Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
657 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

This update for new information in aviation section below.

UPDATE Issued at 528 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

An upper level low was over south central/southeastern Saskatchewan,
surrounded by a series of upper level impulses rotating around the
upper low. Meanwhile, a surface cold front extended from a surface
low near Williston to Minot/Garrison to near Jamestown.

An arc of showers and thunderstorms had developed late this
afternoon along the southern boundary of the upper level impulses.
This arc of scattered storms extended from northwest North Dakota,
then westward across central Montana. The arc of storms will
continue pushing eastward into north central North Dakota in more of
a line of storms. Some gusty winds and small hail is possible, but
severe storms (large hail and damaging winds) looks to be a minimal
threat - but a localized severe storm is still possible. It is
expected that the thunderstorms will continue through at least 9 pm
cdt, then become an area of showers with only isolated thunder after
9 pm. Showers are expected after that, with chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

The short term forecast is highlighted by a marginal severe
weather risk this afternoon and early evening in the northwest and
central. A nonzero tornado risk exists as well.

This afternoon, a closed midlevel low was located over
southeastern Saskatchewan with an occluded front placed from
northwest to southeast North Dakota. Strong surface convergence
along the frontal boundary as well as midlevel lapse rates nearing
7 C/km have allowed for thunderstorm development in the northwest.
With effective bulk layer shear of 30-40 kts this afternoon, a
marginal severe weather threat may develop. Additionally, with
enhanced vorticity along the surface boundary a nonzero tornado
risk exists with thunderstorms that reside in this convergence
zone. The severe risk exists along the diurnal curve with
thunderstorm intensity and coverage decreasing into the evening.

Tonight, the midlevel low will become more progressive and
open...moving east/southeast overnight. An associated cold front
will have passed through the state by Tuesday morning with breezy
north/northwest surface winds expected through the day. Seasonably
cooler temperatures are expected with highs in the 60s to near 70.
A few lingering showers will be possible through the day before
clearing in the evening as high pressure sets in.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Tuesday evening through Wednesday, the upper low progresses
eastward with a surface high developing across the Dakotas. Lows
Wednesday morning drop into the 40s and low 50s with highs
returning to the 70s. Wednesday through Friday the upper level
flow pattern becomes northwesterly with several perturbations
propagating through the flow, delivering daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Guidance keeps wave timing on Wednesday later
in the evening, so chances for precipitation will likely be held
until the overnight hours through the day Thursday. Risk for
stronger storms or severe weather through the end of the week is
highly uncertain as details are murky on timing of frontal
passages associated with the embedded northwest shortwaves.

With the northwest flow pattern, high temperatures are expected to
stay in the 70s to around 80 each day through the end of the week.
For this coming weekend, global deterministic model guidance has
diverged quite a bit in the last few runs. Recent GFS runs have
develop a strong trough out of central Canada with a surging cold
front through the Northern Plains Friday night. This solution
delivers seasonably colder temperatures on Saturday while
effectively eliminating chances for convection. Conversely, the
ECMWF had developed a trough trough in the northwest with
southerly flow over the northern plains which would have set up
widespread chances for thunderstorms over the weekend. However,
the recent 12Z EC has trended towards the GFS solution. With that
in mind, a blended solution brings chances for precipitation
through the weekend with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

A line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the
KMOT TAF area between 00z and 03z. Look for erratic wind directions
with gusts to 30 knots. Chance of rain showers continues overnight,
especially at KISN, KMOT, KJMS...then decreasing chances Tuesday
afternoon.

Otherwise, look for MVFR/IFR stratus at KMOT and KJMS throughout the
00z TAF cycle. Expect MVFR/IFR stratus to move into KISN by around
06z...and the large area of MVFR/IFR stratus to move southward into
KDIK and KBIS late tonight. Conditions improving to VFR at KISN
Tuesday afternoon, but continuing MVFR at other TAF sites.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
238 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

NDZ031>033-040>045-131945-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-
Sioux-
238 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 /138 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms today. Severe
weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001-002-009>011-017>023-025-034>037-046>048-050-051-131945-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
238 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 /138 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today. A few severe storms are
possible with quarter size hail and locally damaging wind gusts
to 60 mph. A tornado or two is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

NDZ003>005-012-013-131945-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-
238 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected at this
time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday night through
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
536 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

NDZ002-009-010-017-122300-
McKenzie ND-Mountrail ND-Williams ND-Burke ND-
536 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BURKE...
NORTHEASTERN MCKENZIE...EASTERN WILLIAMS AND NORTHWESTERN MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Battleview to 6 miles south of Tioga to 17 miles
northeast of Watford City. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tioga, Ray, Powers Lake, Ross, Battleview, Lostwood, 4 Bears Lodge,
White Earth, Lewis And Clark State Park, White Earth Bay Recreation
Area, Charlson, White Tail Bay Recreation Area, Mcgregor and Tobacco
Garden Bay Recreation Area.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4870 10232 4836 10240 4798 10255 4800 10332
      4831 10320 4862 10315 4863 10301 4863 10289
      4865 10288
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 260DEG 36KT 4857 10285 4832 10299 4803 10313

HARGROVE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
602 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

NDZ002-010-011-122345-
Mountrail ND-Ward ND-Burke ND-
602 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WARD...
SOUTHWESTERN BURKE AND MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 601 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Powers Lake to 8 miles north of Ross to 15 miles
northwest of 4 Bears Lodge. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stanley, Kenmare, Powers Lake, Ross, Battleview, Palermo, Donnybrook,
Lostwood, Belden, Blaisdell, White Earth, Coulee, White Earth Bay
Recreation Area and Tagus.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4852 10184 4846 10184 4846 10182 4812 10197
      4812 10274 4813 10276 4812 10282 4825 10283
      4841 10276 4855 10289 4858 10289 4869 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 263DEG 41KT 4851 10267 4843 10260 4818 10271

HARGROVE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
634 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

NDZ010-011-130000-
Mountrail ND-Ward ND-
634 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WARD AND EAST
CENTRAL MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 633 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Plaza, or 30
miles southeast of Stanley, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plaza and Makoti.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4796 10206 4810 10203 4811 10162 4787 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 272DEG 19KT 4801 10193

HARGROVE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
706 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             MAKOTI                  47.96N 101.81W
08/12/2019  E1.50 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED TO BROADCAST MEDIA THROUGH SOCIAL
            MEDIA. HAIL LASTED 15 MINUTES.

&&

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
711 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             MAKOTI                  47.96N 101.80W
08/12/2019  E1.75 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL LASTED 15 MINUTES. ALSO 70 MPH WIND
            GUST.

&&

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
712 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     MAKOTI                  47.97N 101.80W
08/12/2019  E70 MPH          WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            ALSO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL.

&&

JV