Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
404 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0349 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/

Thunderstorms have developed across northwest Alabama ahead of an
outflow boundary. The HRRR model has been forecasting this
development since early this morning and has the activity pushing
southeast through the I-20/59 corridor during the late afternoon
and early evening hours. The most unstable air mass was located
across west Alabama where surface dewpoints were in the middle to
upper 70s and surface based CAPE values near 4500 J/kg. The
limiting factor is an axis of minimum DCAPE (<1000) across the
same area. This will hinder downdraft potential, and so far there
have been no reports of significant wind. Since the activity is
more surface based with little upper level support, expect a
significant decrease in areal coverage by 8 pm. Any remaining
activity should be south of I-20 by 9 pm, with only isolated
showers after midnight.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0322 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019/
Wednesday through Tuesday.

The cold front finally pushes through Central AL on Wednesday. I
think it will be mostly south of our area by the late morning/early
afternoon, but we might see some lingering shower activity
associated with the frontal forcing along the far southern counties
tomorrow afternoon. This should diminish by the evening with drier,
northerly flow pushing in. High pressure builds in Thursday morning,
leading to mostly clear skies. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to
low 60s by Thursday morning, which in conjunction with mostly
clear skies, will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid
60s for much of Central AL both Thursday morning and Friday
morning. Later Friday morning, the center of the high pressure has
shifted eastward over the Central Appalachians. This will lead
wedging with winds becoming more easterly across Central AL. A
moisture boundary will slide east to west through the day on
Friday. This likely won't have much immediate impact to our
sensible weather, but the increased moisture could limit our
morning lows for Saturday to the upper 60s to low 70s.

The easterly flow becomes more important over the weekend and into
early next week. By Saturday evening, Tropical Storm Dorian is
forecast by NHC to be in the northern portions of the Bahamas, and
just off the southeastern coast of Florida. While we won't see any
direct impacts from Dorian through the next 7 days in Central AL,
the tropical moisture is expected to lift northwestward due to the
easterly flow. Model guidance varies substantially on just how far
north that moisture gets this weekend, so I'll keep PoPs on the
lower side (20-40%) through early next week due to the overall
uncertainty.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Deep moisture and weak lift will result in widespread cloud cover
with cigs 3-5k feet agl and lcl MVFR cigs thru 20z. Sct showers
will impact KANB thru 21z, with more organized convection expected
across central Alabama between 21z and 02z. A line of storms will
likely develop over nw Alabama arnd 20z, and track quickly
southeast. The line will weaken as it approaches the I-85
corridor. The storms will produce vsbys blo 3 miles and wind gusts
30-35 kts. Overall convective activity will diminish by 02z, but
sct shwrs will continue overnight at KMGM and KTOI. A cold front
will bring north winds and drier air into north Alabama by 12z,
with any pcpn shifting into south Alabama after 12z. Expect low
cigs and fog to develop across south Alabama after 06z ahead of
the advancing cold front.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances remain elevated within a moist airmass, with light
rain or drizzle possible early Tuesday morning. Low clouds and fog
should be expected across the area this morning. Scattered to
numerous coverage is expected through the day ahead of an
approaching cold front. A few thunderstorms will be possible. With
the increased moisture, minimum relative humidity values will be
elevated as well through tonight.

A surface frontal boundary is expected to move into through the
area tonight. Although drier air will arrive, minimum relative
humidity values for the end of the week should still remain above
critical levels, with drier conditions for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  88  62  88  61 /  50  10   0   0   0
Anniston    71  89  63  89  63 /  50  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  72  89  64  90  65 /  40  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  73  89  64  89  63 /  40  10   0   0   0
Calera      71  89  63  90  63 /  50  10   0   0   0
Auburn      72  89  67  90  68 /  30  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  74  91  67  92  68 /  40  20   0   0   0
Troy        72  90  67  92  67 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
429 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-281230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
429 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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