Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
344 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A few upper level disturbances will move east across the region
tonight through Sunday night with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. A weak cold front will move into the region
Monday with chances for more showers and thunderstorms. This
unsettled weather pattern will last until late next week when a
stronger cold front moves through the region. High pressure will
follow this front bringing fair and cooler weather for Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level wave moving northeast
across far southeast Ontario. This wave was leading to cooling
aloft at 500 mb as per the SPC mesoanalysis. Visible satellite
imagery continues to show insolation south of the convection
which has fired over northern and western NY. Mixed layer CAPEs
were running between 1000 and 2000 J/Kg in south central NY and
northeast PA south of convection. Vertical wind shear was
between 30 and 40 knots so we expect more development farther
south with strong to severe thunderstorms. We will have likely
POPs moving east across the forecast area of central
NY/northeast PA for showers and thunderstorms. Enhanced the
wording with gusty winds and lightning. Activity will wind down
overnight with loss of heating and passage of short wave /
warming aloft. The low-level winds will be light southerly so
will have patchy valley fog again late tonight.

For Sunday, models show another smaller upper wave moving east
Sunday which will be the impetus for more afternoon convection.
The lower atmosphere will be even moister than today with
dewpoints likely into the lower 70s and hence model CAPEs exceed
2000 J/Kg. 0-6 km wind shear will be 25 to 30 knots or so and
with a weaker wave believe there will be more storms but not as
widespread as today. Heat indices are projected to be close to
heat advisory criteria but fall just short. So no heat
advisories this issuance.

By Sunday night, another upper wave moves through to our north
but we will be in the diurnal minimum of CAPE so have slight
chance to chance POPs higher in our north and lower to the
south farther away from the wave and lifting.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Monday, upper level short wave trough moves northeast from
eastern Ontario to central Quebec. This wave will press a cold
front south into northern NY/eastern Great lakes region by
Monday evening. The low-level winds will accelerate from the
west-southwest ahead of this upper level wave and advect higher
low-level dewpoints into central NY and northeast PA. Mixed
layer CAPEs on the NAM are projected to be over 2000 J/kg
especially in south central NY and northeast PA. The 0-6 km bulk
vertical wind shear is between 25 and 35 knots with the highest
shear farther north. We will go with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms for Monday afternoon. POPs will be
highest in north central NY and lower farther south. There will
be some potential for severe thunderstorms given the
instability and shear profiles. Heat indices also will be close
to heat advisory criteria of 95F in parts of central NY as
well.

For Monday Night, high pressure builds across central NY and
northeast PA as we come under a short-lived short wave ridge
axis. With clearing skies, looks like an excellent night for
valley fog formation by Tuesday morning. GFS holds onto some
showers into the night with the Euro and NAM tapering activity
down into the evening. We will have chance POPs for showers and
storms mainly in the evening, tapering off overnight into
Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, more showers and thunderstorms
will be possible as a low-level wave spins up across the Middle
Atlantic States. The Euro/GFS/CMC and NAM all have this feature
with associated QPF. For grids went with NBM for now given the
timing uncertainities and the convective nature of the wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Used NBM as a starting point for this period. All synoptic
models show a large upper trough building into the northeast U.S
by Friday with a large canadian high pressure following the
trough. This trough will push a cold front through the region
from Wednesday night to Thursday night depending on which model
you look at. So used the blend to populate the POPs in this time
period. All synoptic models and the NBM agree that cooler and
drier air covers the region for Friday and Saturday so have
POPs less than 15 percent both days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR conditions over the next hour at SYR with thunderstorms
moving in, then occasional MVFR to IFR conditions will be
possible across all terminals through the rest of the afternoon
and evening in thunderstorms. Activity largely winds down after
0Z, with mainly VFR conditions through 6Z across all sites.
Expect slight reductions in visibility beginning by 9Z with a
moist environment in the wake of thunderstorm activity. Looking
like mainly MVFR visibility across all sites but ELM - where
ceiling and visibility may drop to ALT MIN or even airport min.

Conditions gradually improve to VFR after 13Z Sunday, then
additional showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon may lead
to occasional visibility restrictions.

Outlook...

Sunday night...MVFR conditions possible in lingering showers.

Monday to Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers and
storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...HLC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
424 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-182030-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
424 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue over a large
part of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania into this
evening. Additionally there is a chance for localized urban and small
stream flooding.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the latest
updates on this situation.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE
90S MONDAY...

A very warm and humid air mass combined with an upper level
disturbance will lead to the chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms Monday afternoon across a wide area in central New York
and northeast Pennsylvania. Temperatures will also approach 90
degrees in many areas on Monday and combine with high humidity to
produce heat indices well into the 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday afternoon.

NICOSIA

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