Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
419 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed, and will become
widespread late this afternoon over much of the area. Some of
these storms may become strong to severe. A few lingering
showers and thunderstorms are expected on Monday before a
couple of dry days Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...
watch continues with a pair of severe thunderstorm warnings for
Oneida county. More thunderstorms will move in from the
southwest. Thunderstorms have developed over central PA and will
continue as they move into the destabilizing airmass over our
area. Biggest severe threat will be the wind. Wind shear is
moderate. Still a weak cap over most of the area but above it
unstable with 1 to 2k cape. Lapse rates around 7. PWATs 1 to
1.5" providing ample moisture. Main concern is training across
the far north. Radar estimates 1 to 2 inches. In addition they
had a round of thunderstorms this morning in the same area.
Flash flooding possible. With dry mid layers and high CAPE
severe hail also possible. Also weak tornadoes could occur with
moderate low level shear. The severe threat continues into the
early evening. At that point there will be a lull then another
round comes in toward midnight ahead of the cold front. The cold
front slows as it gets into NEPA and the Catskills. This will be
the focus for more showers and thunderstorms Monday. This has
less stability than today but more forcing with upper level
height falls, a short wave, and jet dynamics. Showers will move
out in the evening.

For temperatures starting out very warm in the 80s this
afternoon. Warmest temperatures since last September. Making it
seem warmer are dewpoints in the 60s. With the cold front still
to the west tonight, temperatures will fall only into the 60s.
Monday again above normal but cooler than today. Highs low 70s
northwest to low 80s southeast. Monday night lows in the 40s.

204 PM Update...
Thunderstorms continue to develop in a moist and unstable
airmass across the region, especially in the vicinity of a warm
front located near the Thruway. With additional convection
expected to develop through the rest of the afternoon, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been posted for the entire area until 9
PM. Updated ZFP has been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...

High pressure at all levels builds in this period with dry air.
High temperatures mostly in the low and mid 60s. Low
temperatures again in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large dome of high pressure will be over the southeast during
much of this period. At this time, it does not appear this high
pressure and associated upper level ridge will make it to our
region. This will set up a storm track around this high pressure
system, from the Plains to Great Lakes to Northeast. This will
result in a few separate passing waves during this timeframe,
which will bring some chances of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. That being said, it does not appear that any
particular day will be a complete washout (there will be plenty
of dry periods as well).

In terms of temperatures, Wednesday will likely be the coolest
day, with highs in the 60s. Thursday through Sunday will likely
have highs mostly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 pm update...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Convection has started near RME/SYR.
Other convection will move into the other sites in a few hours.
Have a tempo for MVFR or IFR vsbys and low end VFR cigs 21 to
23z in NY and 23 and 02z at AVP in thunderstorms. After this
initial line of convection there will be a dry gap then more
showers with MVFR conditions around 3 to 6z. After this some
MVFR late tonight for RME/BGM and maybe ELM/ITH.

Southwest Winds at 10 kts this afternoon. Tonight winds 5 to 10
kts. Monday winds increase to 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts.

Outlook...
Monday afternoon...Restrictions possible in rain showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday night through Wednesday...VFR with high pressure.

Thursday through Friday...Possible restrictions in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...TAC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>