Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
114 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.UPDATE...
Afternoon Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Primary concern in the short-term period remains the MCS that
continues to move southeast across northern Mississippi.
Convection continues to develop along and near the cold pool
outflow from the MCS and shower/thunderstorm activity is expected
to continue to expand across our northwest counties into our
central counties for the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening hours.

A few remnant boundaries from convection yesterday have been
providing surface convergence for additional convective
development further east of the advancing MCS outflow. This
activity will also continue to persist this afternoon and evening.

Low clouds this morning helped to maintain some stability across
our eastern counties and with exception for northern Blount County
little convection has developed this afternoon across these
areas.

Despite ample instability, decent lapse rates and strong solar
insolation, the lack of vertical wind shear and very light winds
aloft are resulting in slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with
generally brief opportunities to reach near severe limits with
downbursts and hailstones. Overall, the potential for organized
wide-spread severe storms remains low and this is the rationale
for maintaining the marginal risk for severe storms across our
northwest counties through mid evening.

Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to continue to advance
southeast across much of the forecast area this afternoon and
evening with convection likely lingering through late evening. A
few strong to severe storms will remain possible with most likely
pulse in nature with a localized damaging wind and hail threat.

As the cold pool advances southeast expect temperatures to fall
into the 70's far northwest and expand southeast with time. Lows
tonight will range from the mid 60's north to near 70 far south.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Issued at 325 Am CDT/

Friday through Wednesday.

No major changes were made to the long-term forecast tonight as
the weak flow regime remains in place with a tropical airmass
across the Southeast. As a result, typical summer temperature
ranges are expected with 80s/90s for afternoon highs, and 60/70s
for overnight lows. Diurnally driven PoPs are also expected with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms as convective temperatures are
reached. Obviously no one particular area favors the other after
about Sun as small- scale features (such as antecedent
outflow/theta-a boundaries) are rather unpredictable, though have
tried to focus Fri/Sat PoPs on areas likely to have higher PWs. A
couple meandering mesoscale vortex features are still likely to be
across the region, along with an upper-level shortwave progged to
evolve into a cut-off low which will rotate from the mid/lower
Mississippi River Valley south then westward toward Texas by the
weekend. These sorts of features will be a factor in specific
spatial areas receiving more rainfall during this time as well,
though after Sunday appear to be out of the picture. Nonetheless,
slight chance to chance afternoon PoPs have been maintained
through next week as Gulf moisture and warm summer weather is
expected to continue, with warmest temperatures of the long-term
(widespread 90s) trending by Mon/Tue.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

All eyes are on the southeastward advancing MCS entering into
northwest Alabama this afternoon. TSRA was added in for TCL, BHM,
and EET beginning as early as 19Z. Confidence is a bit shaky on
exactly how far east the storms will progress, but seeing as how
it is early in the afternoon with plenty of unstable air left to
ingest, TSRA is also in the forecast for ANB and ASN for late
afternoon. Shortly after sunset, storms should begin losing
intensity and coverage, so left TSRA out for MGM and TOI.
Amendments will be used as necessary to cover any sporadic
development in the southeast. After activity weakens this evening,
ceilings will rise leaving a deck of high clouds and VFR
conditions through the remainder of this cycle.

86

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will affect much of our
northwest counties this afternoon with good chances for wetting
rains across much of our northern and central counties through
late this evening. High temperatures will remain near or slightly
above normal through this week while minimum relative humidity
values should remain in the 40 to 50 percent range with exception
across the southeast where values may fall into the upper 30
percent range during the afternoon hours. Continued chances for
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is expected over the
next several days.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  90  67  89  68 /  80  30  20  30  10
Anniston    68  91  69  90  69 /  50  30  20  30  10
Birmingham  70  93  71  91  71 /  80  30  20  30  20
Tuscaloosa  70  93  72  92  72 /  80  30  20  30  20
Calera      68  91  69  90  70 /  60  20  20  30  20
Auburn      70  90  71  89  70 /  30  20  20  40  20
Montgomery  70  93  72  92  71 /  30  20  20  40  20
Troy        69  91  70  90  70 /  30  30  20  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

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