Red Flag Warning 9, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

330 
WWUS85 KBOU 292032
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
232 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TODAY AND MONDAY DUE TO WARM...DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS...

COZ212>214-216-241-245>247-249-300445-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190930T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0009.190930T1800Z-191001T0100Z/
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Washington County-
232 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FOR MIDDLE AND SOUTH
PARKS...HIGH MOUNTAINS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I70...SOUTHERN 
FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS... 
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT 
MONDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FOR MIDDLE AND SOUTH
PARKS...HIGH MOUNTAINS AROUND AND SOUTH OF I70...SOUTHERN 
FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 212...213...214...216... 
  241...245...246...247 and 249.

* Winds...South 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon, easing at sunset, then again on Monday
  afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ239-240-242>244-248-300100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190930T0100Z/
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-Northeast Weld County-
Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-Logan County-
232 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR AREAS STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN METRO AREAS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WELD
COUNTY...LOGAN AND MORGAN COUNTIES...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 239...240...242...243... 
  244 and 248.

* Winds...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon easing at sunset.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

831 
WWUS85 KBOU 300113
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
713 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXPECTED AGAIN FOR MONDAY DUE TO 
WARM...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS...

COZ212>214-216-241-245>247-249-300915-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190930T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0009.190930T1800Z-191001T0100Z/
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Washington County-
713 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE 
HUMIDITY FOR FOR MIDDLE AND SOUTH PARKS...HIGH MOUNTAINS AROUND 
AND SOUTH OF I70...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE AND MOST OF 
THE EASTERN PLAINS...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 212...213...214...216... 
  241...245...246...247 and 249.

* Winds...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon, easing at sunset, then again on 
  Monday afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ239-240-242>244-248-300215-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190930T0100Z/
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-Northeast Weld County-
Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-Logan County-
713 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR AREAS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN METRO AREAS
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WELD COUNTY...LOGAN AND MORGAN
COUNTIES...

Strong southwest winds will continue to decrease through the
evening hours with relative humidity expected to gradually increase
into the overnight period.

$$

514 
WWUS85 KBOU 300919
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
319 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY DUE TO WARM...DRY AND WINDY 
CONDITIONS...
...FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

COZ213-214-301800-
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.A.0005.191001T1800Z-191002T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0009.190930T1800Z-191001T0100Z/
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
319 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MIDDLE PARK
AND SOUTH PARK...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MIDDLE PARK
AND SOUTH PARK...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 213 and 214.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon, easing at sunset. Fire danger increases
  again Tuesday afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ212-216-241-245>247-249-301800-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0009.190930T1800Z-191001T0100Z/
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Washington County-
319 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE...AND
ADJACENT PLAINS SOUTHEAST OF I-76...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 212...216...241...245... 
  246...247 and 249.

* Winds...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...Winds and fire danger will increase by noon. Winds are
  expected to remain gusty much of this afternoon before 
  decreasing by dark. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

307 
WWUS85 KBOU 301843
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AGAIN TODAY DUE TO WARM...DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS... ...FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

COZ245-249-301945-
/O.CAN.KBOU.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-191001T0100Z/
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-Washington County-
1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE...AND ADJACENT PLAINS SOUTHEAST OF
I-76...

The National Weather Service in Denver has cancelled the Red Flag
Warning.

Increased moisture and lighter northerly winds have moved into the
area. Critical fire weather conditions are no longer present.

$$

COZ213-214-010245-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-191001T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.A.0005.191001T1800Z-191002T0100Z/
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MIDDLE PARK AND SOUTH
PARK...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
MIDDLE PARK AND SOUTH PARK...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 213 and 214.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon, easing at sunset. Fire danger 
  increases again Tuesday afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ212-216-241-246-247-010100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-191001T0100Z/
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
1243 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE...AND ADJACENT
PLAINS SOUTHEAST OF I-76...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 212...216...241...246 and 
  247.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...Winds and fire danger will increase by noon. Winds 
  are expected to remain gusty much of this afternoon before 
  decreasing by dark.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

434 
WWUS85 KBOU 302112
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
312 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO WARM, DRY, 
AND WINDY CONDITIONS... 

...FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

COZ213-214-010500-
/O.UPG.KBOU.FW.A.0005.191001T1800Z-191002T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOU.FW.W.0010.191001T1800Z-191002T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-191001T0100Z/
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
312 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MIDDLE PARK AND SOUTH
PARK...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FOR MIDDLE PARK AND SOUTH
PARK...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag
Warning FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, which is in effect
from noon to 7 PM MDT Tuesday. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 213 and 214.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...Through this afternoon, then easing at sunset. Fire 
  danger increases again Tuesday afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ212-216-241-246-247-010100-
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-191001T0100Z/
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
312 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE...AND ADJACENT
PLAINS SOUTHEAST OF I-76...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 212...216...241...246 and 
  247.

* Winds...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Timing...Winds are expected to remain gusty through this 
  afternoon before decreasing by dark.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

792 
WWUS85 KBOU 010122
RFWBOU

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
722 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH 
VALLEYS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

COZ213-214-010930-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-191001T0100Z/
/O.CON.KBOU.FW.W.0010.191001T1800Z-191002T0100Z/
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
722 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MIDDLE PARK AND
SOUTH PARK...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 213 and 214.

* Winds...South 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Timing...Through this afternoon, then easing at sunset. Fire 
  danger increases again Tuesday afternoon.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for the rapid ignition, 
  growth, and spread of fires

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ212-216-241-246-247-010230-
/O.EXP.KBOU.FW.W.0009.000000T0000Z-191001T0100Z/
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
722 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019

...RED FLAG WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT MONDAY HAS EXPIRED FOR 
WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...PALMER DIVIDE...AND ADJACENT 
PLAINS SOUTHEAST OF I-76...

Strong southwest winds will continue to decrease through the 
evening hours with relative humidity expected to gradually 
increase through the overnight period.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
347 AM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for much of our CWA today as there
will be elevated to critical fire danger. More information on this
threat can be found below in the fire weather discussion.

There are a few pockets of fog this morning mainly near the
Colorado/Nebraska border. Dry air seems to be effectively mixing
down towards the surface as clouds are eroding. The extent of the
fog is not widespread enough for a Dense Fog Advisory at this time.

A highly amplified pattern has setup across the US with a
trough over the west and ridge over the east. Colorado will in
between these features today and will be under strong, dry
southwesterly flow. Water vapor shows a dry intrusion nearing Las
Vegas this morning which is the main shortwave trough that will
rotate northeastward and produce strong lee cyclogenesis over
Wyoming. The combination of a deep surface low, a strong mid level
jet stream and warm temperatures allowing for deep mixing, will
create wind gusts up to 45 mph over the plains and 60 mph over the
higher terrain this afternoon. Winds gusting to 48 mph at Rifle
this morning are an indication that these winds are well on their
way. Highs will be well above normal and will likely reach the
upper 80s in Denver. A couple spots in the South Platter River
Valley may even reach 90. Dry conditions are expected everywhere
in the CWA except for the Park Range where a couple showers can't
be ruled out.

Tonight, there will be mild conditions before a weak cold front
sags into northern Colorado during the early morning hours. This
front is not expected to create precipitation as moisture will
only slightly increase behind the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

An upper level trough, over the nwrn US, will begin to elongate
on Mon from the nrn Rockies back into wrn areas of the Great
Basin. This will leave generally dry southwest flow aloft over the
area. At the sfc, low pres will be near Denver as a cool front
stalls from near Denver to Akron. North of the front, highs will
drop into the 70's while south of it readings will range from the
80's to around 90.

For Mon night into Tue, the elongated upper level trough will
move slowly eastward, with mainly dry southwest flow aloft
remaining in place. Meanwhile, there will be a stronger surge of
cooler air moving across nern CO as upslope flow develops east of
the divide. Soundings still show potential for very light
rain/drizzle overnight thru Tue morning from the foothills across
portions of the plains. In addition, it looks like low level
cloud cover may linger thru the aftn as well, from the foothills
across the plains. As a result highs over nern CO may range from
the upper 40s near the WY-NE border with mainly 50s elsewhere.

By Tue night, there are some significant differences between the
models, as to potential for precip across the plains. The GFS
doesn't show much precip overnight while the ECMWF has better
coverage of light showers. The ECMWF does has a weak disturbance
moving across with some mid level ascent. In addition, it has the
right exit region of an upper jet, possibly affecting nern CO as
well. At this point will not yo-yo fcst and keep in a good chc of
light showers across the plains.

For Wed thru Wed night, the srn portion of the elongated upper
level trough will move across the area. Once again the ECMWF and
GFS diverge on precip potential mainly across the plains. As the
trough moves across, there will be another shot of mid level
ascent late in the aftn thru Wed evening. The ECMWF generates
another round of light precip across the plains Wed evening while
the GFS has nothing. For now will keep in a chc of precip based on
the ECMWF solution. As for highs, readings will remain below
normal with temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s over nern CO.

Looking ahead to Thu, drier air will spread across, as the upper
level trough moves eastward. By Fri, the flow aloft will become
southwesterly as a weaker upper level trough approaches from the
western US. There may be enough moisture embedded in the flow to
produce a slight chc of showers over the higher terrain.
Temperatures will rise back to seasonal levels by Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 317 AM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday night. A boundary
recently shifted winds northwesterly at DEN and cooled
temperatures 10 degrees. With the dew point depressions around 2
degrees behind this boundary, there remains a chance that fog
develops over DEN this morning shortly before sunrise. However,
this chance is low since warm, dry air seems to be mixing down to
the low levels as evidenced by the clouds eroding across the
northeast plains this morning.

The main issue today will be how strong the wind gusts get. Since
gusts reached 40 knots at DEN yesterday and with the trough moving
closer to Colorado today, it should be windier. Brief gusts may
reach into the low 40s. Otherwise, winds will return toward
drainage tomorrow night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Sun Sep 29 2019

There is high confidence that widespread critical fire weather
conditions will develop this afternoon. The warm and dry
southwesterly flow will allow relative humidities to drop to as
low as 10 percent over the plains and 13 percent over the higher
terrain. Winds will be sustained between 20-30 mph with gusts up
to 45 mph over the plains and up to 60 mph across higher terrain.
Nearly all locations in our CWA will be under the Red Flag Warning
except for some of the northern tier of counties. One change that
was made to the forecast was to include Logan and northeast Weld
Counties to the warning. This is because clouds have eroded due to
dry air mixing down toward the surface this morning. This should
allow for more sunshine throughout the day resulting in better
mixing and warmer and windier conditions than originally expected.

Fire Danger will remain critical over Middle and South Parks,
the southern Foothills and across nern CO, south and southeast of
a Denver to Akron line on Monday, due to gusty south to southwest
winds and low humidity.

A cold front will move across nern CO Mon night and will bring
much cooler temperatures and higher humidity on Tuesday, across
the Foothills and plains. However along and west of the divide it
will remain dry and windy with high fire danger expected for
Tuesday afternoon across the higher valleys.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for
COZ212>214-216-239>249.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Monday for COZ212>214-216-
241-245>247-249.

&&

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Danielson
FIRE WEATHER...Danielson/RPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1048 AM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019

COZ030>051-291700-
Jackson County Below 9000 Feet-
West Jackson and West Grand Counties Above 9000 Feet-
Grand and Summit Counties Below 9000 Feet-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet-
South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/
Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000 Feet-Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet-
Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet/Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000 Feet-
Central and Southeast Park County-
Larimer County Below 6000 Feet/Northwest Weld County-
Boulder And Jefferson Counties Below 6000 Feet/West Broomfield
County-
North Douglas County Below 6000 Feet/Denver/West Adams and
Arapahoe Counties/East Broomfield County-
Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000 Feet-
Northeast Weld County-Central and South Weld County-Morgan County-
Central and East Adams and Arapahoe Counties-
North and Northeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/North Lincoln
County-
Southeast Elbert County Below 6000 Feet/South Lincoln County-
Logan County-Washington County-Sedgwick County-Phillips County-
1048 AM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...Red Flag Warning for portions of the higher terrain and plains
on Sunday from noon until 7 pm...

...Fire Weather Watch for portions of the higher terrain and
plains Monday afternoon through early Monday evening...

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeast and north central
Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of fog will continue over northern Larimer County for the
rest of the morning, impacting drivers along Highway 287.

A few showers may be possible over the far eastern plains into
the early afternoon as well as over the mountains, otherwise a
windy day is in store. Gusty winds up to 40 mph in the mountains
and 25 to 35 mph over the plains will be possible all day and
overnight, with only slight weakening overnight.

Areas of dense fog may creep into the far northeastern corner
after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Critical fire danger will be in place Sunday afternoon and early
evening due to gusty winds and low humidity levels across portions
of the higher terrain and plains. Southwest winds will gust from
50 to 60 mph at times over the higher terrain with 35 to 50 mph
across portions of the plains.

Critical fire danger may occur again Monday afternoon due to
gusty southwest winds and low humidity levels across portions of
the higher terrain and plains.

Fire danger will decrease east of the divide on Tuesday as a cold
front moves across northeast Colorado. However, west of the divide
fire danger will remain elevated.  There will be a good chance of
showers across portions of the plains Tuesday night and again
Wednesday night. Over the higher terrain rain chances will be
lower.

Thursday looks dry across the forecast area with moisture
increasing on Friday and a chance of late day showers and
thunderstorms for most areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.