Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the southern tier of
NY and across northeast PA through this evening. A few storms
may become severe. A lingering frontal boundary will allow for
persistent chances of showers and thunderstorms the next
several days. High pressure and a brief dry period is possible
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
250 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the potential for
severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening
hours...mainly over ne PA, but potentially spreading into far
southern NY as well.

A Tornado Watch has been issued for all of ne PA until 10 pm this
evening.

Surface low currently situated near wrn NY/Lake Erie with a warm
front extending east along the srn tier of NY into portions of ne
PA. Much of the region south of the low and the warm front has
destabilized impressively with ML CAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg
into wrn PA. This very unstable air mass will attempt to move n/newd
just south of the warm front and provide the primary ingredient for
strong to severe thunderstorms across central and ern PA. Strongly
sheared wind profiles are evident along and north of the warm
front...0-1km shear around 30 kt and 0-6km shear around 60 kt...so
will need to watch the development of strong convection closer to
the front for the possibility of quickly maturing supercells later
this afternoon. The main threat is damaging winds and hail...and
also an increasing threat of a few tornadoes as well given the amt
of low level shear.

There is also a secondary threat of localized flash flooding with
this event. Although the motion of individual storms will be fairly
fast...there does appear to be some potential for training of
convection over the same areas with the focus along a west-east
broad area through PA. Heavy rainfall rates over areas that are
already sensitive due to recent rain will need to be monitored
closely.

The surface low will track to the east this evening and is progged
to take a bit of a turn to the south later tonight. This trend
should allow most of the convection to shift slowly to the
south/se...but may still be focused over central PA...into Luzerne
county...through this evening. Most of the instability should die
down after sunset tonight...along with the main threat of severe
weather. However...cannot rule out some additional training of
storms and localized flooding issues into ne PA.

The boundary along which the path of the low moves will sag south
tonight and Wed morning and allow most of the lingering rain showers
to end for a period of time. A light nw wind and cooling
temperatures into the 50s will make conditions favorable for patchy
fog.

The east-west oriented front will shift only slightly back to the
north tomorrow and another wave...although much weaker...will move
west to east through PA during the day. This will allow for another
chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly over ne PA again. There
is only a low chance of some storms becoming strong to severe due to
the likelihood that most of the instability remaining confined south
of the area. Temperatures on Wednesday will warm into the upper
60s in central NY and into the lower to mid 70s in ne PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Large upper low sits nearly stationary over northern Quebec
just east of James Bay on Thursday morning. This will keep a WNW
flow over the area. So, a short wave over the lakes with a
surface cold front will dive easterly bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area Thursday afternoon and continuing into
Thursday night. There are some model differences on the timing
but the overall scenario is agreed upon so it's a good bet that
another round of rain and embedded thunder is on the way.

Some weak upper ridging and a surface high pressure follow the
front bringing clearing skies and dry weather for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low mentioned in the short term continues to wobble around
eastern Quebec in the long term. This will keep a cooler than
normal, deep west/northwest flow over the forecast area. Friday
night into Saturday should remain mostly dry, bit with the
chance of some afternoon convection. A short wave riding through
in the flow will trigger more widespread convection late
Saturday into Sunday with a surface front again setting up shop
south of the forecast area. This will keep us cooler than normal
and unsettled into Monday, but hopefully keep the heaviest rain
south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Convection over NEPA will wind down over the next couple hours
so will continue a tempo group at AVP for possible TRW.,
Otherwise, VFR and MVFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites this
evening. Light winds and plenty of low level moisture will
bring fog and lower ceilings overnight with occasional IFR
conditions. Slow improvement is expected after 12Z Wednesday
with an eventual return to VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Occasional
restrictions from scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...BJT/DGM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
154 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

NYZ009-016>018-036-037-291800-
Northern Oneida-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-
Southern Oneida-
154 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ015-022>025-044>046-055>057-062-291800-
Yates-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-
Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-
154 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through the evening. There is a slight risk that a few storms will
become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy
rainfall. An isolated tornado is also possible. Risk for severe
thunderstorms will be higher for closer to the state border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are again possible Wednesday afternoon through
evening, especially from the Twin Tiers and Catskills southward.
Some storms may contain damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this afternoon through this evening.

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-291800-
Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
154 PM EDT Tue May 28 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 274 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through this
evening. There is a slight risk that a few storms will become severe
with damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall. An
isolated tornado is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are again possible Wednesday afternoon through
evening, especially from the Twin Tiers and Catskills southward.
Some storms may contain damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this afternoon through this evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     LIGHTNING        OLYPHANT                41.45N  75.58W
05/28/2019                   LACKAWANNA         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            LIGHTING CAUSED STRUCTURE FIRE IN THE VICINITY OF EAST
            PINE/EAST SCOTT ST. IN OLYPHANT, PA.

&&

CJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W NEW ALBANY          41.60N  76.56W
05/28/2019                   BRADFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON CAHILL ROAD

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
647 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DUNMORE                 41.42N  75.61W
05/28/2019                   LACKAWANNA         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING OF ROADWAY AND NEARBY RESIDENCE IN THE
            VICINITY OF 121 W SWINICK DR., DUNMORE, PA.

&&

CJP

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