Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS La Crosse, WI

685 
WWUS53 KARX 150020
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
720 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

WIC053-121-150100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190615T0100Z/
Jackson WI-Trempealeau WI-
720 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 719 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Osseo, or 12
miles north of Whitehall, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Jackson and northeastern Trempealeau Counties, including
the following locations... Hixton, York, I 94 Exit 98, North Branch,
I 94 Exit 105, Hixton Alma Center K O A and Eleva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4442 9092 4429 9120 4452 9143 4459 9149
      4460 9117
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 310DEG 17KT 4455 9128 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lawrence

384 
WWUS53 KARX 150042
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
742 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

WIC053-121-150100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190615T0100Z/
Jackson WI-Trempealeau WI-
742 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 741 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located approximately 7 
miles south of Osseo, or 10 miles northeast of Whitehall, moving 
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Osseo, York, Northfield, Levis, Pigeon Falls, I 94 Exit 98 and
Highway 53 And County E.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4447 9100 4440 9124 4452 9136 4455 9135
      4458 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 316DEG 12KT 4449 9121 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Lawrence

894 
WWUS53 KARX 150056
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
756 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

WIC053-121-150105-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-190615T0100Z/
Jackson WI-Trempealeau WI-
756 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4447 9100 4440 9124 4452 9136 4455 9135
      4458 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 314DEG 23KT 4443 9112 

$$

Lawrence

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
653 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Main focus is on thunderstorm potential overnight.

Early this afternoon regional radar showed a broad area of
showers/isolated thunder over northern WI into MI within broad mid-
level warm advection. Additional more scattered showers/thunder
persisted to the southwest with low-level moisture transport. At the
surface, a convectively enhanced boundary was set up from NW into C
WI with the synoptic boundary along the Canadian border.

The moisture transport axis and stronger warm advection will
continue to be shunted east through the afternoon and evening with
lessening coverage of ongoing precip. High res models continue to
indicate some redevelopment of storms in northern WI late this
afternoon/evening along the surface boundaries. With surface
dewpoints mainly in the 50s, CAPE values should remain modest,
perhaps up to around 1000 J/kg before waning with loss of heating.
Deep layer wind fields are marginal, but 0-3 km shear of around 30
kts is expected. Locally heavy rainfall is possible under any slow-
moving storms with moisture transport feeding the low-level
boundary, although the background environment isn't particularly
favorable for heavy rainfall. As a result, a few strong or an
isolated severe storm is possible over northern WI, but overall the
threat appears limited in time and space. Without strong forcing,
these storms may struggle to survive as they sink south across the
area. A few additional showers/storms are possible over parts of
northeast IA/southwest WI but with weak CAPE/shear profiles, not
expecting strong/severe storms in this area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Main forecast concerns are on the potential for strong to severe
storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

Frontal boundary will continue to sag south across the area and
looks to stall across portions of southern Minnesota and Iowa and
become a warm front later in the day on Saturday. Where this front
sets up and how much moisture returns to the region will determine
if there will be a severe weather threat Saturday afternoon and
evening. A shortwave is expected to move into the region from the
northwest Saturday afternoon as a surface low edges east. Expect a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the wave. 0-
3 km bulk shear, based on the 12Z NAM12 looks to increase into
the 30 to 35 kt range, possibly a little more. The NAM CAPE
appears to be overdone, indicating dew points that are a little
too high. If storms develop would expected to see a few severe
cells with the potential for damaging winds, and maybe some large
hail if updraft rotation occurs. The storms could then form into
a line as we go into the evening hours and may impact parts of
southwest Wisconsin. Latest SPC HREF guidance would keep most of
the CAPE south of the area. From a synoptic pattern standpoint,
the surface low moving at the area and the warm front in western
sections of our forecast area, raises concern for severe weather
potential. Keep a close eye on the forecast tonight into tomorrow.

Plan on low chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm on
Sunday then high pressure looks to return Sunday night through
Tuesday morning. More zonal flow sets up across the area by midweek
along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. It
looks warmer and more summer-like from midweek and beyond with
highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

VFR conditions expected to continue this evening and much of
tonight, as showers and storms remain north of LSE/RST. Still
watching the potential for lower stratus to blossom overnight,
but to be honest, confidence remains on the low side. Will
maintain a mention of MVFR ceilings for both LSE and RST, though
if stratus develops, it is possible that IFR conditions could be
seen at RST for a time. Just how long any stratus lingers is also
in question, with some hint that it could persist through much of
the afternoon, especially at LSE. Will need to monitor trends
closely overnight.

Additional showers and storms will become possible into Saturday
afternoon, particularly at RST. Meanwhile, gustier southerly winds
will diminish toward sunset, shifting more southeasterly and then
likely easterly at LSE as a frontal boundary becomes draped
through the area.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Lawrence

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
300 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-151200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
300 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Interstate 90.
A few storms could be strong with brief heavy rain, small hail,
and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become severe over southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and far southwest Wisconsin. Damaging
winds and some large hail would be the main threats if
thunderstorms develop.

There are periodic thunderstorm chances next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Local spotter groups may be needed Saturday afternoon and evening
if thunderstorms develop over portions of southeast Minnesota,
northeast Iowa, and far southwest Wisconsin.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Wetenkamp