Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
315 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Isolated storms have developed across the northeast counties of
central Alabama along the back side of an upper trof over the
eastern United States. With plenty of dry aloft for evaporative
cooling, expect some of the storms to contain wind gusts 40-45
mph and small hail. Stronger ridge over west Alabama should keep
activity for areas mainly east of I-65. The activity will linger
into the evening hours, and continued isolated storms.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
/Issued at 330 AM CT/

Friday through Wednesday.

The upper level disturbance will slowly exit the region
Friday. With this in place and another warm day expected, look
for at least isolated showers or afternoon thunderstorm in the
east. Highs will be in the upper 80s with lows in the mid 60s.

Surface high pressure continues eastward on Saturday increasing
southerly flow and moisture back into the region. An upper level
trough slides through the Central Plains as a surface low lifts
northeastward Saturday through Sunday. A southward extending cold
front associated with the surface low will begin to move towards the
area on Sunday increasing rain chances. There still remains some
uncertainty regarding coverage Sunday through Monday. However, the
best chances look to be in our northern and western counties so I
have increased PoPs in these areas. Have kept the chance for
thunderstorms during this time frame given daytime instability and
frontal lifting.

This boundary will lift northeast Monday night/Tuesday, clipping our
far northern counties. Upper level riding begins to become more
amplified across the southeastern US as another upper level trough
and surface low dig through the Plains. Therefore, minimal rain
chances are expected through at least the middle of next week.
Temperatures in the extended look to be slightly above average with
most area reaching the upper 80's during the day.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will continue through this forecast period with
high pressure and subsidence limiting organized thunderstorm
activity this afternoon. A cumulus deck has begun developing
across the area and daytime heating should be sufficient to
develop a couple isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, but the
lack of an organized lifting mechanism and region wide sinking
motion should limit widespread activity. Left thunder out for now
but will amend if necessary.

86

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A slow moving upper level disturbance will help provide isolated
to scattered showers/storms to the area today and tomorrow. Min RH
values will be in the 40 to 50 percent range. Dry weather returns
Saturday, with a front approaching the area on Sunday
night/Monday. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  87  64  87  64 /  20  20  10  10  10
Anniston    63  87  65  87  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
Birmingham  67  88  68  88  66 /  20  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  66  90  67  88  65 /  20  10   0  10  10
Calera      64  86  66  87  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
Auburn      65  85  66  87  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
Montgomery  66  89  66  89  65 /  20  20  10  10  10
Troy        65  87  65  88  65 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
349 AM CDT Thu May 16 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-171200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
349 AM CDT Thu May 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
351 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

ALZ017-026-162115-
St. Clair AL-Blount AL-
351 PM CDT Thu May 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BLOUNT AND NORTHERN
ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Inland Lake, or near Oneonta, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springville, Odenville, Margaret, Argo, Ashville, Ragland, Inland
Lake, Branchville, Highland Lake, Whitney Junction, St. Clair
Springs, Wattsville, Holly Springs, Caldwell, Horse Pens Forty, I 59
Rest Areas At Oneonta and Remlap.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8637 3397 8634 3394 8637 3394 8633
      3396 8632 3383 8611 3370 8620 3364 8637
      3375 8654 3377 8654 3377 8657 3383 8667
      3387 8648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 310DEG 17KT 3386 8642

40/Sizemore

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
407 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE ANNISTON          33.64N 85.82W
05/16/2019                   CALHOUN            AL   PUBLIC

            A TREE AND POWER POLE WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

MAL

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