Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

891 
WWUS43 KAPX 230307
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1007 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

MIZ016>019-021>024-231115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, and Alpena
1007 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...After a lull in the action overnight...snow will again 
  become widespread around daybreak Wednesday with periods of 
  heavy snow through the day before tapering off early Wednesday 
  evening. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Expect 
  significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ035-036-041-042-231115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190123T1700Z/
Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, 
and Standish
1007 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Expect 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>034-231115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Manistee, Cadillac, 
Lake City, and Houghton Lake
1007 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Expect 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-231115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
1007 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...After a lull in the action overnight...snow will again 
  become widespread around daybreak Wednesday. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Wednesday. Expect 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

134 
WWUS43 KAPX 230902
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
402 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019


MIZ016>019-021>024-240000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, and Alpena
402 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Another round of heavier snow will spread into the area
  later this morning and persist through the afternoon. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected 
  today with some localized higher amounts possible. 

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Expect significant 
  reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ035-240000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Ogemaw-
Including the city of West Branch
402 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Periods of snow will persist through much of the day. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Ogemaw County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ036-041-042-231700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190123T1700Z/
Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
402 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* WHAT...Periods of snow will persist through the morning hours
  before diminishing this afternoon. Snow may mix with rain this
  afternoon before ending. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>034-240000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Manistee, Cadillac, 
Lake City, and Houghton Lake
402 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Another round of heavier snowfall will develop across the
  region later this morning and persist through the afternoon.  
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-240000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
402 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Another round of heavier snowfall will develop across the 
  region later this morning and persist through the afternoon. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

790 
WWUS43 KAPX 231540
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

MIZ016>019-021>024-232345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, and Alpena
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

* WHAT...Widespread snow, heavy at times, will persist through the
  afternoon before diminishing early this evening. Additional 
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected with some 
  localized higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect difficult travel conditions,
  including for the afternoon commute. Expect significant
  reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ036-041-042-232100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190123T2100Z/
Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Periods of snow will persist into the afternoon, likely
  mixing with some rain before diminishing by late afternoon. 
  Additional snow accumulations up to 2 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect slippery road conditions with  
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>035-232345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Manistee, Cadillac, 
Lake City, Houghton Lake, and West Branch
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow, moderate to heavy at times, will persist through
  this afternoon before diminishing by evening. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect slippery road conditions and  
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-232345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow, heavy at times, will persist through this afternoon
  before diminishing this evening. Additional snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts
  possible across eastern Chippewa and Mackinac counties. 

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect slippery road conditions, including
  during the evening commute. Expect reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

640 
WWUS43 KAPX 232111
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
411 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

MIZ036-041-042-232215-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190123T2100Z/
Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
411 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Light snow will move through the area late this afternoon into
early evening, but little to no additional accumulation is
expected. Roads will likely remain slippery this evening, however.

$$

MIZ016>019-021>024-240000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, and Alpena
411 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Light snow will continue before diminishing this evening
  with an inch or less of additional accumulation expected. In
  addition, patchy freezing drizzle may produce a light glaze of
  ice on already slick roads.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect difficult travel conditions for the
  evening commute and reduced visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>035-240000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Manistee, Cadillac, 
Lake City, Houghton Lake, and West Branch
411 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Light snow will continue before diminishing this evening
  with less than an inch of additional accumulation expected. In 
  addition, patchy freezing drizzle may produce a light glaze of 
  ice on already slick roads.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect difficult travel conditions for the
  evening commute and reduced visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-240000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
411 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Light snow will continue before diminishing this evening
  with less than an inch of additional accumulation expected.

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect slippery road conditions for the
  evening commute and reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

885 
WWUS43 KAPX 240007
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
707 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

MIZ019-021-022-240815-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.190124T1700Z-190126T0000Z/
Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-
Including the cities of Charlevoix, Mancelona, and Gaylord
707 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Charlevoix, Antrim and Otsego Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  during the evening commute on Thursday. In addition, some
  reductions to visibility are likely. Winds gusting as high as 30
  mph will cause patchy blowing and drifting snow. The cold wind
  chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed
  skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-023-024-240115-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Montmorency-Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Atlanta, and Alpena
707 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Widespread accumulating snow has come to an end. Scattered lake
effect snow showers are possible later tonight and Thursday.

$$

MIZ008-240815-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.190124T1700Z-190126T0000Z/
Chippewa-
Including the city of Sault Ste. Marie
707 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 7 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Chippewa County.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the evening commute on Thursday. In addition, 
  some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds gusting as 
  high as 30 mph will cause patchy blowing and drifting snow. 
  The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause 
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>028-031>033-240815-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0005.190124T1700Z-190126T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Manistee-Wexford-
Missaukee-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Kalkaska, Grayling, Manistee, Cadillac, and Lake City
707 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. In
  addition, some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds
  gusting as high as 30 mph will cause patchy blowing and drifting
  snow. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause
  frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ015-029-030-034-035-240115-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190124T0000Z/
Mackinac-Oscoda-Alcona-Roscommon-Ogemaw-
Including the cities of St. Ignace, Mio, Harrisville, 
Houghton Lake, and West Branch
707 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Widespread accumulating snow has come to an end. Scattered lake
effect snow showers are possible later tonight and Thursday.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
119 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

First warm advection band of light snow is exiting far northern
Lower and working its way through eastern Upper. Area webcams
show only a light coating on some roads, with little impact other
than a temporary reduction in visibility. Looking upstream, radar
returns are starting to fill in over the central and western UP as
a sheared-out shortwave crosses Lake Superior. However, still not
much filling in up to this point over southern WI down into the
Central Plains as the more potent shortwave slowly gathers steam.
That should change soon as we head into the afternoon and the
system drifts farther east, starting to tap into a feed of Gulf
moisture.

The southward/downward trend in QPF continues across northern
Michigan with the latest suite of 12Z guidance for the impending
winter system. Both hi-res and synoptic guidance hint at this
likelihood for the rest of today through tonight. Have tweaked
PoPs and QPF accordingly, which generally reduced snowfall
amounts through daybreak Wed by an inch or so across most of the
area. At this point that wouldn't affect the ongoing advisory
across the area, but it does suggest that upgrading to a warning
anywhere is looking less likely. Will continue to monitor trends
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 341 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...Snow develops This Afternoon and Persists Through Midday
Wednesday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow anticipated across
the entire CWA. A narrower swath of near warning criteria snow
possible.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight composite analysis features
mid level ridging sliding through the western Great Lakes.
Attendant surface high pressure center is just off to our east
centered along the Ohio/Pennsylvania/West virginia borders.
Upstream, respectable short wave trough is digging through the
four corners region and pushing into the central/southern Plains
with attendant surface low just off the Rockies in SE Colorado.
Secondary piece of short wave energy is moving into the upper
Midwest. Decent plume of moisture feeds off the Pacific...up
through Texas and into the Plains/Midwest. Per regional radar
plot, already have a "warm advection wing" of lighter snowfall
that has developed from Minnesota down through Wisconsin and
beginning to nose into lower Michigan.

Lead short wave in the Upper Midwest will slide through the
northern Great Lakes region today, along with the aforementioned
band of light warm advection snow swinging up through the the
region, basically through the morning hours. Not expecting much
with this initial band, perhaps half to one inch in a few northern
locales.

Attention then turns to this afternoon and tonight as southern
stream short wave and attendant surface low emerges into the
plains this evening and up into the Midwest by Wednesday morning.
Very strong low-mid level flow/moisture surge and eventual tap of
Gulf moisture (warm conveyor belt) slated to pivot up through the
Midwest and into lower Michigan as early as this afternoon and
continuing through tonight/Wednesday. Coupled with upper jet
entrance region forcing, expect heavier snowfall to begin
expanding out of the Midwest and into northern Michigan later this
afternoon and ramp up in earnest tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Snow amounts and headline decisions.

Model guidance has certainly shifted the focus for the heaviest
QPF swath and snow amounts into lower Michigan over the last
couple model runs, particularly the NAM and related guidance,
which does not lend to high forecast confidence. Early peek at 06Z
guidance is no exception with another subtle southward shift. Of
course all will depend on the ultimate track of the wave/surface
low. But it is possible that a swath of heaviest snowfall may set
up right across northern lower Michigan, north of the surface low
track and p-type transition zone where moisture feed is maximized
into the colder air, not to mention the additional deformation
snowfall that slides up through the region on Wednesday.

At this juncture, we plan to hoist a winter weather advisory for
the entire CWA with a broad 5 to 9 inches of snow forecast from
this afternoon through Wednesday. Again, a narrower swath of
warning criteria snowfall (8"/12 hours, 10"/24 hours) remains a
possibility cutting through northern lower Michigan. But given
the ongoing forecast uncertainties/shifting model trends, it's
difficult to commit to warning headlines at this point. Will
allow day/evening crew to monitor trends and make upgrades as
necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow continues into
Wednesday with reduced visibilities/snow-covered roads leading to
hazardous travel. Additional accumulating snow possible later
Thursday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: By early Wednesday, potent shortwave
troughing is expected to be centered across WI/IL with attendant
surface low pressure situated across SE WI/NE IL. This area of low
pressure will continue its trek northeast through the remainder of
the day...becoming centered over Lake Huron by Wednesday afternoon.
Accompanying accumulating snow is expected to continue through
Wednesday morning before cold air (although not as cold as the past
several days) pools into the region behind the system Wednesday
afternoon-Wednesday night. Attention then turns toward an incoming
clipper system dropping southeast out of Manitoba/Ontario into the
northern Great Lakes bringing additional accumulating snow chances to
the forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Snow chances/amounts through
the forecast period.

While large scale thinking remains the same as 24 hours ago, so do
the subtle uncertainties as guidance continues to remain
inconsistent with respect to tonight-Wednesday's system track. ECMWF
now remains the outlier, tracking low pressure about 50-75 miles
further south (generally from GRR to Saginaw Bay) than its
counterparts (GEM, GFS, NAM, which take the track from near LDM to
just south of APN). The ultimate track will certainly affect the
placement of heaviest snow and even a bit of mixed precip
possibilities near Saginaw Bay; however, latest trends suggest the
steadiest/heaviest deformation snow will linger across the majority
of northern lower and eastern upper Wednesday morning into the
midday hours, ultimately bringing an uptick in storm total QPF and
resultant snow amounts. Additional accumulation is expected to be on
the order of 1-4 inches through midday Wednesday, highest north of M-
72 to the Tip of the Mitt....lowest near Saginaw Bay. This bringing
24-30 hour total accumulations to 5-8 inches near Saginaw Bay and 6-
9 inches across the remainder of northern lower and eastern upper.
Thus, in coordination with the near term forecaster, have issued a
Winter Weather Advisory to run from late this afternoon/evening
through late Wednesday afternoon. Certainly not out of the question
(as was alluded to in the near term section) that a swath of warning
criteria snow materializes.

By late Wednesday afternoon, a transition to continuing lake effect
snow showers is expected to be underway as deep layer moisture and
synoptic support strip away to the east. Occasional snow showers are
expected across the typical northwest flow snow belts of eastern
upper and northwest lower Michigan during the evening into the
overnight hours; however, given decreasing moisture, not expecting
much in the way of additional accumulation...perhaps up to half an
inch or so Wednesday afternoon.

A relative lull in sensible weather for very late Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning, although some west flow flurries may
continue to dot the map. Otherwise, attention then turns to later
Thursday morning as a clipper system is expected to be racing out of
Canada southeastward into the northern Great Lakes. Snow showers may
arrive as early as late Thursday morning across eastern upper and
northwest lower before gradually spreading eastward across the
majority of the forecast area Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. While accumulation is expected to be rather light for most
areas through Thursday, this will set the stage for lake effect snow
to continue downwind of the lakes Thursday night into Friday, which
early signals point toward the potential for a high impact lake
effect event during that time frame, given increased moisture aloft,
fairly unidirectional northwest boundary layer flow and the
occasional subtle mid-level perturbation providing an uptick in
synoptic support.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Active weather continues with several
chances for accumulating snow through the weekend, along with
another round of very cold temperatures.

As was alluded to above, lake effect snow is expected to continue
Friday into Friday night, along with a return to well-below normal
temperatures as highs struggle to climb past the single digits above
zero. Certainly could be another round of wind chill concerns along
with reduced visibilities and snow-covered roads, at times. This
pattern continues through the remainder of the weekend with periodic
short waves/clippers moving through the flow providing enhancement
to any ongoing lake effect snow showers, although as was alluded to
by the prior forecaster, the one limiting factor may very well be
increasing ice cover as another round of very cold temperatures will
only help to accelerate that process next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

Plenty of dry air over the region has hindered widespread snow
development thus far today, but that is beginning to change
across the UP and Tip of the Mitt. Low pressure organizing over
the Central Plains will tap into Gulf moisture as it lifts towards
the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Snow is expected to
increase in coverage upstream this afternoon as the system
slowly approaches, likely overspreading northern Michigan late
this afternoon into early evening. This will bring a corresponding
lowering of cigs and visibilities as low levels moisten and snow
activity picks up tonight. IFR conditions are likely to develop by
this evening. Some hi-res guidance suggests a possible lull
developing in the snow activity overnight across the Tip of the
Mitt, which would be most likely to affect PLN, perhaps also APN
and TVC. Somewhat gusty SSE winds this afternoon will diminish by
evening as the pressure gradient weakens, then become light and
variable overnight, backing through the day on Wednesday. Another
round of widespread accumulating snow will lift through the area
on Wednesday as the low moves across Lower Michigan.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

Gustier southerly winds anticipated today into this evening
leading to small craft advisory conditions on the lakes.
Winds/waves diminish tonight and remain on the lighter side
through Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MK
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MK
MARINE...BA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
346 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-231100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
346 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Accumulating snow will develop across the outlook area later this
afternoon and persist through tonight, leading to hazardous
travel. Please see latest winter weather advisories for details.

Very cold temperatures will result in rapid ice development and
potential ice jam formation on area rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Accumulating snow will persist across the region on Wednesday and
lead to hazardous travel. Please see latest winter weather
advisories for details.

Accumulating lake effect snow, gusty winds, areas of blowing
snow, and low wind chill temperatures are expected late Thursday
on through the weekend, especially in the snowbelts of eastern
upper and northwest lower Michigan.

Very cold temperatures will result in rapid ice development and
potential ice jam formation on area rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.