Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly winds will pull hot and humid air into NY and PA on
Monday with thunderstorms possible again during the afternoon.
However, storms will be mostly diurnally driven on Monday with
the lack of any significant forcing. More showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and especially Wednesday as
as a strong cold front pushes through Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Surface high pressure and cool
conditions for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

More widespread thunderstorms developing across the region
today as a short wave crosses. Some storms could severe, as CAPE
values top out above 1500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 35
knots. There is also a threat for flash flooding into this
evening, with forecast soundings showing PWATs topping out over
1.75" and short Corfidi vectors indicate a good possibility for
back building cells/training.

Southwest return flow pushes hot and humid air into NY and PA
for Monday. Temperatures will rise to between 85 and 90 degrees
across the Twin Tiers with heat indices possibly reaching the
mid-90s. Another round of thunderstorms is likely during the
afternoon peak heating, but any perturbations pushing through
the westerly zonal flow aloft tomorrow appear weak, so forcing
will be quite limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Surface high pressure pushes over the NE U.S. with upper trough
starting to dip down from Ontario Tuesday evening. Highest
chances for thunderstorms will be across the southern forecast
area during max heating, but rain chances will depend on
positioning of the high. Euro keeps most of the region dry, with
most rainfall to the south of the area. Tend to lean more
towards the Euro solution as the GFS seems to be digging upper
trough too quickly into the region Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes made to the long term forecast with cooler high
pressure pushing into the region towards the end of the week
after a cold front passes Wednesday into Thursday.

345 AM Update...
Warmth and humidity sneak back into the area one more time
Wednesday, in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front.
This will provide fuel for a likely batch of thunderstorms as
the front passes through sometime in the late Wednesday-
Wednesday night time frame. Some potential for stronger
storms from higher shear values but details will be sorted out
with more confidence in coming days. It would not be unheard of
for a pre-frontal trough to complicate the set-up as often
happens in our region.

There is still at least a small chance for lingering convection
Thursday, but most model guidance has post-frontal cool and dry
air advection quickly getting underway which will lead to a
quiet period lasting right into next weekend.

Previous discussion...
Used National Blend of Models (NBM) as a starting point for
this period. All synoptic models show a large upper trough
building into the northeast U.S by Friday with a large canadian
high pressure following the trough. This trough will push a cold
front through the region from Wednesday night to Thursday night
depending on which model you look at. So used the blend to
populate the POPs in this time period. All synoptic models and
the NBM agree that cooler and drier air covers the region for
Friday and Saturday so have POPs less than 15 percent both days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
New day, same story...showers and thunderstorms will spread
across the region this afternoon and evening and should
dissipate after sunset. Any storm could certainly bring IFR
restrictions, but will have to amend as necessary if any site is
to see a direct hit. Forecast confidence is low for overnight
and into early Monday morning. Some model guidance is bringing
in mid to upper level cloud cover and that should be enough to
hinder fog development. However, if any site sees significant
rainfall from thunderstorms today, IFR fog may certainly
develop, even with cloud cover overnight.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon to Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers
and storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK/MDP
LONG TERM...MPK/MDP
AVIATION...MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-191930-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists this afternoon and
evening. A few thunderstorms will produce very heavy downpours and
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S MONDAY...

Temperatures will approach 90 degrees in many areas on Monday and
combine with high humidity to produce heat indices in the 90s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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