Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
141 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving into our far northwest
counties at this time with potential for some severe thunderstorms
containing a risk for winds, hail and a few tornadoes.

Sufficient wind shear exists across our western and northern
counties for severe thunderstorms and the risk of tornadoes this
afternoon and evening. Sufficient instability is more confined to
our western counties at this point but is expected to expand
further east into the central portion of our forecast area later
this afternoon and evening.

BMX 14/18z sounding continues to indicate a cap in the 800-700 mb
layer but surface temperatures have warmed enough to result in
some positive buoyancy that is able to overcome the warm layer
aloft. This along with increased forcing is allowing showers to
increase in coverage across our western counties.

The risk for thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will persist
through the rest of the afternoon across our northwest and west-
central counties then the risk shifts eastward toward the I-65
corridor from late afternoon through early evening. The best
combination of wind shear along with instability will reside
generally near and north of the I-20 corridor.

Instability is expected to wane through the evening across our
eastern counties as dynamics pull northeast into the Tennessee
River Valley tonight. As a result the severe storm potential
gradually decreases this evening and into the overnight hours.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue, however, as this
system slides east across the entire area this afternoon and
tonight followed by cold air advection becoming dominant from west
to east tonight and into Friday. Lows will range from the mid 40's
northwest to the mid 60's overnight while highs Friday will
struggle to reach the low 60's across much of our forecast area
with exception being our far southeast counties where highs will
manage to reach near 70.

Dry conditions are forecast Friday night and into the day
Saturday with lows ranging from mid 30's northwest to the mid 40's
southeast. Highs will range from the mid 50's northwest to the
low 60's southeast.

05

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday.

By Friday morning the surface cold front has cleared our southeast
counties. Have kept the mention of chance and likely post frontal
PoPs generally along and south of the I-59 corridor as low and mid
level RH values remain nearly saturated and forcing is maintained in
the upper levels. Rain chances gradually decrease from northwest to
southeast throughout the day Friday. Noticeably cooler temperatures
are expected Friday night as northerly winds advect cooler air into
the area. Cloud cover and elevated winds should prevent frost in our
far northern counties Friday evening.

A less active and quieter weather is expected for the latter part of
the weekend into much of next week. By Saturday, upper level
troughing has pushed towards the east coast, while split flow begins
to dominate the west coast. Subsidence and confluent flow
characterize the upper levels, while the surface is dominated by
high pressure. For much of this period, conditions will be drier
and cooler for Central Alabama. High temperatures will generally
be in the 50's and 60's. Low temperatures ranging from the upper
30's to 40's. The exception will be for Saturday night as low
temperatures in our northern counties will be in the low 30's.
Clear skies and calm to light surface winds could allow for patchy
frost to develop in our far northern counties Saturday night.
Will continue to monitor the potential for frost through the
remainder of the period as moisture associated with upper level
waves of energy and surface wind speed could impact development.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Radar currently showing TSRA convection across MS with only a few
showers across Central Alabama. That will change as MS convection
moves into the west part of the state over the next hour or two.
Have timed convection with pre-frontal and front for terminals.
Some sites will go VFR for a few hours this afternoon outside of
convection, but should go down this evening as front nears. Winds
stay up this afternoon then shift as front nears. Post front rain
is possible for some for early Friday.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, becoming
more widespread during the late afternoon and evening. A few
strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening
especially west of Interstate 59. Winds will be gusty now through
this evening. However, with high relative humidity and saturated
soil conditions, there are no fire weather concerns expected at
this time. Rain lingers into Friday. Dry conditions are expected
for the weekend on through the beginning of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     53  60  37  55  35 /  90  30   0   0   0
Anniston    54  60  39  57  36 /  90  50  10   0   0
Birmingham  53  61  39  57  37 /  90  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  53  62  41  58  37 /  90  20  10   0   0
Calera      54  60  40  57  38 /  90  40  10   0   0
Auburn      59  62  42  59  39 /  70  70  20  10   0
Montgomery  60  62  44  61  40 /  80  70  20  10   0
Troy        61  64  45  60  41 /  70  70  40  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Clay...Cleburne...
Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion...
Pickens...Randolph...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-152100-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1258 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Severe storms are possible through 1 AM Friday. While isolated
severe storms are possible as far south as a Demopolis to Clanton to
Wedowee line, the highest threat will be along and west of the
Interstate 59 corridor. Threats will include isolated tornadoes and
quarter size hail, with isolated damaging winds also possible.

Breezy conditions will continue today. Gradient winds could gust as
high as 35 mph through 6 PM along and north of a Demopolis to Calera
to Wedowee line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Temperatures are expected to drop into the low 30s in far northern
counties on Sunday morning, and some isolated locations could drop
below freezing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon and evening.

08

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
402 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARLEY                   34.09N 87.20W
03/14/2019                   WINSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            BLEACHERS WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE FIRE
            STATION. BASEBALL DUGOUT DAMAGED.

&&

MAL