Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS La Crosse, WI

005 
WWUS53 KARX 250026
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
726 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

MNC039-250100-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-190925T0100Z/
Dodge MN-
726 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR DODGE COUNTY...

At 725 PM CDT, a cluster of severe thunderstorms were over most of 
Dodge County Minnesota, moving northeast at 50 mph. Heavy rain and 
gusty winds are expected.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Dodge
County, including the following locations... County Roads 20 And 5,
Oslo, Concord, Eden, Highway 57 And 570th Street, County Roads 6 And
15 and County Roads 5 And 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Minnesota.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9268 4385 9268 4385 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 217DEG 42KT 4412 9276 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Shea

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
608 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Current water vapor showing a strong mid-level trough moving through
the Dakotas/northwest MN. This was pushing a cold front across MN
with radar showing some showers and few storms firing along it.

This front will continue to push southeast into the area by this
evening with a corridor of 1500-3000J/kg of MUCAPE and 0-3km bulk
shear around 30kt in place. Expecting storms to fire by 6 pm
(lasting through 10 pm) as the front pushes in and as cap weakens.
Question is still there as to whether the bulk of these storms will
be surface based as the caps weakens -or- will the cap be strong
enough for mainly elevated storms. This will dictate whether there
will be a tornado threat (if they are indeed surface based) -or-
mainly elevated hail/wind producers. Will keep an eye on all severe
parameters with this situation.

Breezy west winds and cooler conditions expected for Wednesday in
the wake of the low and cold front. With lingering cooler cyclonic
flow aloft, could see a few pop-up showers across northern WI. Look
for highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

High pressure builds in Wednesday night for clear and cool
conditions. Plan on overnight lows mainly in the 40s -coldest in the
sand country of central WI.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

High pressure will hold across the region through Thursday but then
fairly fast west-northwest flow aloft ushers in low pressure across
the Dakotas into MN Thursday night with push of warm air advection
and moisture transport into our area. This should fuel a few showers
and storms. Shower and storm chances continue into Friday as the
cold front pushes through the area. Otherwise, look for highs once
again in the 60s/lower 70s.

Shower and storm chances will be seen this weekend into next week as
upper flow becomes more southwesterly with embedded waves of low
pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

Closely watching showers and storms that have developed just west
of the local area as expected. Based on current timing, those will
advance east and impact RST roughly 01-03Z and LSE 02-04Z, though
with some minor adjustments to timing still likely as storms near.
Brief IFR conditions expected in heavier rainfall, and can't rule
out some hail or brief wind gusts to 40+ knots in any storms, but
with a rapid clearing trend expected once storms pass. Heading
into Wednesday, some passing cumulus clouds are likely as cooler
air aloft works through the region, with winds shifting
west/northwesterly and gusting 20-25 knots at times.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Lawrence

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-251930-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight

Severe storms will be possible across the area between 6 PM and
midnight tonight. The main threat with these storms will be large
hail, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There will be on and off thunderstorm chances Thursday night
through Monday, with periodic heavy rain possible on Friday and
from Sunday night into the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
420 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

IAZ008>010-018-019-MNZ087-094-095-242245-
Floyd-Winneshiek-Chickasaw-Howard-Mitchell-Olmsted-Fillmore-Mower-
420 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

Thunderstorms are expected to form and intensify across parts of
northern Iowa and southeast Minnesota heading into the evening
hours. If you have outdoor plans for the rest of the day, including
high school sports, keep an eye on the weather and storms forming
around you.

Move indoors once thunder is heard or lightning is observed. A watch
will likely be issued for this evening and warnings may follow that.

LAT...LON 4385 9305 4385 9268 4419 9268 4420 9233
      4411 9232 4410 9208 4385 9208 4384 9173
      4350 9173 4350 9161 4308 9161 4308 9208
      4291 9208 4291 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 240DEG 49KT 4324 9267

Shea

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
625 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

IAZ008-009-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-250030-
Howard-Mitchell-Wabasha-Olmsted-Dodge-Fillmore-Winona-Mower-
625 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

While a few thunderstorms have been trying to form in southeast
Minnesota early this evening, much stronger storms are approaching
from the west.

Storms will become more numerous between 7 and 10 PM, with the
stronger storms capable of producing large hail, heavy downpours,
gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes.

A tornado watch is in effect until Midnight. If a storm approaches
your area, or a warning is issued, move indoors. Take shelter until
the storms have cleared.

LAT...LON 4420 9305 4419 9255 4437 9255 4437 9243
      4445 9243 4445 9224 4436 9197 4420 9187
      4403 9159 4400 9144 4385 9128 4384 9173
      4350 9173 4350 9208 4321 9208 4321 9302
      4322 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 240DEG 49KT 4411 9231

Shea