River Flood Warning 34, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
546 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Water vapor imagery early today indicated an upper level trough
across eastern Colorado with ridging extending downstream across the
Mid Missouri Valley into the northern plains. High pressure at the
surface encompassed much of the Upper Midwest.

A very pleasant early spring day is ahead as the upper ridge shifts
into the area and the surface ridge slowly pulls east. This
afternoon 925 mb temps will climb to around 6-7C, an increase of 3
to 6C from Friday. Highs will be in the 50s over most of the area,
with parts of southwest WI, especially valley locations, making a
run at 60. Winds will remain light with mostly sunny skies for much
of the day.

Clouds will be on the increase by late today with some showers
spreading into southern parts of the area overnight tonight as the
upper trough moves towards southern IA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Main forecast concerns in the long term are on rain chances, mainly
south of I-90 on Sunday, then a cold front sweeping through Sunday
afternoon bringing cooler temperatures to the region.
Precipitation chances then return Wednesday night into the weekend.

Low pressure will track across Iowa into Illinois on Sunday bringing
rain chances to areas along and south of Interstate 90. Fortunately
this rain will be on the lighter side with rainfall amounts of a
1/10 to perhaps 3/10 inch possible, which should have very little
impact on ongoing flooding concerns in our area. As the low passes,
a cold front will slide in from the north during the day on Sunday
resulting in an increase in north/northeast winds and the
potential for some very light rain/sprinkles along the frontal
boundary. Plan on much cooler temperatures across the area in the
wake of the front for Sunday night through Monday. Cool Canadian
high pressure settles over the area on Monday. Monday looks to be
a classic dew point mix-out day with drier air at and just above
the surface, resulting in a drop in afternoon relative humidity
values. With a fairly wet landscape across the region, cooler
temperatures, and lighter winds, there shouldn't be any
significant fire weather concerns. However, be aware that we could
see afternoon relative humidity values drop into the teens.
Tuesday could be a day to watch a little more closely as southerly
winds start to increase and we will continue to see the drier air
in place across the area. Southerly flow increases across the
area Wednesday into Thursday as a trough digs into the western
CONUS. We will see warmer air and more moisture work north into
the region. A baroclinic zone sets up over the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. Low pressure is expected to develop and deepen along
this zone from Wednesday night through Friday night. We could see
several rounds of rainfall during this timeframe which could
increase flooding concerns over the area. Confidence remains
fairly low on where the axis of heaviest rain will set up with
forecast models indicating differences on the location of the
heaviest rains. Continue to watch this timeframe closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Light winds taking on a southerly component and mainly clear skies
are expected today as high pressure drifts south and east of the
area. Clouds will gradually increase and lower tonight ahead of a
low pressure trough approaching from the west. Although light rain
is possible after 06Z, the highest chances are looking to be
south of Interstate 90, so will not mention at this time. Expect
VFR conditions through much or all of Saturday night, although
will have to monitor the northern extent of rain for MVFR
ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Ice jams will continue along the Black River around the Lake
Arbutus area for the next few days. Plan on fluctuations  in
water levels and some flooding of low lying areas, mainly south of
Highway 95 to Lake Arbutus. Flooding will continue along portions
of the Mississippi River and its tributaries through the weekend.
Please see the latest river forecasts and statements at
weather.gov/lacrosse.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...JM
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
507 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-241200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
507 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flooding continues along portions of the Mississippi River and
some of its tributaries. Ice jams will continue along portions of
the Black River over north-central Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Rising river levels and flooding can be expected along the
Mississippi River and some of its tributaries mainly north of
Interstate 90. For the latest river information and forecasts
please visit weather.gov/lacrosse.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday night
into Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of ice jams and flooding are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Wetenkamp