Severe Thunderstorm Warning 21, NWS La Crosse, WI

567 
WWUS53 KARX 142354
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

WIC019-053-150030-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190615T0030Z/
Clark WI-Jackson WI-
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 653 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Humbird, or 13
miles west of Neillsville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Clark and northwestern Jackson Counties, including the
following locations... Wildcat Mound, Highway 10 And 12, Merrillan,
Snyder Lake, Highway 10 And Bald Peak Road and Alma Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4459 9069 4436 9085 4453 9107 4460 9108
      4460 9092 4466 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 303DEG 25KT 4455 9087 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CA

035 
WWUS53 KARX 150009
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
709 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

WIC019-053-150030-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-190615T0030Z/
Clark WI-Jackson WI-
709 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLARK AND NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 709 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hatfield, or 9
miles southwest of Neillsville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Clark and north central Jackson Counties, including the
following locations... Wildcat Mound, Highway 10 And 12, Merrillan,
Snyder Lake and Highway 10 And Bald Peak Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4452 9098 4460 9097 4460 9092 4464 9092
      4459 9069 4440 9082
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 305DEG 23KT 4449 9076 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Main focus is on thunderstorm potential overnight.

Early this afternoon regional radar showed a broad area of
showers/isolated thunder over northern WI into MI within broad mid-
level warm advection. Additional more scattered showers/thunder
persisted to the southwest with low-level moisture transport. At the
surface, a convectively enhanced boundary was set up from NW into C
WI with the synoptic boundary along the Canadian border.

The moisture transport axis and stronger warm advection will
continue to be shunted east through the afternoon and evening with
lessening coverage of ongoing precip. High res models continue to
indicate some redevelopment of storms in northern WI late this
afternoon/evening along the surface boundaries. With surface
dewpoints mainly in the 50s, CAPE values should remain modest,
perhaps up to around 1000 J/kg before waning with loss of heating.
Deep layer wind fields are marginal, but 0-3 km shear of around 30
kts is expected. Locally heavy rainfall is possible under any slow-
moving storms with moisture transport feeding the low-level
boundary, although the background environment isn't particularly
favorable for heavy rainfall. As a result, a few strong or an
isolated severe storm is possible over northern WI, but overall the
threat appears limited in time and space. Without strong forcing,
these storms may struggle to survive as they sink south across the
area. A few additional showers/storms are possible over parts of
northeast IA/southwest WI but with weak CAPE/shear profiles, not
expecting strong/severe storms in this area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Main forecast concerns are on the potential for strong to severe
storms Saturday afternoon and evening.

Frontal boundary will continue to sag south across the area and
looks to stall across portions of southern Minnesota and Iowa and
become a warm front later in the day on Saturday. Where this front
sets up and how much moisture returns to the region will determine
if there will be a severe weather threat Saturday afternoon and
evening. A shortwave is expected to move into the region from the
northwest Saturday afternoon as a surface low edges east. Expect a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the wave. 0-
3 km bulk shear, based on the 12Z NAM12 looks to increase into
the 30 to 35 kt range, possibly a little more. The NAM CAPE
appears to be overdone, indicating dew points that are a little
too high. If storms develop would expected to see a few severe
cells with the potential for damaging winds, and maybe some large
hail if updraft rotation occurs. The storms could then form into
a line as we go into the evening hours and may impact parts of
southwest Wisconsin. Latest SPC HREF guidance would keep most of
the CAPE south of the area. From a synoptic pattern standpoint,
the surface low moving at the area and the warm front in western
sections of our forecast area, raises concern for severe weather
potential. Keep a close eye on the forecast tonight into tomorrow.

Plan on low chances for showers and possibly a thunderstorm on
Sunday then high pressure looks to return Sunday night through
Tuesday morning. More zonal flow sets up across the area by midweek
along with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. It
looks warmer and more summer-like from midweek and beyond with
highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

South to southwest winds will gust in the 25-35kt range into the
afternoon before beginning to subside late this afternoon/evening.
Broad moisture transport may lead to an isolated shower/storm this
afternoon or early evening. Included VCSH at KRST, but coverage
will be low. Otherwise higher chances for showers/storms are
expected north or south of KLSE/KRST into Saturday, so have not
included rain or thunder. Winds will become light overnight ahead
of a weak front that will approach Saturday morning. Some guidance
is persistent in developing an IFR/MVFR cloud deck overnight into
Saturday. Maintained MVFR ceilings later on overnight for now,
but confidence in this occurring is low, with the RAP indicating
more of a VFR ceiling outside of any convection. As a result, may
need to trend ceilings more optimistically in subsequent updates.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
300 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-151200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
300 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Interstate 90.
A few storms could be strong with brief heavy rain, small hail,
and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and
evening. A few storms could become severe over southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and far southwest Wisconsin. Damaging
winds and some large hail would be the main threats if
thunderstorms develop.

There are periodic thunderstorm chances next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Local spotter groups may be needed Saturday afternoon and evening
if thunderstorms develop over portions of southeast Minnesota,
northeast Iowa, and far southwest Wisconsin.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Wetenkamp