Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
555 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Thunderstorms were ongoing from Burke through Slope counties with
several storms producing severe hail in the past hour or two.
While effective shear increases through the evening, increased
midlevel capping will inhibit the eastward progression of severe
thunderstorms into central North Dakota. Thus, we're expecting the
severe window to remain over the next several hours in western
North Dakota before diminishing late this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 407 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Recent satellite imagery shows ongoing updraft development and
orphan anviling in a general line stretching from Golden Valley
through Burke counties. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and around 30 kts
of effective deep layer shear will promote severe storm potential.
With forecast hodographs largely unidirectional through the
convective layer, initially discrete transitioning to clustered
cells will be the main storm mode as both right and left movers
will be favored. As per SPC's recent discussion, severe coverage
is uncertain given generally unfavorable synoptic ascent. However,
even without the issuance of a watch an isolated severe threat is
still possible given the CAPE/shear parameter space. Given lack
of synoptic support, thunderstorm activity should be mostly
diurnal and trend down by late evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

Strato-cu continues to slowly diminish south central late this
afternoon. This suggests the boundary layer may still be primed
for another night of patchy fog and low clouds, this time across
the James River Valley. Across the west the EML should delay the
onset of convection until late afternoon or early evening
southwest. Considering the threat of severe weather, we believe
the weak shear will limit the severe thunderstorms threat to a
few isolated cells this evening across teh west.

Tonight, the surface trough will move east and a cold front will
approach the northwest from Canada. This front will play a more
significant role for severe weather on Sunday and Sunday night as
a shortwave trough brings better ascent. Stronger shear, and the
frontal boundary, should aid in supporting more widespread
thunderstorms during this period with teh better chances across
teh south and southeast as the cold front continues to sag south.

While we considered the threat for heavy rainfall to be elevated
in the earlier forecasts across southeast North Dakota, the
progression of the frontal boundary will weigh in to somewhat
lower the risk for heavy rainfall by lessening the training
possibilities that would have existed had the front moved slower
or was stationary.

Warm and humid again Sunday with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

The upper low across the Prairie Provinces of Canada on Sunday
will move to the Hudson Bay region by early next week. An h500
ridge returns to the western intermountain and northwest regions.
This will firmly place the Northern Plains into a northwest flow
regime with generally cooler air through mid week. Then broad
ridging returns by the end of the week into the weekend bringing
warmer temperatures.

Precipitation will be spotty next week until the weekend when a
more robust shortwave moves into the region on the western side
of the ridge axis.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

A line of thunderstorms extending from north to south in western
ND will continue through this evening. Though KDIK-KMOT will be
the sites most likely for impact, uncertainty exists in
thunderstorms reaching either site. Thus kept both TAFs at VCTS
for now. Otherwise VFR expected at all TAF sites.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

NDZ001-009-017-031-032-042330-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 /520 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are chances for thunderstorms off and on through the period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ002>004-010>012-018>021-033-034-040>045-042330-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Dunn-Mercer-
Oliver-McLean-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-
Sioux-
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019 /520 PM MDT Sat Aug 3 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. The main hazards
will be large hail with some tennis ball size stones possible,
and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are chances for thunderstorms off and on through the
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters reports are needed this evening.

NDZ005-013-022-023-035-036-046-047-050-042330-
Rolette-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Burleigh-Kidder-Emmons-Logan-
McIntosh-
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible before midnight. The
main hazards will be large hail up to quarter size and damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are chances for thunderstorms off and on through the
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotter reports are needed this evening.

NDZ025-037-048-051-042330-
Foster-Stutsman-La Moure-Dickey-
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are chances for thunderstorms off and on through the
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

JP Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
423 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

NDZ002-010-032200-
Mountrail ND-Burke ND-
423 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BURKE AND
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 423 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Powers Lake, or
22 miles northwest of Stanley, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Powers Lake and Battleview.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4845 10284 4863 10286 4873 10253 4849 10238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 244DEG 20KT 4857 10270

AYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
509 PM CDT SAT AUG 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             12 NW AMIDON            46.60N 103.52W
08/03/2019  E1.00 INCH       SLOPE              ND   PUBLIC

&&

AE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
618 PM CDT SAT AUG 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             9 NNE BUFFALO SPRINGS   46.29N 103.15W
08/03/2019  E1.75 INCH       SLOPE              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIGNIFICANT CROP DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

AE

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