Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
638 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Severe thunderstorm watch #521 in effect for far southwest and far
south central North Dakota until 11PM MDT Wednesday/12AM CDT
Thursday. Large hail to ping-pong ball size, damaging winds to 60
mph, and heavy downpours can be expected. Scattered thunderstorms
will continue west and central through the evening. Strong
thunderstorms possible elsewhere with perhaps across the far north
where mid level lapse rates are marginal at 6C/km and effective
bulk shear is at 30kt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Thunderstorm potential this afternoon through tonight highlights
the short term forecast.

GOESEast mesoscale sector #2 visible imagery continues to depict a
cumulus field outlining the instability axis across eastern North
Dakota arching west through far southwest and far south central
North Dakota back toward Fort Peck. A few storms have initiated
thus far across Montana, with continued build up of the cumulus
across Golden Valley into Slope and Adams counties as of 20 UTC.
This is a bit displaced from the greatest instability and moisture
across eastern North Dakota. That said, 1000-1500 j/kg of ML CAPE
with minimal capping and 40-45kts of effective deep layer shear
supports the threat for a strong to severe storm or two through
the late afternoon and evening, with eventual propagation into
south central North Dakota. Nearly unidirectional flow would
suggest a splitting storm mode, and lower potential for a
supercell. Large hail to around ping pong ball size is the
primary threat and damaging winds to near 60 mph.

Across the James River Valley, although the moisture is greater,
the cumulus thus far has shown few signs of growth. The 12Z NSSL
WRF, and Hi-Res Window ARW and NMM all suggest convection
initiating across the James River Valley between Jamestown and
Aberdeen this afternoon with a mid level jet evident on water
vapor imagery. However, this threat is displaced further to the
northeast on the 18Z NAM NEST and 19 UTC HRRR.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

A drier pattern next week highlights the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite favors near zonal flow across the Northern
Plains Thursday through Saturday transitioning to a building
western CONUS upper level ridge into next week. The Northern
Plains are favored to be downstream of the ridge axis, which would
signal near to slightly below normal temperatures and a drier
pattern outside of any ridge running impulses with low
predictability.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail through 06z
Thursday, then wane overnight. A tempo group was utilized for KMOT
at the beginning of this taf period, with a vcsh/vcts used
elsewhere, until radar begins to show a trend towards a terminal.
Outside of any thunderstorms, expect vfr cigs/vsbys this period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...KS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
559 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

NDZ041>046-182300-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
559 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 /459 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorm watch #521 is in effect until 11PM MDT
Wednesday or 12AM CDT Thursday. Large hail to ping pong ball
size, damaging winds to near 60 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain are possible with any severe thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms south central on
Thursday. The chance of thunderstorms returns to most of western
and central North Dakota this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed across far southwest and far
south central North Dakota through this evening. Please call the
Bismarck National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212 with your
report.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-047-048-050-051-182300-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
559 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 /459 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast tonight
across western and south central North Dakota. Some storms may be
strong, however, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms south central on
Thursday. The chance of thunderstorms returns to most of western
and central North Dakota this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

KS

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