Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
259 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

At 3 PM, a scattered thunderstorms were developing along a cold
front which extended from Dodge Center MN to Wausau WI. There was
an isolated severe storm in Jackson and Monroe counties in central
Wisconsin. Further north, a shortwave trough was generating
scattered storms across northern Wisconsin. A few of these storms
were severe in northeast Wisconsin.

For late this afternoon and evening, the 07.12z models are in good
agreement that the deep (0-6 km) shear will remain weak. The
0-3 km shear will be in the 20 to 25 knot range and 0-1 km ML CAPE
will range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Due to this, expect isolated
strong to severe storms through 8 PM across north-central and
central Wisconsin. The main threats will be hail up to quarters
and damaging winds.

High pressure will then provide dry weather through Friday night.
High temperatures will range from lower 70s to lower 80s. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 40s to upper 50s.

The chances of showers and storms will return to the forecast for
Saturday afternoon and night. While the shear is favorable for
supercells, the instability does not look good at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

A cold front will move through the area Saturday night/Sunday
morning, bringing with it shower/storm chances. At this time,
instability looks to be limited due to a drier airmass expected to
be in place and the time of arrival. Thereafter, upper-level ridging
will become more zonal, which should keep temperatures seasonable
for the beginning of next week. A few shortwave troughs may bring
shower/storm chances Monday through Wednesday, but exact timing and
location will need to be refined as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Isolated thunderstorms are possible through early evening but the
bulk of this activity should stay northeast of the TAF sites.
Otherwise, plan on VFR conditions.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Batzek
AVIATION...Wetenkamp

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
415 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-081000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
415 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. A few
could be strong, potentially severe. Main threats include hail
and locally strong winds. The higher threat currently lies along
and north and east of Interstate 94, but could spread farther
south.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There are occasional small storm chances from Saturday into next
week. Severe weather is not currently expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few local spotter groups could be needed this afternoon and
evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rieck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
149 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ032-033-071915-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-
149 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BUFFALO AND
SOUTHERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 148 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Arcadia, moving
east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arcadia, Blair, Dodge, Ettrick, Highway 95 And County D, Beach
Corners, Thimble Park, Highway 95 And County C, North Creek, Peacock
Hill, Tamarack, Frenchville, Square Bluff, Iduna and Hegg.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4432 9165 4432 9117 4425 9117 4425 9115
      4409 9115 4412 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 290DEG 26KT 4419 9152

Wetenkamp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
223 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ029-033-034-042-072030-
Jackson-Trempealeau-Clark-Monroe-
223 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

At 218 PM CDT, radar indicated scattered thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from north of Black River Falls to near
Galesville. Movement was east at 20 mph.

An isolated strong storm is possible with winds up to 40 mph, penny
sized hail, and frequent lightning.

Locations that might be impacted through 4 pm include... Black River
Falls, North Bend, Millston, Hatfield, Franklin, Irving, Merrillan,
Ettrick, Melrose, Warrens, and Pigeon Creek Campground.

If outdoors, seek shelter inside a building if storms approach.

LAT...LON 4408 9034 4410 9147 4448 9079 4448 9032
      4439 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 279DEG 20KT 4442 9075 4413 9127

Baumgardt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
331 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

WIZ017-072130-
Taylor-
331 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT TAYLOR COUNTY...

At 326 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located over northern and
eastern Taylor County.  Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size
hail are possible with these storms.  These storms were moving
southeast at 35 mph.

LAT...LON 4512 9004 4512 9020 4503 9020 4503 9078
      4504 9092 4538 9092 4538 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 298DEG 28KT 4531 9114

JSB