Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Bismarck, ND
NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 17, 2019, 5:38 PM MDT for Billings County, Dunn County, Stark County, North Dakota. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 17, 2019, 5:38 PM MDT (23:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 17, 2019, 6:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 67 min
- Issued by
- NWS Bismarck, ND
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Billings County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Stark County, ND
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 164 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 333 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 180 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -389 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1287 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 310 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 17, 5:38 PM MDT, 0 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 5:38 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Severe thunderstorm watch #521 in effect for far southwest and far south central North Dakota until 11PM MDT Wednesday/12AM CDT Thursday. Large hail to ping-pong ball size, damaging winds to 60 mph, and heavy downpours can be expected. Scattered thunderstorms will continue west and central through the evening. Strong thunderstorms possible elsewhere with perhaps across the far north where mid level lapse rates are marginal at 6C/km and effective bulk shear is at 30kt. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Thunderstorm potential this afternoon through tonight highlights the short term forecast. GOESEast mesoscale sector #2 visible imagery continues to depict a cumulus field outlining the instability axis across eastern North Dakota arching west through far southwest and far south central North Dakota back toward Fort Peck. A few storms have initiated thus far across Montana, with continued build up of the cumulus across Golden Valley into Slope and Adams counties as of 20 UTC. This is a bit displaced from the greatest instability and moisture across eastern North Dakota. That said, 1000-1500 j/kg of ML CAPE with minimal capping and 40-45kts of effective deep layer shear supports the threat for a strong to severe storm or two through the late afternoon and evening, with eventual propagation into south central North Dakota. Nearly unidirectional flow would suggest a splitting storm mode, and lower potential for a supercell. Large hail to around ping pong ball size is the primary threat and damaging winds to near 60 mph. Across the James River Valley, although the moisture is greater, the cumulus thus far has shown few signs of growth. The 12Z NSSL WRF, and Hi-Res Window ARW and NMM all suggest convection initiating across the James River Valley between Jamestown and Aberdeen this afternoon with a mid level jet evident on water vapor imagery. However, this threat is displaced further to the northeast on the 18Z NAM NEST and 19 UTC HRRR. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 A drier pattern next week highlights the extended forecast. The 12 UTC global suite favors near zonal flow across the Northern Plains Thursday through Saturday transitioning to a building western CONUS upper level ridge into next week. The Northern Plains are favored to be downstream of the ridge axis, which would signal near to slightly below normal temperatures and a drier pattern outside of any ridge running impulses with low predictability. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail through 06z Thursday, then wane overnight. A tempo group was utilized for KMOT at the beginning of this taf period, with a vcsh/vcts used elsewhere, until radar begins to show a trend towards a terminal. Outside of any thunderstorms, expect vfr cigs/vsbys this period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...PA LONG TERM...PA AVIATION...KS
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 4:59 PM MDT, 39 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 559 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 NDZ041>046-182300- Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons- 559 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 /459 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central North Dakota and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Severe thunderstorm watch #521 is in effect until 11PM MDT Wednesday or 12AM CDT Thursday. Large hail to ping pong ball size, damaging winds to near 60 mph, frequent lightning, and heavy rain are possible with any severe thunderstorm. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is a slight chance of thunderstorms south central on Thursday. The chance of thunderstorms returns to most of western and central North Dakota this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be needed across far southwest and far south central North Dakota through this evening. Please call the Bismarck National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212 with your report. NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-047-048-050-051-182300- Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward- McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells- Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder- Stutsman-Slope-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey- 559 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 /459 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast tonight across western and south central North Dakota. Some storms may be strong, however, severe thunderstorms are not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday There is a slight chance of thunderstorms south central on Thursday. The chance of thunderstorms returns to most of western and central North Dakota this weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. KS
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 3:29 PM MDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Bismarck ND 329 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019 NDZ041-172200- Hettinger ND- 329 PM MDT Wed Jul 17 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HETTINGER COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM MDT... At 329 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mott, moving east at 25 mph. Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Mott, Burt and Bentley. Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 4631 10249 4643 10249 4649 10205 4629 10205 TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 267DEG 22KT 4638 10236 JONES
Special weather statement, Jul 17, 3:36 PM MDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Bismarck ND 436 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 NDZ017-018-172215- McKenzie ND-Dunn ND- 436 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DUNN AND CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT/415 PM MDT/... At 436 PM CDT/336 PM MDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located over Watford City, moving east at 35 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Watford City, Arnegard and Johnsons Corner. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 4770 10345 4788 10343 4789 10276 4759 10284 TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 275DEG 31KT 4779 10333 KRANZ
Local storm report, Jul 17, 4:29 PM MDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
529 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM HAIL 2 S BURT 46.34N 102.16W
07/17/2019 E1.00 INCH HETTINGER ND PUBLIC
HAIL LASTED A FEW MINUTES AND WAS MOSTLY PEA
SIZE.
&&
JP MARTINThe office that day
Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 6:19 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant | 56 min |
| Jul 16, 7:00 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant, Sioux | 45 min |
| Jul 16, 7:14 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Hettinger, Stark | 46 min |
| Jul 16, 7:56 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Hettinger | 64 min |
| Jul 16, 8:59 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant, Hettinger | 61 min |
| Jul 16, 9:15 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | McKenzie | 30 min |
| Jul 16, 9:35 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | McKenzie | 40 min |
| Jul 16, 10:21 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | Oliver | 39 min |
| Jul 16, 11:12 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | Billings, Golden Valley | 48 min |
| Jul 16, 11:44 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | Logan | 31 min |
| Jul 17, 12:14 AM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | Logan | 46 min |
| Jul 17, 12:36 AM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | BIS | Kidder, Wells | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 1:05 AM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | Foster | 40 min |
| Jul 17, 1:39 AM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | BIS | Foster, Stutsman, Wells | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 3:29 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | Hettinger | 31 min |
| Jul 17, 3:36 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | BIS | McKenzie | 39 min |
| Jul 17, 3:56 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant, Hettinger | 49 min |
| Jul 17, 5:17 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Grant, Sioux | 58 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2019Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.