Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
330 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Current radar observations show several very strong to severe
thunderstorms across south central North Dakota, with more storms
rapidly developing. Updated the probability of precipitation to
better reflect radar observations and expected trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Strong to severe storms are possible early this evening across
south central through southeast North Dakota before moving out of
the area by late evening.

Current surface weather analysis depicts a west-east pressure
trough across southern North Dakota, with decent return flow
across south central North Dakota where dew points are hovering
around 60 degrees and temperatures are in the lower 90s. In
addition, an upper level impulse located across southeast Montana
is beginning to catch up with the surface pressure trough. This
may aid convective initiation this afternoon. The environment
remains favorable for storms to continue into the evening, with a
discrete storm mode favored. Very large hail between golf ball and
tennis ball size is possible with the strongest storms, along with
damaging wind gusts as high as 70 mph. The tornado threat looks
very low given high LCLs and very little to no low level shear.

Storms will quickly move south and east this evening, with storms
exiting the area around 00z. A cold front will push southward from
southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba through North Dakota tonight,
with high pressure building in behind it. This will lead to much
cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the 70s. A few post
frontal showers and weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
tomorrow, and the latest CAM model guidance picks up on these
potential showers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Cool Wednesday night with slightly below average temperatures
favored throughout the long term forecast. Expect an active
weather pattern for the weekend.

A strong surface high will center over North Dakota Wednesday
night, leading to clear skies and calm winds. This should allow
temperatures to drop quite a bit, with a 60/40 blend of the
ADJMET/NBM suggesting lows mainly in the 40s. This high pressure
system will slowly move eastward across the state on Thursday.
This should lead to a dry and pleasant day on Thursday with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s southwest.

The 12z EURO/GFS both depict a much more active weather pattern
for the weekend, with widespread QPF amounts between 0.5 and 1.0
inches or more Friday afternoon through Saturday thanks to a
distinct surface low developing across eastern Montana/northeast
Wyoming and moving eastward across the Northern Plains. Upper
level support is also evident in current model guidance. It
appears there may be just enough CAPE and shear on Friday and
Saturday for potential severe weather in some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Mostly clear skies will dominate western and central North Dakota
this afternoon through tonight, outside of any showers or
thunderstorms. The best chance for thunderstorms will be across
south central through southeast North Dakota this afternoon and
evening, with storms likely exiting the area shortly after 00-01z.
KBIS and KJMS may be affected by these storms, but most of the
activity should be further south. A cold front will move down from
Canada tonight, leading to increasing clouds from north to south
Wednesday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
232 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

NDZ018>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051-071945-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Stark-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
232 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 /132 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Some storms may be severe, with large hail up to tennis ball size
and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday night through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-031-032-040-043-071945-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-Slope-Bowman-
232 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019 /132 PM MDT Tue Aug 6 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Some storms may be severe, with large hail up to quarter size and
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday night through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

TJK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
215 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

NDZ018-019-061945-
Mercer ND-Dunn ND-
215 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DUNN AND
NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT/145 PM MDT/...

At 214 PM CDT/114 PM MDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located near
Halliday, or 22 miles east of Killdeer, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Halliday, Golden Valley and Dodge.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4736 10243 4749 10233 4745 10190 4716 10207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 287DEG 14KT 4739 10227

HARGROVE

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