Wind Advisory 6, NWS Bismarck, ND

021 
WWUS73 KBIS 290345
NPWBIS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1045 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

NDZ040-043-044-290445-
/O.CAN.KBIS.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-190929T0600Z/
Slope-Bowman-Adams-
Including the cities of Marmarth, Bowman, and Hettinger
945 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has cancelled the Wind
Advisory. 

Gusty easterly winds will slowly weaken over the next few hours
across southwest North Dakota. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
235 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Widespread light to moderate rain will overspread western and
central North Dakota this evening and continue through Sunday. A
few strong thunderstorms are also possible on Sunday to the south.

Observed 12z upper air analysis depicts a large upper level low
centered over the northwest United States, with low amplitude
ridging downstream and a few shortwaves embedded within southwest
flow across the Dakotas. This puts the Northern Plains region in
an area of strong PVA and weak WAA, contributing to synoptic
scale forcing for ascent. At the surface, a low pressure system is
beginning to develop over northeast Wyoming. This low will
continue to deepen as it progresses northeastward across the
Dakotas. Widespread light to moderate rain will be accompanied
with this low, which has already begun spreading into southwestern
North Dakota early this afternoon. The latest suite of model
guidance agrees well on the timing and coverage of this area of
rain, which will continue spreading across North Dakota this
evening through tonight. Ridging across the Great Lakes region
will contribute to the slow movement of this surface low on
Sunday, leading to another stormy day.

In fact, some thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon
through Sunday night across southern North Dakota as a well
defined warm sector forms across the Dakotas. The 12z GFS/EURO
both agree well on 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE across southern
North Dakota during this time, collocated with 50 to 65 kts of
effective bulk shear. In addition, a surface cold front will also
be present. With that being said, shear vectors will be oriented
nearly parallel to the front, which would suggest a congealed
multicellular storm mode after a few initially discrete storms.
Forecast soundings depict an environment that would require
thunderstorms to be elevated in nature, which should somewhat
limit the threat for damaging wind gusts. Nevertheless, large hail
up to the size of half dollars may be possible with any initially
discrete cells that may form. The 12z iteration of the HRRR does
show a few discrete cells Sunday afternoon and evening across
portions of southwest and south central North Dakota. Overall, the
severe weather threat looks rather low given the low CAPE/high
shear environment and the messy storm mode/elevated nature of
these storms. It is unclear if shear will be too high for the
rather limited amount of CAPE that will be present on Sunday.
Heavy rain will also be a concern, as areas that receive the
heaviest rain rates could experience some flooding.

Expect lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s tonight, with highs ranging
from the mid 40s north to the mid 60s south for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

The cooler and wetter than normal weather pattern will continue
through the long term forecast.

Saturday and Sunday's low pressure system will linger over the
area Sunday night, before departing the region on Monday.
Widespread rain is likely across all of western and central North
Dakota Sunday night through Monday morning, with conditions
beginning to dry out Monday afternoon and evening. Excess cloud
cover and precipitation will keep temperatures on the chilly side
for this time of year, with highs mainly in the upper 40s to upper
50s on Monday. A cold front looks to move through the area Monday
night.

It appears clouds will linger behind the cold front on Tuesday,
with limited clearing during the afternoon. These clouds, along
with strong CAA, will lead to high temps only in the mid to upper
40s across western and central North Dakota. Although a few post
frontal showers will be possible, a mainly dry day is expected.

Long term model guidance begins to disagree quite a bit on
Wednesday, with the GFS keeping the area dry and the EURO bringing
in another round of rain. Both models keep the area dry on
Thursday and most of Friday. Although the precipitation forecast
is quite uncertain during this time, there is higher confidence
in temperatures remaining cool. The latest iteration of the NBM
suggests highs in the 40s and 50s Wednesday through Friday. A
widespread freeze looks possible Monday night through Wednesday
night as low temperatures drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s for
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Widespread light to moderate rain showers will spread from west to
east across North Dakota this afternoon and evening, affecting all
TAF sites throughout most of the 18z TAF period. Expect mainly IFR
to MVFR cigs with the incoming cloud cover. It will also be quite
breezy this afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
240 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031-032-035>037-291945-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
240 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 /140 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Freezing low temperatures are becoming increasingly likely
Monday through Wednesday during the overnight and early morning
hours.

Widespread rainfall totals of one to two inches are possible by
Monday morning. Increased run off may cause localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ033-034-040>048-050-051-291945-
Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
240 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2019 /140 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Sunday. A few storms may be
strong.

Freezing low temperatures are becoming increasingly likely
Monday through Wednesday during the overnight and early morning
hours.

Widespread rainfall totals of one to two inches are possible by
Monday morning. Increased run off may cause localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

TJK