Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
741 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area this evening bring
scattered thunderstorms, followed by cooler and drier air.
Another front will approach for Saturday and will bring you
another opportunity for showers and strong thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

730 PM Update...Instability has increased out ahead of the final
shortwave, which is now quickly crossing lake Ontario. MLCAPE
has reached 500-900 J/Kg, with Effective SRH values 300-400
m2/s2 and 0-6km shear increased between 60-70 kts. Convection
has fired up just ahead of this wave across Central NY and parts
of NE PA. These thunderstorms will quickly race across the
region (WNW to ESE) over the next few hours. The activity should
move out of our CWA by 10PM to Midnight. Have issued several
severe thunderstorm warnings already, and several more may be
needed...please stay weather aware this evening and have an
effective way to receive timely warnings.

600 PM Update... Have made several adjustments to the
forecast based on latest trends and high resolution models.
Bottom line is that high shear has overcome very weak CAPE
today, limiting severe weather potential, and overall
thunderstorm development. Multiple upper waves also may not have
had enough wavelength separation from each other with a second
short wave running into an area of subsidence and drying air
behind the wave that came through this morning. A third upper
wave moving from northern Michigan into Ontario has triggered
isolated activity along the Niagara Frontier. The CAMS models
continue to want to fire convection ahead of this feature this
evening. Models have not performed well today, so confidence is
much, if any, storm activity is low. That said, will still sweep
some chance PoPs across our northern counties this evening to
account for this feature and residual moderate instability
lingering in the area. Most of the southern half of our forecast
area should be relatively rain free.

Previous discussion...
Threat for severe storms highly dependent on the amount of
heating and the accompanying instability we can develop. Sat
images show plenty of clouds all the way back to Michigan, but
it does look likes some partial clearing is developing over NE
Ohio into Western NY and PA trying to work into the area. Plenty
of low level shear in place so we will continue to monitor
thunderstorms and the possibility of another Watch. Best chance
it seems like would be over the NEPA counties where better
shear and the best chance for instability exists.

Otherwise cooler air behind the front will work in this evening
and Friday. Some cold advection clouds will likely develop over
the higher terrain, mainly east of I-81 where a few sprinkles
are possible into Friday morning. Beyond that, dry conditions
will continue into Friday night as high pressure builds into the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rather complex but ill defined system races through on Saturday
and brings yet another chance for severe weather. Warm frontal
type feature races through Saturday morning developing a few
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. This barely clears the
northern area as a cold front plows on from the west with more
serious convection. With the warm front still nearby, concern
would be for low level shear/helicity would be available to any
cell that develops increasing the chance for damaging storms.

Of course there are model timing difference but the front should
clear the area in the late evening or just after midnight. Front
then stalls around the Mason/Dixon line early Sunday. This
should keep most convection south of the forecast area but
there is a chance that a few showers to even thunderstorms
could sneak back into NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night through Monday night: High pressure builds in and moves
the region with another calmer period in time for the holiday. Still
pleasant temperature wise with lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's.

Tuesday through Wednesday night: A mid-level ridge over the
southeast deflects the next system into the Great Lakes. An
associated warm front will provide the lift and moisture for some
additional shower and thunderstorm chances in this period. Higher
chances are currently present across northern portions of central
New York but that will be dependent on the strength and location of
the ridge over the southeast. Our region may see 80's by Wednesday
with ensemble guidance potentially too cool if the boundary ends up
north of our region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front sweeping through the area this evening will bring
showers and thunderstorms, along with brief restrictions to MVFR
levels and gusty winds. Behind the front, cold advections will
lower the ceilings to MVFR in most places as a solid strato-cu
deck moves in late overnight. Drier air and mixing will return
all stations to VFR later Friday afternoon.

Outlook...
Friday night and Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night...Showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions likely.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/JAB/MJM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/MJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
433 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-242045-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
433 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms through sunset.
Storms late this afternoon and evening will generally be isolated
but may produce locally damaging winds or large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms is
possible late Saturday. Please check back for updates through the
week on this evolving situation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

JRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
807 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEE CENTER              43.30N  75.52W
05/23/2019                   ONEIDA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

&&

HLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
817 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLOYD                   43.22N  75.35W
05/23/2019                   ONEIDA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON WIRES

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

HLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
821 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLAND PATENT          43.24N  75.26W
05/23/2019                   ONEIDA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN

&&

HLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
828 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORESTPORT              43.45N  75.22W
05/23/2019                   ONEIDA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

HLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
829 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

NYZ062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072-240115-
Sullivan NY-Southern Wayne PA-Wyoming PA-Northern Wayne PA-
Luzerne PA-Lackawanna PA-Pike PA-
829 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN
SULLIVAN...LACKAWANNA...SOUTHERN WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN LUZERNE...PIKE
AND EASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 829 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Nicholson to Old Forge to near Luzerne.
Movement was east at 65 mph.

Small hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Falls, Dunmore, Kingston, Plains, Carbondale,
Port Jervis, Old Forge and Bushkill.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

LAT...LON 4114 7508 4115 7515 4125 7513 4123 7551
      4122 7555 4115 7561 4131 7610 4148 7608
      4164 7591 4164 7547 4166 7546 4162 7507
      4151 7469 4150 7469 4149 7476 4143 7476
      4136 7469 4132 7479 4116 7490 4108 7503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 286DEG 57KT 4161 7576 4137 7576 4132 7592

DAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
830 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REMSEN                  43.33N  75.19W
05/23/2019                   ONEIDA             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN

&&

HLC