Frost Advisory 2, NWS Birmingham, AL

Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Marion County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL, Walker County, AL, Winston County, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
109 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1124 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2019/

Based on temperature trends, will nudge highs up a couple degrees
across the board this afternoon. No other major changes made to
the ongoing forecast.

Will then need to look at updated low temperature forecasts for
tonight, and will probably need to transition the freeze watch to
a warning before to long.

/61/

Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 0333 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2019/

Through Tonight.

A reinforcing cold front will come through during the afternoon.
Winds will pick up as the front moves through, but that is really
it. There is no moisture to work with so the front will move
through dry, and even perhaps cloudless. High pressure will build
in behind the front and we will need to watch for sub-freezing
temperatures again tonight. Look for low 30s north to upper 30s
south. There may be just enough wind to limit the frost potential
across the south. With still some uncertainty on how far south the
freezing temperatures will make it in 24 hours, opted for a
freeze watch for now.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0333 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2019/

Sunday through Friday.

High pressure will remain in place across the southeastern CONUS
on Sunday with a large upper-level trough encompassing most of
the U.S. and Canada east of the Rockies. Temperatures will start
out in the 30s, but sunny skies and a very dry airmass will favor
temperatures recovering into the upper 50s and lower 60s for
Sunday afternoon. The surface ridge axis extending westward from
the Carolinas will promote light winds and radiational cooling
Sunday night with mid 30s to lower 40s for lows on Monday morning.
Patchy frost is expected across our northern counties and
typically colder locations of East-Central Alabama.

A warming and slow moistening trend is expected for Monday through
Wednesday night with persistent west-southwest flow at the base of
the large-scale trough anchored to our north. Due to the absence
of discernible focus or lifting mechanisms, rain has been kept out
of the forecast for this period.

The next significant weather system may begin to affect the region
on Thursday as a southern stream shortwave ejects in conjunction
with a northern stream wave moving across the northern CONUS. This
could result in rain becoming widespread Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Due to model timing discrepancies and confidence
in the amount of lift, rain chances will be held in the 30-40
percent range for now. With a 1040+ mb high pressure surging
southward across the Plains, a strong cold frontal passage should
bring dry conditions and a sharp drop in temperatures for Friday
into Friday night.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions forecast across all sites through the next 24
hours. There could be some river/valley fog again tonight, like
last night. But I doubt that will have any impact on any of the
central Alabama terminals. Will just need to watch ANB and ASN.
Otherwise, clear skies with winds becoming light around sunset.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will keep conditions dry across central Alabama for
at least several more days.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Freeze Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday morning for the
following counties: Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Clay...
Cleburne...Etowah...Fayette...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion...
Randolph...Shelby...St. Clair...Talladega...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
341 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-031145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
341 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Temperatures are expected to drop to near or just below freezing for
the northern areas of Central Alabama overnight into Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.