River Flood Warning 61, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
613 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Currently, a broken line of thunderstorms associated with a mid
level shortwave trough/weak surface boundary was working
southeastward through the area early this morning. Otherwise,
temperatures as of 2 am were holding in the mid 60s to near 70.

For today, that weak surface boundary will be hovering across
central IA into southern WI. Models showing an impressive CAPE pool
in place south of this boundary with 0-3km MUCAPE values up to 5-6
kJ/kg. RAP Bufkit indicating cap eroding/auto-convecting in the
vicinity of this frontal boundary south of I-90. Fortunately, bulk
shear will be rather weak in the 15-20kt range and wet bulb zero up
around 13kft (warmer -melting bigger hailstones as they fall). So,
thinking we'll see scattered thunderstorms firing mainly south of I-
90 this afternoon with a few possibly containing up to quarter-size
hail and strong/gusty winds. CAMs show this convection moving south
and dying off later this evening with loss of surface heating.
Otherwise, a warm and increasingly humid day on tap for today with
highs topping off well into the 80s and dew points in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. This will push heat indices into the upper 80s to mid
90s.

Partly cloudy/quiet conditions expected Friday night with lows in
the 60s/lower 70s.

Mid/upper level ridge amplifies over the region Saturday, warming
temperatures into the mid 80s/lower 90s. These temperatures combined
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will produce heat
indices in the 90s to near 100.

Models show an MCS moving through the Northern Plains/northern MN
Saturday night -staying north of the area. Otherwise, fairly muggy
night with lows only dropping into the mid 60s/lower 70s along with
similar dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Sunday could be a tricky forecast as the NAM/GFS show an MCS rolling
southeast into the area (north of I-94). This could throw a wrench
into our temperature forecast if cloud cover/scattered convection
decide to linger through the day. Model consensus yielding highs in
the upper 80s to the lower 90s, but will have to keep a close eye on
how MCS pans out.

A cold front pushes southeast into the area Sunday night/Monday for
a good  chance of thunderstorms. Will have to watch for the
possibility of severe storms as well with higher cape values in the
2.5-4 Kj/Kg range and bulk shear of 25-35kt.

Upper level ridge flattens out through the rest of the period with
several waves rippling through the more high-zonal flow. This will
keep shower/thunder chances in with near normal early July
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Showers/storms slowly sinking southward of the KRST/KLSE airports
and should be clear of the area by 13z, leaving VFR conditions in
its wake. Expecting some regeneration of shra/ts this afternoon
along a lingering frontal boundary but thinking this activity will
remain south of the KRST/KLSE airports. Could see some lower mvfr
cloud cover after 08z tonight along with 3sm br given very moist
lower boundary layer from recent rain.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...DAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
408 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-291100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
408 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue today mainly along and
south of I-90. A few of these storms will be capable of large
hail and strong to damaging winds. In addition, these storms will
be capable of heavy rainfall which could lead to some localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There will be on and off chances for thunderstorms from Sunday
afternoon through Thursday. At this time, it is too early to
determine if there is a threat for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Rainfall, hail, wind, or reports of any flooding today would be
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

DAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
941 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MELROSE                 44.13N 91.00W
06/28/2019  M3.25 INCH       JACKSON            WI   PUBLIC

&&

JSB