Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
322 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes this afternoon and evening with showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure builds in behind the front,
leading to a dry Saturday. More rain is likely starting Sunday
with another area of low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

Cold front is currently crossing the region and should move east
of the forecast area by tonight. Showers and storms have
developed along the front. However, destabilization out ahead of
the front is meager...with maybe 300 to 500 J/Kg of CAPE at
best. Wind fields are strong and there will be gusty winds with
these showers/storms, but the damaging winds potential is low.
The best threat for stronger winds will be across the SE
forecast area, where temperatures have climbed into the lower
70s with dew points in the low 60s. However, very dry air aloft
is going to limit the convection, and this has been noticed with
current storms that have formed, with tops struggling to climb
above 20K feet.

Behind the cold front, high pressure drops southeast into the
Great Lakes late tonight. Much cooler temperatures will be
pouring in as well. Have considered issuing a frost advisory for
Steuben County, but low level flow looks a bit too strong to
allow temperatures from going to low. Still added the mention of
some patchy frost.

High pressure will keep us dry through much of the day on
Saturday, but it will be cool, with temperatures running about 5
degrees below normal. Our next system will approach from the
south Saturday night and have added the mention for some showers
overnight, with best chance across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Upper trough digs in the mid Mississippi valley forcing deep
moisture back into the area. Models are still struggling of the
details of the forecast and the north and eastward extent of the
rain as ridging holds fast over eastern NY. In any case rain
over the western and southern zones Sunday is a good bet,
tapering down to just a chance in the northeast.

Upper low captures the surface low and trudges east eventually
breaking down the ridge. This will bring more widespread rain to
the forecast area Sunday night and Monday.

Still looks like the heaviest rain will be associated with the
convection south of the forecast area near the surface front
over Virginia and off the coast.

With the rain and the cold pool aloft, daytime temps will be
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Upper low meanders east Monday and Tuesday keeping the grey and
dreary weather over the forecast area. By early Wednesday, low
is in the Gulf of Maine and drier air will try to begin work in
but instability will develop clouds and scattered showers,
especially Wednesday morning over the eastern zones.

There will perhaps be a brief break late Wednesday into early
Thursday before a short wave dropping into the upper trough
develops more showers over the area. High pressure tries to
build in early Friday but it looks like yet another system could
bring some showers for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

Cold front is sliding through the region this afternoon and
kicking off showers and a few thunderstorms. IFR conditions will
be possible in heavier showers/storms and strong gusty winds
will also be a possibility. Improving conditions later tonight
as high pressure builds in behind the front, however it is
possible that some MVFR ceilings linger behind the front. VFR
conditions expected on Saturday, with next system moving in
overnight into Sunday morning. Unsettled conditions with
possible restrictions through the first part of next week.

Outlook...

Saturday through Saturday Night...mainly VFR.

Sunday through Tuesday...Restrictions expected in rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

NYZ009-036-037-045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-
111930-
Northern Oneida-Madison-Southern Oneida-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-
Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
325 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A cold front will move across the area this afternoon and early
evening, accompanied by showers and some thunderstorms. A few of the
strongest thunderstorms could contain locally damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ015>018-022>025-044-111930-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-
Tompkins-Cortland-
325 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
245 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

NYZ009-036-037-101945-
Southern Oneida NY-Madison NY-Northern Oneida NY-
245 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA
AND CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Remsen to near Floyd to Clark Mills to
Stockbridge. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Small hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Utica, Rome, Kirkland, Westmoreland, Trenton, Paris, Deerfield,
Floyd, Whitesboro and New York Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4333 7508 4330 7515 4326 7516 4325 7515
      4326 7514 4324 7512 4323 7508 4322 7507
      4305 7522 4301 7521 4294 7570 4308 7545
      4323 7539 4339 7520 4342 7509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 250DEG 47KT 4336 7519 4325 7532 4311 7538 4299
7556

DAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
310 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

NYZ025-044-101945-
Cortland NY-Tompkins NY-
310 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...CORTLAND AND NORTHEASTERN
TOMPKINS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Freeville, or 9 miles southwest of Cortland, moving east at 45 mph.

Small hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cortland, Homer, Virgil, Groton, Dryden, Solon, Cincinnatus, McGraw,
Willet and Harford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4241 7587 4241 7599 4245 7645 4262 7645
      4262 7627 4264 7626 4266 7588
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 271DEG 38KT 4254 7635

DAB

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