Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
358 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold frontal boundary and associated low pressure systems will
bring a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. High pressure will build into the region briefly on
Tuesday before the next frontal system moves into the region on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Tonight: Warm and humid air over the region late this afternoon will
lead to the development of a few clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. Right now the most likely outcome is for these
storms to develop in the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier early
this evening then move southeastward into NE PA. Model soundings
do show some instability coupled with marginally high PW
values. A lack of shear is present though is expected to limit
any strong to severe storm threat. Gusty winds and small hail are
the main concern with any strong to severe storms. Model
soundings also show instability lingering along with a tall
skinny CAPE profile. However, storm motions and PW values just
over an inch should prevent any widespread flash flooding
tonight. Still, a few storms as shown on the Hi- res NAM have
the potential to drop local amounts of 1-2 inches in NE PA and
create another round of localized flooding issues.

A break is expected overnight in the showers before a cold frontal
boundary moves into western NY by sunrise with additional showers.
Lows tonight will stay muggy due to clouds and showers only falling
to around 60.

Sunday and Sunday night:

A cold front will move through the region during the day. A similar
environment will be in place to what is going on tonight with a
modest amount of instability and lack of shear.  As instability
grows by the late morning and afternoon thunderstorms will develop
as well along with the showers along and just ahead of the cold
front. However, the cold front should be near I-81 at that time.
With the instability, some storms may become strong to severe with
gusty winds east of I-81 but the lack of shear should keep the
severe threat more limited. The main concern looks to be from heavy
downpours though and localized flooding issues in areas that have
seen repeated rounds of rainfall in the last week. High temperatures
are only expected to rebound into the 70's due to clouds and showers.

Showers will come to an end after the cold frontal passage in the
afternoon hours with some showers and thunderstorms lingering into
the evening across NE PA and the Southern Catskills. Clear skies and
lighter winds with a cool airmass moving in tonight will lead to
temperatures falling into the 40's tomorrow night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

330 PM Update...A high amplitude trof will extend from eastern QC
into the Northeast CONUS on Monday with cyclonic NW flow across
central NY and northern PA. Deepest moisture is noted mainly over
northern sections of our forecast area with a drier and capped
atmosphere further south. A lobe of vorticity swings through and
will force the development of scattered showers within the unstable
cold pool aloft. High pressure builds into the region Monday night
with limited moisture aloft. This should result in clear skies and
abnormally colder temperatures for early June. Have introduced
patchy frost to the forecast with temperatures overnight dipping
into the mid-upper 30s. Refinements over the next couple days will
address the need for frost/freeze statements.

Tuesday will see a southwesterly return flow and a swath of warm and
moist air advection which could trigger a few rain showers mainly in
north central NY. Otherwise, moderating temperatures and increasing
clouds to cover the rest of forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

330 PM Update...Blended the latest NBM guidance with our current
forecast for this update as model trends have been fairly similar
since early this morning.

For Tuesday night, the area will become entrenched within the warm
sector south of the initial impulse of isentropic lift. Lift
continues within a warm/moist advection regime associated with a low
level jet core surging across western to northern NY. Light rain
showers as per all 3 main medium range models reach northern and
western NY with the rest of central NY and northeast PA mainly dry
overnight.

Unsettled conditions spread across our area Wednesday-Thursday as a
cold front approaches. Blended guidance didn't change much with
uncertainty in timing and placement of any showers limiting rain
opportunities to chance POPs. Suspicions are that we will have
showers these two days, but confidence in areal coverage is rather
low.

Models continue to diverge from Thursday onward with ECMWF nosing
high pressure further south into our region. GFS clears out the
northern half of the area, but lifts a secondary wave over the
boundary stalled to our south. This provides a continuation of rain
chances over mainly NEPA and the southern Tier NY into Thursday
night. EC and GEFS come more in line with a stronger surface high
resulting in a dry Friday-Saturday while the GFS and GGEM back
moisture into the area from the south. Blended guidance splits the
middle here, but will tailor PoPs with more of a diurnal trend.
Either way, PoPs not very high and we can refine with later
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected at all sites. However,
thunderstorms are likely to form between 21 and 00z then end by
mid-evening. Timing of the showers and thunderstorms was
estimated through TEMPO groups given some lingering
uncertainty. Thunderstorms are not expected to last the
duration of the TEMPO groups. Storms look to stay south of KRME
at this time. Winds should be around 10 knots or less.

Sunday afternoon and night...Scattered rain showers with a few
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening causing intermittent
restrictions.

Monday... Mainly VFR, Cooler air moving in along with a few
rain showers across the north.

Tuesday...VFR expected.

Wednesday and Thursday...Additional restrictions possible in
showers and storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MWG

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
510 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

NYZ024-PAZ038-012200-
Chemung NY-Bradford PA-
510 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...FAR SOUTHEASTERN CHEMUNG AND
NORTHWESTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 509 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pine City, or 7 miles south of West Elmira, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chemung, Waverly, Ridgebury, South Waverly, Wellsburg, Lowman,
Gillett, East Smithfield, Bentley Creek and Dunning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4203 7690 4204 7655 4201 7656 4200 7654
      4182 7656 4194 7691
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 275DEG 12KT 4198 7686

BJT

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