Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Main concern will be the potential for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon with damaging wind the main threat along with large hail.
Heavy rain potential as well going into tonight with some localized
flooding possible.

Quiet right now across the area early this morning as a ridge of
high pressure was passing overhead. GOES IR showing mostly clear
skies as of 2 am with temperatures ranging from the middle 50s in
the favored cool spots of central WI, to the middle/upper 60s
elsewhere.

Monitoring complex of thunderstorms across western Dakotas this
morning. This complex is forecast to weaken somewhat this morning
with remnant MCV progress eastward toward the area by late
morning/early afternoon. Increasing moisture transport/heating ahead
of the MCV is expected to re-energize thunderstorms per latest CAMs
showing strong quasi-linear complex pushing into the area in the 18-
19z timeframe. Plenty of CAPE for fuel but there is the question of
whether storms can become rooted in the boundary layer for
widespread damaging wind threat. Latest RAP sounding showing CAP
eroding with the approach of this convection, so this would suggest
becoming rooted. Of note is the latest 04z ESRL HRRR which shows
pockets of 35 to 45kt max hrly gusts. Previous 02z HRRR output was
showing pockets of 50-55kt...so maybe remaining a bit more elevated
per latest trends? Cape of 2500-4500J/Kg would suggest some larger
hail potential. Will have to keep an eye on how this complex behaves
and how our environment evolves ahead of it. Otherwise, plan on
highs today well into the 80s despite increasing cloud cover and
convection.

Some CAMs suggesting this complex throwing out a boundary for
increasing moisture transport this evening/tonight to focus on for
additional storm development. Preciptable water values creeping into
the 1.5-2 inch range will likely produce some very efficient heavy
rain-makers. If storms anchor/train, could see some localized
flooding problems.

Lingering frontal boundary from eastern WI into northern IA Friday
into Friday night will be the focus/trigger for additional
shower/thunderstorm chances. Otherwise, an increasing warm/humid day
on tap friday. Highs will again be well into the 80s with dew points
in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Low Friday night will be in the
60s/lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Increasing heat and humidity Saturday through Sunday as upper level
ridge amplifies across the region. Highs are expected to be in the
upper 80s to the mid 90s with dew points mainly in the lower 70s.
This will produce maximum afternoon heat indices in the 95-105
range. May need eventual headlines for this heat. There may also be
a small chance showers/thunderstorms Sat N/Sun as there are some
indications of a weak wave coming around the top of the ridge.

A cold front drives southward into the area Sunday night/Monday for
a chance of showers/storms. Highs Monday look to back down into the
80-90 degree range with slightly lower humidity.

Flattening ridge/more high zonal flow Tues into Wednesday brings a
couple weak troughs through the region for shower/thunder chances.
Otherwise, remaining warm with slightly elevated humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Line of TSRA will move through KLSE early this afternoon with IFR
visibilities along with strong winds of 30 to 40 kts. Behind this
initial line of storms, there likely will be a break in more
widespread SHRA/T following this complex of storms, but a second
round of TSRA is still expected later this evening or overnight.
However, adjustments in timing will likely be needed as trends
become clearer. Winds will generally remain southerly outside of
storms into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Today into Tonight
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Moisture and instability will be increasing over the area today into
tonight, with potential for storms to train and repeat over some
locations. Where this occurs is uncertain yet, but given higher
available moisture, any storm will be capable of producing downpours
and locally heavy rains. These heavier rains falling on generally
moist soils could produce excessive runoff and the threat of
flooding or flash flooding.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...JM
HYDROLOGY....DAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
917 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-281430-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
917 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible through this evening. Strong
to damaging wind and torrential downpours along with some
localized flooding are the main threats. Some large hail is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

On and off thunderstorm chances are expected Friday through
next Wednesday. While the severe weather threat looks low, it
remains too early to determine the severe weather risk details
for each day.

Increasing temperatures and humidity will yield heat indices
in the 95 to 105 range over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
100 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E CHARLES CITY        43.07N 92.64W
06/27/2019  M38 MPH          FLOYD              IA   AWOS

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
108 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     HAIL             3 NE IONIA              43.06N 92.41W
06/27/2019  E0.88 INCH       CHICKASAW          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

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