Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS La Crosse, WI

700 
WGUS73 KARX 191538
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1038 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

WIC043-191700-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-190919T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Grant WI-
1038 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY...

At 1037 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Two to three inches of rain have 
already fallen. Flash flooding is occurring. 

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cuba City, Hazel Green, Dickeyville, Georgetown, Kieler, Lock And Dam
11, Sandy Hook, Louisburg and Sinsinawa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 9064 4256 9066 4257 9066 4259 9068
      4263 9070 4265 9076 4266 9043 4251 9042
      4251 9064

$$

Wetenkamp

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
624 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Based on radar trends, expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include
Houston, Fillmore, and Mower counties in southeast MN. Storms have
been focused along the MN/IA border with rainfall estimates of
1-2"/hr via MRMS. Rainfall totals will add up quickly where storms
train over the same areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Heavy rains remain the main concern, especially through this
morning.

Anomalously high precipitable water values up to around 1.75 inches
will remain in place with persistent low-level southerly flow
associated with expansive mid-level ridging ahead of a western US
trough. Early this morning, expect some uptick in elevated
showers/storms per high res model consensus in proximity to the
low-level boundary as a weak shortwave trough approaches. The high
pwats, plentiful elevated instability, and deep warm cloud layer
will support high rainfall rates. A heightened flood risk will
exist in northeast IA/southwest WI from heavy rainfall due to the
wet antecedent conditions. No changes are planned to the Flash
Flood Watch at this time, although will have to monitor trends
over the next few hours. With steep mid-level lapse rates,
stronger updrafts may produce some hail for a time early today. As
the weak wave/possible MCV passes east and convective overturning
reduces the elevated instability, expect a gradual decrease in
showers/storms through the morning. In this pattern, though,
couldn't rule out a few showers/storms through the day, though.

Potential for showers or storms will continue tonight into Friday
in the vicinity of a low-level boundary that will begin to
retreat slowly north as a warm front. Confidence is fairly low on
the evolution of convection tonight with weak forcing underneath
the mid-level ridge, but the elevated instability axis is forecast
to extend from the Dakotas southeast through IA/southern MN and
southwest WI. The push of moisture transport looks to be mainly
west of the MS River tonight, with CAMs favoring the western half
of the area for highest rain chances. The environment will remain
favorable for heavy rainfall with any storms, although coverage of
storms looks lower tonight. Low stratus/fog is possible overnight
tonight into Friday outside of rainfall given the very weak flow.
A warm, humid airmass will persist, with highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The western trough will eject across the northern plains into the
upper Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. Strong northward mass
response/moisture transport ahead of the trough will maintain very
high pwats ahead of the associated cold front with continued chances
for storms. Still expect locally heavy rain to be a threat given
the very moist background environment. Deep layer winds do finally
begin to increase as the upper trough approaches, so at least a
low-end severe weather threat could develop on Saturday
afternoon/evening, depending on how much instability can be
realized. With the strong moisture feed into the area, low clouds
may hinder surface-based destabilization. 0-3 km shear looks to be
mostly in the 25-35 kt range with higher 0-6 km shear along or
lagging the front, so not expecting a widespread strong/severe
event.

A pattern shift will occur late in the weekend into next week as a
drier airmass works into the area behind the cold front along with
more seasonable temps. Some showers/storms may linger into Sunday
across northeast IA/southwest WI before exiting south and east
with a few showers possible through the afternoon as the mid-
level trough swings through. Into early next week, surface high
pressure should provide a few dry days with a split upper flow
pattern dominated by a stronger quasi-zonal northern stream
branch over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Widespread showers and storms continue to slowly advance east
through the area. As of 1120Z, they have cleared RST and will
clear LSE by 13Z based on the latest trends. Outside of heavier
rainfall and MVFR/IFR visibility, conditions are VFR and should
remain that way for much of the day, as thicker mid level clouds
scatter out and some diurnal cumulus develops by afternoon. By
tonight, there are plentiful questions about how clouds will
behave, with some hint that stratus and/or fog might develop late
tonight, but also with some potential for additional scattered
thunderstorms to develop. Confidence at this point remains low
enough to hold off on any widespread lower ceiling mention and see
where later trends take us.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for northeast IA/southwest
WI/far southeast MN this morning. High rainfall rates with storms
this morning will pose a flash flood risk with rises possible on
some rivers. In addition, this area is susceptible to flooding
given the antecedent wet conditions. Additional locally heavy
rainfall is possible into the start of the weekend, especially
Saturday/Saturday evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for WIZ053>055-061.

MN...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for MNZ094>096.

IA...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Lawrence
HYDROLOGY...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
349 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

MNZ079-086>088-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-201200-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
349 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota and central into western Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will diminish this morning, with additional
scattered storms possible tonight. Heavy rainfall and localized
flooding is possible this morning, along with small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday, with
the highest chances Saturday through Saturday evening. Any storms
may produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding. A few storms
may also produce hail or strong winds on Saturday into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed, but rainfall or flooding reports would be
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ094>096-WIZ053>055-061-201200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
349 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this morning.

Thunderstorms will continue through the morning, with additional
scattered storms remaining possible through tonight. Heavy
rainfall is the main threat this morning which could lead to river
rises and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Periodic thunderstorms are possible Friday through Sunday, with
the highest chances Saturday through Saturday evening. Any storms
may produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding. A few storms
may also produce hail or strong winds on Saturday into Saturday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed, but rainfall or flooding reports would be
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
755 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OSAGE                   43.28N 92.81W
09/19/2019  M3.45 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION OSAI4 OSAGE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CHARLES CITY            43.06N 92.67W
09/19/2019  M3.40 INCH       FLOYD              IA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CCYI4 CHARLES CITY.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW HILLSBORO         43.65N 90.35W
09/19/2019  M2.66 INCH       VERNON             WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-VR-1 HILLSBORO 0.5 WSW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
810 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W CLIFTON             43.87N 90.46W
09/19/2019  M2.20 INCH       MONROE             WI   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
816 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S HARMONY             43.55N 92.01W
09/19/2019  M6.56 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTED WATER IN THE
            BASEMENT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
825 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     FLOOD            5 NNW PLATTEVILLE       42.80N 90.51W
09/19/2019                   GRANT              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS STANDING WATER IN
            FIELDS, DITCHES AND THE DITCHES ARE FULL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
834 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 AM     HEAVY RAIN       VIOLA                   43.51N 90.67W
09/19/2019  E2.85 INCH       RICHLAND           WI   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
842 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S ONTARIO             43.72N 90.59W
09/19/2019                   VERNON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER SOME ROADS ALONG THE KICKAPOO
            RIVER WITH ROAD CLOSURES REPORTED.

&&