Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS La Crosse, WI

784 
WGUS73 KARX 040113
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
813 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

WIC103-040300-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190704T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Richland WI-
813 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
EASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain in southeast Richland County.  Flash flooding will continue 
from previous rainfall and the additional rainfall in the southeast 
part of the county.

Additional rainfall amounts will be less than an inch near Cazenovia 
and up to 2 inches from the Stetsonville area south.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4321 9029 4321 9035 4355 9031 4355 9019
      4317 9020

$$

JSB

021 
WGUS73 KARX 040118 CCA
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
818 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

WIC103-040300-
/O.COR.KARX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190704T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Richland WI-
818 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
EASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY...

At 807 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain in southeast Richland County.  Flash flooding will continue 
from previous rainfall and the additional rainfall in the southeast 
part of the county.

Additional rainfall amounts will be less than an inch near Cazenovia 
and up to 2 inches from the Sextonville area south.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4321 9029 4321 9035 4355 9031 4355 9019
      4317 9020

$$

JSB

416 
WGUS73 KARX 040254
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
954 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

WIC103-040300-
/O.EXP.KARX.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-190704T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Richland WI-
954 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1000 PM CDT...

While scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue 
over the next couple hours, the heavy rain has ended across eastern 
Richland County. In addition, local law enforcement reports that 
flood waters have been receding, so flooding is no longer expected 
to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 4321 9029 4321 9035 4355 9031 4355 9019
      4317 9020

$$

Kurz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
649 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

At 3 PM, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms was located
across southeast Minnesota. This cluster was moving northeast and
it is expected to continue to move through west-central Wisconsin
and potentially through north-central Wisconsin through this
evening. With downdraft CAPES between 1000 and 1200 J/kg, there is
a potential for some strong, gusty winds in areas where a core
collapses. In addition, maybe some hail in the half to 1 inch
range.

Further to the east and southeast, there are isolated to
scattered showers extending from northern Houston County through
Madison. With weak convergence, expect not much change in this
activity as it moves northeast though Central Wisconsin.

Elsewhere, there are scattered showers and storms in western Iowa.
This is associated with a MCV. The ESSRL HRRR seems to have a good
handle on this activity and it shows that this precipitation will
move northeast across northeast Iowa and central and southwest
Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening. With very weak shear,
not anticipating any organized severe weather. However, would not
be too surprised to see some gusty winds from them.

On the 4th, a shortwave trough will be moving slowly east through
the area. Like today, ML CAPES will range from 2000 to 3000 J/kg
and the 0-3 km and 0-6 km will remain weak. The CAMs continue to
show multiple lines of storms moving through the area. The first
line moves through from mid to late morning into the early
afternoon. The second line moves through from mid to to late
afternoon into the evening. A few of these storms could be
potentially strong in either of these lines.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

On Friday afternoon and evening, another shortwave trough will
move east through the region. ML CAPES will range from 1500 to
3000 J/kg. The 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear is stronger than this
afternoon and Thursday afternoon, but still is not strong enough
for organized convection. However, there is still the potential
for a couple of pulse storms. The main threat would be gusty
winds.

It still looks like high pressure will build across the area for
the upcoming weekend. This high will provide mainly dry conditions
for much of the forecast area. If showers and storms were to
develop, they would be located near Interstate 35.

For early next week, the front will move back north into the area.
This will bring a return of showers and storms to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

Widely scattered pop up showers and storms will gradually diminish
as sunset approaches, and based on latest radar trends it appears
there will be a low probability of these impacting either of the
TAF sites. Will monitor the area of more stratiform rain
currently over Iowa to see if it holds together as it slowly works
northward. Fog potential will exist again tonight with plenty of
residual low level moisture from high humidity and recent
rainfall. Not looking like as favorable of a setup as last night,
but MVFR visibilities will be possible.

Heading into Thursday, the main concern will be potential for a
round or two of showers and storms as a weak cold front drops into
the area. Confidence is quite low in how widespread this activity
may be and whether it will impact the TAF sites, and if so, when.
Afternoon looks to be the most favorable timeframe as instability
increases. Have included just VCSH for now given the lingering
uncertainties.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Kurz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
121 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-041830-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
121 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Severe
weather is not expected at this time, but stronger storms could
produce locally heavy rain, hail, lightning, and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Periodic thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and Friday, with
a lower risk for storms over the weekend. The threat for severe
weather appears low at this time, however stronger storms are
possible and could produce hail, gusty winds and locally heavy
rain.

There is also a storm threat early next week, but it is too early
to discern severe weather risks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Heavy rainfall
totals and any reports of flooding would be appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

DTJ/BOYNE/Shea

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
218 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

MNZ086-087-094-032015-
Olmsted-Dodge-Mower-
218 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OLMSTED...NORTHERN MOWER AND
DODGE COUNTIES...

At 213 PM CDT, a cluster of thunderstorms were over Olmsted and
Dodge Counties. The thunderstorms are capable of producing small
hail and gusty winds.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Dodge Center, Mantorville, Kasson, Stewartville, Byron,
Chatfield, Eyota, Hayfield, Oronoco, Elgin, West Concord, Dover,
Claremont, Marion, Douglas and Rock Dell.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4420 9305 4419 9232 4411 9232 4411 9208
      4385 9208 4385 9245 4373 9245 4379 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 225DEG 40KT 4399 9279

DTJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
312 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW AUSTIN            43.64N 93.05W
07/03/2019  M0.54 INCH       MOWER              MN   PUBLIC

&&

MEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
543 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CAZENOVIA               43.53N 90.20W
07/03/2019  M3.80 INCH       RICHLAND           WI   PUBLIC

&&

MEA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
553 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053-055-032345-
Buffalo-Juneau-Richland-Jackson-Trempealeau-Vernon-La
Crosse-Adams-Clark-Monroe-
553 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

...Scattered Strong Storms in Parts of Western Wisconsin...

Through 645 PM, scattered strong storms will be found across west
central and central Wisconsin.  These storms will be slow moving and
producing rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour.  This could cause
some street flooding and flood campgrounds.  Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning will occur with
these storm.  Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4364 9031 4356 9031 4355 9019 4330 9019
      4374 9105 4459 9203 4460 9102 4379 8960
      4364 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 254DEG 27KT 4398 9071

JSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE DOUGLAS           44.08N 92.51W
07/03/2019  M0.82 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

&&

MEA