts 
  possible. This may result in urban and poor drainage flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$
828 
WGUS61 KBOX 201834
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
234 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>004-008>012-201945-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-190421T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre, 
Fitchburg, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, and Worcester
234 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for portions of northern Connecticut and
Massachusetts has been cancelled. 

The heaviest rainfall has moved out of the region early this
afternoon. There may be some brief heavy downpours from any 
isolated thunderstorms that may push through this afternoon. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Apr 18, 4:03 PM EDT, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 18, 4:03 PM EDT, 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
403 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front lifts through Southern New England tonight and then
moves off to the north Friday. Warmer and more humid conditions
will stay with us Friday along with patchy light rain and drizzle
at times. A period of heavy rainfall is possible late Friday night
into Saturday night as slow moving low pressure approaches from
the west. The low pressure moves slowly across New England into
early next week. Off and on rain chances, perhaps a midweek dry
period before additional shower chances emerge late week into
the following weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

Warm front has advanced to Central New Jersey. With the upper
flow now turning from the southwest, expect the warm front to
trend north through Southern New England and off to the north.
This means a warmer more humid airmass moving into the region.
Expect low temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s early tonight
followed by slowly rising temperatures overnight.

Dry air at the surface and deep moisture above during the
evening, but this reverses as the warm airmass moves in. Expect
dry air above 850 mb and moist air below. Not much in the way of
showers, but with rising dew points in a moist surface airmass
we would expect sprinkles/drizzle during the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Trough digging over the Eastern USA becomes a closed low Friday.
This further turns the upper flow out of the south, drawing
unseasonably humid air north. Precip Water values of 1.5 to 1.75
inches are forecast. This would be ho-hum for July, but not so
for mid-April. Average values for mid-April are 0.6 inches, and
high-end observed over the past 70 years have been around 1.4
inches.

Model time cross-sections concur, showing deep moisture
returning Friday afternoon and Friday night. Dynamics are less
helpful. Zone of favorable upper jet dynamics remains over NY/PA
during the period while low level jet and transport of moisture
doesn't ramp up until Friday night. With this in mind, we will
maintain low-end chance pops much of the day, ramping up during
mid to late afternoon. Likely-to-categorical pops for Friday
evening and night, with highest values over Western MA and
Hartford County CT.

The low level jet, as mentioned, maintains a broad 50-knot zone
just offshore during the day. A 60-knot maxima then moves up the
coast late afternoon and evening with axis aimed mainly toward
our western areas. This supports the idea of higher pops in
Western sections during Friday night, as well as the start of
heavier rain especially in Western MA/Northern CT.

Mixing to 950 mb would support max sfc temps Friday in the mid
60s. Airmass over the southeast USA shows observed dew points in
the 50s and lower 60s. We will expect this for our area
Friday/Friday night in the warm sector south flow. So Friday
night min temps would be upper 50s and low 60s.

Gusty southwest winds continue due to the low level jet.
Mixing is limited, but even from 950 mb we would see 25-30
knots.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*/ Highlights ...

 - Saturday into Sunday, river flood concerns along with potential
urban / poor drainage flooding ... also potential coastal flood
issues along S-coastal New England

 - Monday into Tuesday, scattered shower activity along with cooler
conditions prevails beneath the slow moving area of low pressure

 - Wednesday onward, cooler conditions with shower chance could
possibly prevail

*/ Overview ...

Soaking rains. Echoes of a S Greenland block (+NAO) buckling the up-
stream pattern as progressive N Pacific flow maintains a continuous
feed of energy across the CONUS. Amplified H5 troughs, especially E
of the Rockies, dipping S, tapping the sub-tropics, pulling poleward
anomalous precipitable waters and much warmer air, slowed over the E
CONUS. H5 trough-ridge pattern, N Atlantic energy downshears by the
weekend into early next week yielding a rex-block that continues a
slowed upstream pattern. Depending on the aforementioned N Pacific
stream, could see a setup of on-again, off-again, decent rains that
are potentially soaking through the end of April. Sweeping frontal
boundaries, likely to see some temperature swings dictated by the
direction of the wind. Spring continues to prevail. Details as to
significant forecast concerns / threats and impacts below.

*/ Details ...

Saturday into Sunday ...

1.) Interior flooding:

High confidence mainstem CT per headwater snowmelt and forecast rain-
fall. MMEFS concerns also signaling some smaller streams throughout
S New England potentially seeing actionable to minor flood issues.

But not highly confident on significant interior flooding elsewhere.
Likely ponding on roadways and possible urban / poor-drainage flood
issues, but widespread impact is seemingly less with the latest 12z
suite of forecast guidance. Low undergoing full maturation towards
occlusion, dry air wrapping in within the mid-levels, losing deep
column moisture while it appears deep layer ascent is seemingly weak
to diffuse.

Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers and potential isolated
thunderstorms does appear likely and it looks like generally around
1-2 inches rainfall with locally higher amounts somewhere in S New
England. But not absolutely sure exactly where. Hopefully we'll gain
greater confidence as convective allowing models become available as
to where and when heaviest rainfall will occur.

Focus Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday, a slow moving system
up against a developing rex-block S of Greenland. Precipitable water
surge up around 1.5 inches beneath mid-level ascent and broader H3-5
diffluence aloft, but again, mid-level dry air could put the squash
on heavier rain outcomes. Lift/omega values up as high as around 20
micro-bars per second.

A feeling of a prolonged rain gradually adding up but not falling at
once, not exceeding flash flood guidance. FLOOD WATCH issued for the
W-half of S New England in collaboration with WPC and other WFOs. A
focus on Saturday to start coincident with EXCESSIVE RAINFALL out-
looks per WPC.

2.) Coastal flooding:

High astronomical tides plus longevity of S fetch, S-coast under the
greatest threat of inundation issues. MMEFS signaling tidal issues
at Westerly, RI. Particular focus within inner bays and sounds with
an eye on Narragansett and Buzzards Bay. Question whether if we push
over a foot of surge, then there's concern. Continual monitoring,
but right now it appears most spots will fall short.

3.) Winds:

H925 S winds broadly speaking 50-60 mph over all S New England with
possibly 70 mph along the immediate S coast. As to how effectively
these winds mix-down to the surface will need to be watched closely,
as to whether precipitation drag or isolated thunderstorms will
bring momentum downward and pose wind-related hazards to the region.

Much stronger inversion along the coast with cooler waters beneath
much warmer air aloft, however the threat exists more so across the
interior, especially the high terrain. Nevertheless, persistence of
15 to 25 mph S winds since Friday will ultimately aid in S surge of
water along the S-coast and the threat of coastal flooding noted
above.

Monday into Tuesday ...

Beneath the low, showers swirl. Winds subside thus the coastal flood
threat subsides. Additional water into the system but should remain
fairly light. Mainstem rivers remain in flood, perhaps some smaller
streams as well. Lean cooler conditions as the rex-block evolves to
the immediate E blocking the escape of the low E.

Wednesday onward ...

Perhaps drying out, warming up ... or additional upstream Pacific
energy continues the threat of scattered showers and cooler weather.
But then again 18.12z indications that the eroding rex-block keeps a
persistent H5 trof lingering over SE Canada, additional energy and
shower chances dropping S along with cooler conditions. Forecast
guidance has been adjusting, no true confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Widespread MVFR cigs spread over the region with potential for
some IFR cigs. Areas of sprinkles/drizzle/fog as well. Low level
jet at 2000 feet may cause low level wind shear especially
across the Cape/Islands/South coast.

Friday...Moderate confidence.
Widespread MVFR/IFR with patchy light rain/drizzle. SW gusts to
30 kt possible. Continued LLWS along the south coast and
Cape/Islands with S/SW winds 50-55 kt at 2k ft.

Friday night...Moderate confidence.
Widespread MVFR/IFR. Increased likelihood of showers,
especially from Worcester westward. Gusty winds with gusts to 30
kt. Low level wind shear continues.

KBOS terminal...High confidence in trends with cigs lowering to
MVFR/IFR. Moderate confidence in timing of any precipitation.

KBDL terminal...High confidence in trends but moderate
confidence in timing of any precipitation.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to
30 kt. RA, patchy BR.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, patchy FG.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, chance
SHRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence.

A low level jet about 2000 feet over the waters will persist
through Friday night. South-southeast winds this evening turn
from the southwest overnight. Sprinkles/drizzle/fog tonight and
Friday. Showers become more likely Friday night with reduced
visibility in showers and fog. Rough seas develop tonight and
linger through Friday night.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain likely, patchy
fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain likely,
patchy fog, slight chance of thunderstorms. Visibility 1 nm or
less.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance
of rain, chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

With the strong southerly winds aligned with astronomical high
tides due to the full moon late this week, there is a small chance
for that a few locations along the south coast may see minor
coastal flooding around high tide tonight. Most information
suggests some splashover but short of actual flooding. Will
monitor for potential coastal flood headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening
     for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from late Friday night through Saturday evening
     for MAZ002>004-008>012.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231>237-
     250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...WTB/Sipprell
MARINE...WTB/Sipprell
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WTB/Sipprell
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 18, 4:39 AM EDT, 11 hours 32 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
439 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>014-017-018-026-RIZ001-003-190845-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-
439 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts and northern
Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A wet storm system will affect the region with periods of moderate
to heavy rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Flooding is possible on
some rivers, streams, and in areas of poor drainage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ007-015-016-019>024-RIZ002-004>008-190845-
Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Nantucket MA-Southeast Providence RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
439 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts,
northeastern Massachusetts, southeastern Massachusetts, northern
Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong onshore winds may combine with astronomical high tides to
cause minor coastal flooding during the Thursday night and Friday
night high tides, especially along portions of south facing beaches.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-190845-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
439 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Nearby

Flood Watches in Massachusetts, 2019Flood Watches in Connecticut, 2019Every flood watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.