Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0322 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2019/

Today and Tonight.

Today will be nearly a repeat of the past couple of days. The main
trough axis remains stretched through Gulf States, keeping a
stationary boundary draped across portions of Central AL. We will
also have a weak upper level vort max lift northeastward through
South-Central AL into Central Georgia through the day. This,
combined with the boundary, will help provide extra lift to
generate numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening. Scattered thunderstorm development could start
later this morning, increase in coverage through the afternoon and
begin to diminish this evening. The highest coverage will likely
be in the eastern half of the state due to the passing of the
upper level vort max, with our western counties only seeing
scattered thunderstorms. Based on latest high resolution guidance,
we should become mostly rain- free around midnight. Some guidance
suggests we could see some re- development in the early morning
across the northern portions of Central AL, though with the
anticipated overnight stabilization, I don't think we'll see much
more than isolated development before sunrise. Given there hasn't
been much change in the overall pattern, temperatures today will
be similar to the past few days with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90 and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

25/Owen

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0322 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2019/

Sunday through Friday.

Only a gradual eastward progression of the mid/upper-level pattern
is expected through the period. A Pacific trough will begin to
nudge the anticyclone currently centered over the Four Corners
eastward to west Texas. Troughing will deepen over eastern Canada
and the Northeast CONUS, while the weaker trough currently
centered over Alabama and the central Gulf will drift eastward to
Georgia and the eastern Gulf. This will set up northwest flow
aloft over Central Alabama with the potential for weak waves to
move through. This pattern will also keep any potential tropical
development well east of the Gulf, in the Atlantic basin. On
Sunday, a vort max associated with the transition to northwest
flow aloft, PWATs near 2 inches, 850-700mb mean RH values around
80-85%, and continued presence of a weak surface trough associated
with the remnants of an old frontal boundary will result in
numerous showers and storms developing by afternoon. This will
limit high temperatures somewhat, but still expect highs within a
couple degrees either side of 90F around midday before storms
develop. While moist profiles will limit the microburst potential
with individual cells, around 15kts of 0-6 km shear associated
with slightly enhanced mid-level flow could allow for a couple
gusts of 30-40 mph along gust fronts.

Highest rain chance for Monday will be across the southern/eastern
counties where moisture remains enhanced along the eastward-moving
trough axis. But lingering PWATs still around 1.7 inches, low-
level convergence, and another weak disturbance in the northwest
flow will allow for scattered showers/storms to develop in the
northern and western counties as well. Some mid-level drying,
around 15-20 kts of northwesterly mid-level flow, and 500mb temps
around -8 to -9C will result in the potential for gusty winds
with any storms. Mid-levels continue to dry out on Tuesday, which
should keep any convection very isolated across the northern half
of the area with only scattered coverage in the south. The
forecast becomes a bit more uncertain Tuesday night through the
rest of the week. The GFS is a bit stronger with another wave
moving through late Tuesday night into Wednesday and more
amplified with eastern CONUS troughing in general, resulting in a
weak frontal passage and drier air briefly moving in before
another wave arrives Thursday night. Meanwhile the ECMWF is less
amplified with a more uniformly moist air mass over the area,
reflecting the typical trends of each model. Another thing to
monitor will be any convection developing upstream given the
northwest flow aloft. With a lack of run to run consistency in the
deterministic models and ensembles, our forecast for now will
indicate scattered showers/storms each day, favoring the typical
afternoon and early evening hours.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will continue to pester
most of the TAF sites through this afternoon. Amendments from VCTS
to prevailing TSRA may become necessary. Activity should diminish
during the evening and overnight hours.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum relative humidity values over the next few days will be
generally in the 50s to 60s. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon. Significant fire
weather concerns are not expected due to higher relative humidity
values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  87  68  88  67 /  30  70  30  50  20
Anniston    69  87  69  88  69 /  30  70  40  60  20
Birmingham  72  89  71  90  71 /  30  70  40  50  20
Tuscaloosa  72  90  72  91  71 /  30  70  40  50  20
Calera      69  88  70  89  70 /  30  70  40  50  20
Auburn      71  87  70  86  70 /  30  60  50  70  30
Montgomery  71  91  72  90  71 /  30  60  50  60  30
Troy        69  89  70  88  70 /  30  60  40  70  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
329 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-041130-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
329 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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