Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Thunderstorms continue across parts of western and central North
Dakota, although looks to be slowly decreasing in severity.
Instability has lessened but still a strongly sheared environment
so can't rule out a cell or two strengthening again. Otherwise,
expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue to move east
throughout the night.

UPDATE Issued at 854 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Thunderstorms continue across parts of western North Dakota. By
02Z, a severe thunderstorm was moving through Mountrail county
with a history of producing severe wind gusts including a 68 mph
report at Tioga. A severe threat will continue in this area and
eastward over the next several hours in a strongly sheared
environment. Coverage of thunderstorms should increase over the
next few hours however the severe threat will continue to be
isolated, especially as the boundary layer decouples.

UPDATE Issued at 457 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Thunderstorms ongoing in southern Saskatchewan were exhibiting
supercell characteristics in an environment marked by near 60 kts
of effective bulk shear and a high based thermodynamic profile of
MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. With right moving supercell motion
vectors oriented to the southeast at around 25 kts, this would
bring ongoing convection into Divide/Williams/Burke counties by
23-01Z. While boundary layer moisture is on the low side, strong
deep layer shear and enough instability may lead to an isolated
high based supercell threat this evening in northeast North Dakota
with a risk for large hail.

In far southwest North Dakota, visible satellite imagery recently
showed a field of more agitated cumulus. This will need to be
monitored for thunderstorm development over the next few hours as
it exhibits an environment of strong deep layer shear and adequate
instability for an isolated severe thunderstorm threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Scattered thunderstorms forming on a trough axis/baroclinic zone
across eastern Montana. Expect thunderstorms will slowly increase
in intensity but be marginally severe as the CAPE is slim but the
shear looks strong. It might be difficult to initially sustain
strong updrafts with the shear of 50-60 kts but 500 to 800 cape
values. CAM models showing disorganized convection through mid
evening, then get a little e more organized across the southwest
and central. At this time will spread some low POPs across wets
and central north dakota with the best chance south central later
tonight. However will not add teh severe wording to the grids at
this time.

Saturday morning the remnants of the overnight convection will
will be exiting the region, with widely scattered thunderstorms.
Saturday will be a warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s
and heat indexes near 90.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

The extended period continues to look warm and fairly active with
a mean h500 ridge over the central and a trough over the western
CONUS. This flow will continue to keep shortwave energy in the
mix and a rather strong gradient flow will provide dynamic support
aloft.

Sunday should be the warmest day with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s to around 70. Heat index values
will be in the 90s, to around 100 south. For this we will
highlight the heat in the weather story for Saturday and Sunday.

Temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected for the beginning
of the work week then warming into the mid to upper 80s by
Friday. We will see daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Scattered thunderstorms continue across much of central North
Dakota, possibly affecting KDIK/KBIS/KJMS for the next few hours.
Expecting these to decrease in strength overnight before clearing
out for much of tomorrow. More showers and storms are expected to
move into western North Dakota late afternoon and evening, most
likely affecting KISN/KMOT/KDIK by the end of the 06Z TAF cycle.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-140545-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 /1132 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, a few possibly strong to severe, are
possible this evening and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms Saturday through Thursday. A
few storms could be severe during this period. However,
uncertainty in details remains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1030 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N MOTT                46.39N 102.33W
07/12/2019  M72 MPH          HETTINGER          ND   MESONET

            NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL WEATHER NETWORK
            (NDAWN) STATION.

&&

NJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1040 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     TORNADO          2 NNE MOTT              46.39N 102.31W
07/12/2019                   HETTINGER          ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HETTINGER COUNTY SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTS
            TORNADO ON THE GROUND NORTHEAST OF MOTT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1059 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOTT                    46.37N 102.32W
07/12/2019                   HETTINGER          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCH SNAPPED OFF.
            REPORTS OF BROKEN WINDOWS IN MOTT.

&&

NJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1123 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOTT                    46.37N 102.32W
07/12/2019                   HETTINGER          ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS DAMAGE IN THE CITY
            OF MOTT DUE TO INTENSE THUNDERSTORM WINDS. A
            GARAGE DOOR WAS BLOWN IN ON THE NE SIDE OF
            MOTT, CAMPERS WERE BLOWN OVER ON THE EAST
            SIDE OF MOTT, A BUILDING ON THE FAIR GROUNDS
            WAS DAMAGED, AND LARGE TREES WERE BLOCKING
            ROADS IN THE CITY. THIS IS PRELIMINARY
            INFORMATION, FOLLOWUP INFORMATION WILL BE
            SUBMITTED WHEN RECEIVED.

&&

NJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1041 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019

NDZ041-130530-
Hettinger ND-
1041 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HETTINGER COUNTY UNTIL
1130 PM MDT...

At 1041 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Regent, or 7 miles northwest of Mott, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mott and Regent.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 10262 4657 10240 4639 10213 4630 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 314DEG 14KT 4645 10244

SCHILD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1145 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019

NDZ041-130615-
Hettinger ND-
1145 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HETTINGER COUNTY UNTIL
1215 AM MDT...

At 1144 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast
of Regent, or 8 miles northwest of Mott, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mott and Burt.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4650 10262 4658 10246 4637 10207 4629 10234
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 310DEG 20KT 4646 10245

SCHILD