Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Boise, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
250 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...Thunderstorms initiated in Baker County
around noon PDT and along the Nevada border about the same
time.  At 1 PM PDT one particularly strong thunderstorm
was nearly stationary in southern Baker County and dropping
hail and heavy rain.  A severe thunderstorm warning was
issued for that storm but the heavy rain may prove to be
the greater hazard.  For this evening models target southern
Harney and Malheur Counties and the Owyhee Mountains for
greatest instability and precipitation.  Most models keep
precipitation south of the Snake River but some bring it a
little farther north where southerly outflow winds can
spread into the Treasure Valley.  The storms will end late
tonight.  Friday looks drier as convective potential shifts
east of our CWA.  Friday night and Saturday look clear with
light west/northwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Tuesday...Northwest flow
will continue with above normal temperatures (around 5 degrees)
expected. A slight chance of thunderstorms will exist during
the afternoons over the central ID mountains.
Tuesday night through Thursday night...Warm, clear, and breezy
are the expected conditions across the region as a dry upper
zonal flow patterns dominates. Look for these conditions to
persist with the exception of the West Central Mountains where
the outer edge of an upper level disturbance is expected to
brush the area Thursday sparking a few showers (mostly in
Valley County). High and low temperatures are expected to hover
a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Showers and thunderstorms developing and
becoming scattered by 22z. Stronger storms will produce brief
MVFR and hail. Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 45kt are
possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Outside of
thunderstorms expect westerly surface winds 5-15kt. Winds
aloft at 10k ft MSL: W-NW 10-20kt.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Mostly clear. Light winds.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....KA/WH
AVIATION.....KA

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