Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
513 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Severe convection continues across portions of central and western
ND. Main focus is from around Bismarck/Mandan northeast to
Carrington and Jamestown. Convection is developing along an
earlier outflow boundary that is sagging slowly southeast. We
could see additional convection develop here through the evening
within a very unstable environment. All threats, including
tornadoes are in play at least initially, if new convection
remains discrete. Convection farther northeast toward Carrington
and Jamestown may be more multi-cellular in nature, with potential
bowing segments. Finally will need to continue to monitor the far
northwest, as very unstable lapse rates remain behind the cold
front. Could continue to see large hail with storms that develop
over northwest into north central ND this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Updated to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include McHenry,
Pierce, and Rollette counties. Also made the entire watch go into
effect now. Enhanced stretching potential along the line of
severe thunderstorms from Mercer through McLean counties has
contributed to numerous reports of tornadoes with the line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Severe weather likely this afternoon and evening highlights the
short term forecast.

A surface low pressure is currently centered in northwest North
Dakota with a boundary extending from southwest to north central
ND. Aloft, a trough west of the forecast area continues to
propagate downstream, with low-level moisture continuing to advect
into the Northern Plains from a strong 850 jet nosing into our
south-central counties. This boundary will be the forcing
mechanism for severe thunderstorms, with very steep low level
lapse rates present and current analysis showing MLCAPE values
around 3000-4000 J/kg. Already beginning to see some cb forming
along the boundary so expecting cap is very little at this point.
Best intersection of low and deep-layer shear seems to be in a
corridor north of Interstate 94 and east of Highway 83, where bulk
shear is forecast to be around 40-45 knots. This is also the area
where SRH is expected to be strongest around 150 m2/s2, so threat
for a few tornadoes and the largest hail will likely be in the
region generally from Bismarck to northeast North Dakota.

A few discrete supercells are expected initially, likely in
central North Dakota, as deep layer shear is more perpendicular to
the boundary. This is when the greatest threat for tornadoes and
large hail will be, before the anvil-level shear begins to
dominate storm mode and upscale growth is favored. This will lead
to more of a cluster-type storm mode, likely in front of and along
the boundary. This upscale growth, combined with very high
precipitable water values, gives concern for very heavy rainfall
with training possible along the boundary as the low-level jet
continues to push into southern ND, helping convection continue.
Therefore, have issued a Flash Flood Watch for parts of southwest
and south central North Dakota in anticipation of this.

As the night continues and the storm mode continues to get more
multicellular, expecting the severe threat to slowly decrease.
However, still anticipating plenty of rainfall and possible
thunderstorms across western and central North Dakota as the
slow-moving low pressure center becomes stacked with a low aloft.
This is forecast to quickly deepen and keep precipitation around
through all of Tuesday. Any thunderstorms are likely to be on the
east side of the surface low with some instability still present,
but severe threat is marginal at best. As the boundary from today
passes, Tuesday's temperatures will be cooler than today's, with
highs in the upper 60s in western North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

The long term forecast is highlighted by summerlike temperatures
and a few chances for showers and thunderstorms.

As the stacked surface low progresses east of the forecast area,
rain will continue overnight Tuesday and slowly taper off west to
east by Wednesday morning. From there, upper-level ridging begins
to dominate over a strong high pressure in the southwestern US.
Wednesday and Thursday look to be mostly dry and warming up from
Tuesday's cooler temperatures. Some showers and thunderstorms are
possible for the end of the work week and into the weekend with
some shortwave impulses moving through the upper-level flow, but
the overall pattern looks to be relatively consistent through the
extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 459 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across southwest and
central North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Very large hail,
damaging winds, and LIFR conditions are expected. Rain showers and
thunderstorms will continue tonight through Tuesday with MVFR/IFR
ceilings developing.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for NDZ005-012-013-
019>023-033>036-041-042-044>047-050.

&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
512 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

NDZ005-012-013-019>023-033>036-041-042-044>047-050-092215-
Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Stark-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
McIntosh-
512 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 /412 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
few tornadoes, large hail up to tennis ball size, and damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph are all possible along with the very heavy
rain. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday, Thursday night, and over
the coming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed from later this afternoon and at
least until midnight tonight. Report all tornadoes, hail, storm
wind gusts of 40 mph or higher, any pooling of rain water, and
rain amounts to your National Weather Service in Bismarck. More
experienced spotters should report information related to storm
structure as well.

NDZ001>004-009>011-017-018-025-031-032-037-040-043-048-051-092215-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-
Dunn-Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stutsman-Slope-Bowman-La Moure-
Dickey-
512 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019 /412 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. A
few tornadoes, large hail up to tennis ball size, and damaging
wind gusts up to 70 mph are all possible along with the very heavy
rain. The greatest potential is across southwest and central North
Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday, Thursday night, and over
the coming weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will be needed from later this afternoon and at
least until midnight tonight. Report all tornadoes, hail, storm
wind gusts of 40 mph or higher, any pooling of rain water, and
rain amounts to your National Weather Service in Bismarck. More
experienced spotters should report information related to storm
structure as well.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
435 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             8 WNW LEFOR             46.74N 102.71W
07/08/2019  E1.00 INCH       STARK              ND   PUBLIC

            HEAVY RAIN MEASURED AT 1.40 ALSO. HAIL
            LASTED FOR 20 MINUTES.

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
512 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             4 S BISMARCK            46.75N 100.80W
07/08/2019  E1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
522 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             12 SW HANNOVER          46.99N 101.62W
07/08/2019  E1.00 INCH       OLIVER             ND   PUBLIC

&&

RK

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