Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
153 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

The focus in the short term will be the severe thunderstorm
chances across central and eastern North Dakota this afternoon
and evening. A cold front, currently stretched across central
North Dakota, will continue to move east and be the focus for
thunderstorm initiation across central North Dakota late this
afternoon. CAPE continues to increase to around 3000 J/KG this
afternoon with 0 to 6 km shear only around 25 knots. The main
threats will initially be large hail and very heavy rainfall
(though the progressive nature of storms should limit the
flooding threat), then potentially transitioning toward a wind
threat if an MCS develops.

The severe storm threat should come to an end by around 10 pm
this evening across the James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

The cold front will usher in gusty winds and cooler air for Monday
and Tuesday, with Tuesday the windier day. A wind advisory may be
required for at least a portion of the region Tuesday afternoon.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible as a
weak shortwave trough will swing through the upper low on Monday
into Tuesday, with the chances mainly north and east on Tuesday.

Then a dry and cool period will settle in for Wednesday through
Saturday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s
to lower 50s. Lows in the upper 30s may be possible across
northwest North Dakota Friday morning as a cool surface high
moves south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

A cold front currently stretches across central North Dakota.
This will be the focus for thunderstorms this afternoon. The
front/storms will move into eastern North Dakota by late this
evening. The best chances for thunderstorms will be from are at
KBIS around 21z and KJMS closer to OOz. MVFR/IFR CIGS at KJMS will
improve after the storms pass around 04z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
140 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

NDZ004-005-012-013-021>023-025-035>037-045>048-050-051-261845-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
140 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 /1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms with very heavy rain are likely this afternoon and
early evening. A few storms may be severe with quarter size hail
and winds to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>020-031>034-040>044-261845-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-
Grant-Bowman-Adams-
140 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 /1240 PM MDT Sun Aug 25 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
249 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MENOKEN             46.81N 100.54W
08/25/2019  E1.70 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED
            THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&