Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS La Crosse, WI

369 
WWUS53 KARX 300446
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1146 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

IAC191-300456-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190530T0500Z/
Winneshiek IA-
1146 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WINNESHIEK COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4290 9207 4296 9215 4308 9208 4308 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 208DEG 20KT 4296 9202 

$$

IAC037-065-300500-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190530T0500Z/
Fayette IA-Chickasaw IA-
1146 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND EAST CENTRAL CHICKASAW COUNTIES...

At 1146 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hawkeye, or 10
miles west of West Union, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Waucoma around 1200 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Alpha,
Richfield, Highway 18 And County V 56, Waucoma Campground and St.
Lucas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4290 9207 4296 9215 4308 9208 4308 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 208DEG 20KT 4296 9202 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Rieck

354 
WWUS53 KARX 300455
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

IAC037-065-300505-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190530T0500Z/
Fayette IA-Chickasaw IA-
1155 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND EAST
CENTRAL CHICKASAW COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4290 9207 4296 9215 4308 9208 4308 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 213DEG 23KT 4300 9198 

$$

Rieck

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
620 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

At 2 PM, a 700-600 mb frontogenetic band continues to produce a band
of showers north of Interstate 94 this afternoon. The meso models
show that this band will slowly weaken late this afternoon.  Due to
this, went with deceasing rain chances through the remainder of the
afternoon.

For tonight and Thursday, an opening closed low/trough, currently
located over west-central Iowa, will move east across Iowa and
northern Illinois. As this occurs, the 850-700 mb frontogenesis will
increase.  With ML CAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg, expect a band of showers
and scattered thunderstorms to develop this evening and then
continue into Thursday morning.  With 0-3 km shear less than 35
knots, not anticipating any severe weather.  Rainfall amounts will
be up to a half inch. Waning of the showers is expected in the
afternoon as the trough drops southeast of the area. Meanwhile,
increasing northwest flow aloft will usher in a weak embedded trough
and a chance of showers/isolated storms into the area late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening. Otherwise, plan on highs Thursday
in the mid/upper 70s amd lows Thursday night in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

Northwest flow aloft continues Friday into the weekend. A low drops
southeast in the flow Friday with models in excellent agreement on
the track mainly northeast of I-94. This will put us in the warm
sector with southwest flow/downsloped air from the Plains moving in.
NAM showing 925mb temperatures warming to near 25C. This is expected
to push highs well into the 80s. Meanwhile there will be some
increasing elevated/2-7km MUCAPE into the 1000-2000J/kg range as a
cold front pushes in from the northeast later in the afternoon/
Friday night. Bufkit showing this elevated instability as well with
an inverted-v look to it. Shear will be weak though, generally in
the 15-20kt range. So, thinking sub-severe storms at this point if
any do form with possibly some gusty wind and small hail.

Cooler air filters in behind the cold front Saturday with highs
topping off in the upper 60s to the middle 70s. Could also see some
lingering shower/isolated thunderstorm chances mainly in the morning
as that frontal boundary slides south through the remainder of the
area.

High pressure builds in Sunday for some much-needed drier weather.
Look for pleasant temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the area Monday afternoon
and linger through Wednesday as low pressure slowly makes its way
across the Northern plains into our region. Temperatures meanwhile
look to be right around seasonal norms with highs in the upper 60s
to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

Cigs: tricky forecast with most models nudging low level saturation
(and MVFR cigs) right up the TAF sites tonight. Latest RAP more
aggressive with northward movement and suggest several hours of MVFR.
For the moment, will hold with current forecast (VFR). Will monitor
and update if northward trends win out.

After low pressure exits east early Thu morning, mostly sct-bkn high
level clouds for Thu.

WX/vsby: inverted trough/elevated frontogenetic region north of low
passing west-east south of the local area tonight will fire up
shra/ts tonight. HRRR/RAP keep this activity south of I-90.

Winds: mostly light/vrb tonight, becoming northwest Thu morning will
passage of low.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne/DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Rieck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1000 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-301000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1000 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...and southwest into central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms are possible, mostly south of Interstate 90.
While lightning and brief downpours will accompany the storms,
there is a small threat for funnel clouds and potentially an
isolate tornado across parts of northeast Iowa and southwest
Wisconsin. This tornado threat exists into the early overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon into Saturday and
again Monday into Tuesday. It is too early to determine if there
will be a severe risk.

Flooding and rises on some rivers continues, including the
Mississippi.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, but local
groups could be needed into the early overnight if storms increase
in strength.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
954 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030-WIZ061-300500-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Grant-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Charles City,
New Hampton, Oelwein, Elkader, and Platteville
954 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...Scattered Storms Moving In...

Scattered storms will spread in from the south late this evening,
continuing into the overnight. Mostly, some lightning and heavy
downpours will accompany the storms. However, there is a small
threat for funnel clouds and potentially a brief tornado. This
small tornado threat goes through midnight, but could linger an
hour or two into the overnight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1122 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-300700-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Waukon,
Charles City, New Hampton, Oelwein, Elkader, Prairie Du Chien,
Richland Center, and Platteville
1122 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...Scattered Storms Overnight...

Scattered thunderstorms will bring lightning and brief downpours
to mainly parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin through
2 am. Small hail could accompany the stronger storms. The threat
for funnel clouds and isolated tornadoes has diminished.

Rieck