Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS La Crosse, WI

200 
WGUS63 KARX 020233
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
933 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...Heavy Rain and Flood Threat Diminishing...

.Thunderstorms have significantly diminished in coverage and
intensity this evening. While some additional thunderstorms will 
be possible overnight, they are not expected to produce persistent
heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding. Therefore, the Flash 
Flood Watch has been cancelled. 

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053-020345-
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/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona,
Austin, Preston, Caledonia, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, 
Whitehall, Black River Falls, La Crosse, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, 
Friendship, and Viroqua
933 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Minnesota and
Wisconsin has been cancelled. 

$$

Kurz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

The threat for heavy rain has shifted off to the east this
morning. Due to this, the Flash Flood Watch for this morning has
been canceled. With additional showers and storms expected this
afternoon and tonight, may have to issue another one later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Details in timing and location of convection remain the biggest
challenge in this broad ridge pattern. Abundant convection extends
from the Dakotas all the way into Wisconsin early this morning passing
along CAPE gradient. Better moisture transport and CAPE values
actually focused more west early this morning and hence, as
convection approaches from the west, seeing less and less
organization.

Airmass remains favorable though for locally heavy rain with
precipitable water values exceeding 2" in moisture rich airmass
that is source region for storms. Plus track of upstream
convection has increased overall flooding threat for much of area.
Flash Flood Watch was issued early this morning to account for
that threat. While storm clusters themselves will remain
progressive, shear number of storms may cause biggest issue.
Confidence in flooding actually materializing is low to medium,
but certainly worth watching for.

How convection plays out later in day is still in question. Skill
in this forecasting has been poor in this pattern. Mesoscale
models remain optimistic that convection will become more
scattered during mid day hours as moisture transport signal
becomes more west to east orientated, or parallel to ridge flow.
This could bring a few dry hours? But then redevelopment is
predicted to reoccur given amount of CAPE residing just to the
south. Location of this will also depend on any boundaries from
convection this morning.

Shear profiles and deep moisture suggest storms later today would
pose mainly a damaging wind and heavy rain potential consistent
with trends past 24 to 48 hrs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

Unsettled pattern continues into mid week, but perhaps some
forecast periods where drier and quiet weather could bring
welcomed break.

On Tuesday, broad upper ridge flattens even more, and with passing
short wave along northern U.S. border, cold front could be pushed
further south. This could bring enhancement of more convection at
some point during the day with unstable airmass residing just to
the south. The good news this boundary could slip far enough south
by Tuesday night to bring a short break in the rain threat.

Later in the week, medium range guidance suggests heights falling
along western states which could bring a return to southwest flow
for central U.S. and more unsettled weather. Hard to pin-point any
details that far out, but storm threats will return certainly.

Even more uncertainty going into next weekend as 01.00z ECMWF
builds upper ridge across central U.S. and associated surface
high. Meanwhile 01.00z GFS passes a wave and actually tries to
develop a drier, northwest flow across western Great Lakes.
Interestingly both solutions suggest drier weather perhaps for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

A MCV will approach the area from southeast South Dakota this
afternoon. As it approaches, strong to severe thunderstorms will
develop. They will impact KRST between 01.21z and 02.01z and KLSE
between 02.00z and 02.04z. The main severe weather threat is
damaging winds. However, cannot rule some large hail during the
initial development. During the late evening and overnight, we
will see a transition to heavy rain. Visibilities will become
LIFR/IFR during thunderstorms.

Toward sunrise, the models indicate that there will be IFR/MVFR
ceilings and maybe visibilities.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 909 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

The threat for heavy rain has shifted off to the east this
morning. Due to this, the Flash Flood Watch for this morning has
been canceled. With additional showers and storms expected this
afternoon and tonight, may have to issue another one later today.

Flooding continues in Whitewater State Park in Southeast Minnesota
and along the Platte River at Rockville.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

UPDATE...Boyne
SHORT TERM...Shea
LONG TERM...Shea
AVIATION...Boyne
HYDROLOGY...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
920 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-021100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
920 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of northeast Iowa,
southeast Minnesota, and from southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

More thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. Some
of these storms could be strong to severe with the main threats
being damaging wind, heavy rain, and lightning. Hail will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic thunderstorms chances continue through the week. There
will be an ongoing risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding
where repeat storms occur, but it is too early to determine the
location and exact timing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Rainfall reports are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Boyne