Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2019
Winter Storm Warning 12, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Nov 10, 2019, 3:22 PM EST for 4 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Nov 11, 2019, 1:00 AM EST. It was in force for 38 hr. 26 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 10, 2019, 3:22 PM EST (20:22 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 11, 2019, 1:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Nov 12, 2019, 2:56 PM EST
- In force
- 38 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
Counties Benzie County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 9:40 AM EST | SNOW 7 | Maple City, MI | |
| Nov 11, 9:42 AM EST | SNOW 4.5 | Lake Ann, MI | |
| Nov 11, 1:45 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 6 | 5 N Cedar, MI | 12 HOURS ENDING 145 PM. |
| Nov 11, 1:45 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 7 | Suttons Bay, MI | 18 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AROUND 130 PM 6-8 INCHES. |
| Nov 11, 1:46 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 15 | 1 Nw Burdickville, MI | 18 HOURS ENDING AROUND 130 PM. |
| Nov 11, 2:34 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 7 | 2 Wsw Peshawbestown, MI | THROUGH 234 PM. SNOWING LIGHTLY SINCE 900 AM. |
| Nov 11, 4:00 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 9.6 | 3 W Suttons Bay, MI | 24 HOURS ENDING 400 PM. |
| Nov 11, 5:51 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 10 | Frankfort, MI | 12 HOURS ENDING AROUND 530 PM. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. |
| Nov 11, 6:05 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 18 | Empire, MI | 24 HOUR TOTAL. |
| Nov 11, 6:10 PM EST | SNOW 8.7 | 2 Ene Maple City, MI | 24 HOUR TOTAL. CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MAPM4 MAPLE CITY 1 E. |
| Nov 11, 6:20 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 18 | 2 Wnw Burdickville, MI | 24 HOUR TOTAL. |
| Nov 11, 9:00 PM EST | SNOW 8 | Manistee, MI | 12 HOUR TOTAL. CURRENTLY WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. RELAYED BY WPBN (NBC AFFILIATE). |
| Nov 11, 11:00 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 30 | 3 E Empire, MI | VERY ROUGH ESTIMATE OF SYSTEM SNOWFALL TOTAL THRU 11PM EST. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA (WPBN ). |
| Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 16 | Suttons Bay, MI | 24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 6AM EST. REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. |
| Nov 12, 6:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 24 | Beulah, MI | STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL THROUGH 6AM EST. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. |
| Nov 12, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 5.8 | 1 Nnw Wellston, MI | 12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM. SNOW DEPTH 7 INCHES. |
| Nov 12, 7:26 AM EST | SNOW 5.1 | 1 E Grawn, MI | 12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 600 AM. SNOW DEPTH 8 INCHES. |
| Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST | SNOW 4.1 | 2 Ssw Wellston, MI | THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 7 | 4 Wnw Wellston, MI | THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 8.6 | 5 S Benzonia, MI | THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Nov 12, 8:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 19.4 | 5 Ssw Northport, MI | THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS. |
| Nov 12, 8:59 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 15.5 | 3 N Maple City, MI | STORM TOTAL THROUGH 9AM. 3.5 INCHES OF THIS SINCE 630AM. |
| Nov 12, 9:12 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 24 | Empire, MI | 24 HOUR TOTAL. |
| Nov 12, 9:12 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 27 | Empire, MI | CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY SNOW REPORT FROM EMPIRE. 24 HOUR TOTAL. |
| Nov 12, 11:00 AM EST | HEAVY SNOW 11.3 | Lake Ann, MI | THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW EVENT WAS 14 HOURS. |
| Nov 12, 2:11 PM EST | HEAVY SNOW 31.7 | 3 W Suttons Bay, MI | 36 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 200 PM. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 733 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 80 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -60 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
673 WWUS43 KAPX 102022 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 322 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 MIZ020-025-026-110500- /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0012.191111T0600Z-191111T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City 322 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow showers will increase through tonight and becoming heavy on Monday. Where snow showers persist, snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected tonight with an additional 3 to 6 inches anticipated on Monday. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become difficult due to rapidly changing visibilities and slick roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty northerly winds develop Monday and may lead to some blowing and drifting snow. Some lakeshore flooding is also possible in the Grand Traverse Bay area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ021-027-031>033-099-110500- /O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.191111T0600Z-191111T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 322 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow showers will increase through tonight and become heavy at times on Monday. Where snow showers persist, total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are anticipated by early Monday evening. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on rapidly changing visibilities and slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-110500- /O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.191111T0300Z-191111T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 322 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow will increase across the area tonight and continue through Monday. Where snow showers persist, total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected by early Monday evening. * WHERE...Western Mackinac and Beaver Island and surrounding islands Counties. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on rapidly changing visibilities and slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
10 follow-up statements
819 WWUS43 KAPX 110312 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1012 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 MIZ020-025-026-111115- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0012.191111T0600Z-191111T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City 1012 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow showers will increase tonight and becoming heavier on Monday. Where snow showers persist, snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected tonight with an additional 3 to 6 inches anticipated on Monday. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could become difficult due to rapidly changing visibilities and slick roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty northerly winds develop Monday and may lead to some blowing and drifting snow. Some lakeshore flooding is also possible in the Grand Traverse Bay area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ021-027-031>033-099-111115- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.191111T0600Z-191111T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 1012 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow showers will increase tonight and become heavy at times on Monday. Where snow showers persist, total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are anticipated by early Monday evening. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on rapidly changing visibilities and slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-111115- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191111T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 1012 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow will increase tonight and continue through Monday. Where snow showers persist, total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are expected by early Monday evening. * WHERE...Western Mackinac County, as well as Beaver Island and surrounding islands. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on rapidly changing visibilities and slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes on Monday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
374 WWUS43 KAPX 110749 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 249 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 MIZ020-025-026-111600- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191111T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City 249 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow showers. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty northerly will produce some blowing and drifting snow. Some lakeshore flooding is also possible in the Grand Traverse Bay area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ021-027-031>033-099-111600- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191111T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 249 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow showers. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-111600- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191111T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 249 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Lake effect snow showers. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Western Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
627 WWUS43 KAPX 111506 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1006 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 MIZ021-027-032-033-099-111615- /O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191111T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 1006 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Scattered snow showers are anticipated through much of today with minor accumulations. However, heavier lake effect snow showers will move back into the region tonight. A new advisory may be needed at that time. $$ MIZ020-025-026-112315- /O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T1100Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City 1006 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, additional snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches are anticipated through tonight. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to rapidly changing visibilities and slick roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow showers will continue to impact the region through tonight. Heaviest snow showers will impact primarily Leelanau into Benzie county into the afternoon. However, heavy lake effect snow will shift back eastward into Grand Traverse county and Traverse city later this afternoon and tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ030-035-036-041-042-112300- /O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191111T2300Z/ Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Including the cities of Harrisville, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish 1006 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Periods of snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through the day. * WHERE...Alcona, Ogemaw, Iosco, Gladwin and Arenac Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced visibilities. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue to fall across the region through the afternoon hours. Some lake enhancement will occur along the Lake Huron shore from Harrisville through East Tawas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ031-112315- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T1100Z/ Manistee- Including the city of Manistee 1006 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Periods of lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected through tonight. * WHERE...Manistee County. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to rapidly changing visibilities and slick roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest lake effect snow showers will remain just offshore into this afternoon. However, heavier snow showers will shift back eastward into the region later this afternoon into tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-112315- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T1100Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 1006 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Periods of lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected through tonight. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Western Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
638 WWUS43 KAPX 112038 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 338 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 MIZ020-025-026-120445- /O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City 338 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, additional snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are anticipated through Tuesday. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow showers will continue to impact the region tonight through Tuesday. Heaviest snow showers will impact primarily Leelanau into Benzie county into early evening. However, heavy lake effect snow will shift back eastward into Grand Traverse county and Traverse city tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ021-027-032-033-099-120445- /O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.191112T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 338 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Periods of lake effect snow showers through Tuesday. Where snow showers persist, total snow accumulations will range from 4 to 8 inches through Tuesday with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Antrim, Kalkaska, Wexford, Missaukee and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow showers will shift back into northwest Lower Michigan this evening and persist into Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ024-029-120000- /O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T0000Z/ Alpena-Oscoda- Including the cities of Alpena and Mio 338 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of around one inch. * WHERE...Alpena and Oscoda Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue to fall across the region into early evening. Some lake enhancement will occur along the Lake Huron shore from Alpena through East Tawas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ031-120445- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Manistee- Including the city of Manistee 338 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. * WHERE...Manistee County. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest lake effect snow showers will will shift back eastward into the region tonight and persist through Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-120445- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 338 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Periodic lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Western Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ030-035-036-041-042-120000- /O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T0000Z/ Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Including the cities of Harrisville, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish 338 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of around one inch. * WHERE...Arenac, Ogemaw, Gladwin, Alcona and Iosco Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will continue to fall across the region into early evening. Some lake enhancement will occur along the Lake Huron shore from Alpena through East Tawas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
566 WWUS43 KAPX 120012 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 712 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 MIZ024-029-030-035-036-041-042-120115- /O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T0000Z/ Alpena-Oscoda-Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Including the cities of Alpena, Mio, Harrisville, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish 712 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... Widespread and heavier snow has ended. Spotty and light lake effect snow showers will linger tonight. $$ MIZ020-025-026-120815- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City 712 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, additional snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are anticipated tonight and Tuesday. Locally higher amounts are possible. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow showers will continue to impact the region tonight through Tuesday. Heaviest snow showers will impact primarily Leelanau into Benzie county this evening. However, heavy lake effect snow will shift back eastward into Grand Traverse County and Traverse City, mainly after midnight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ021-027-031>033-099-120815- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 712 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Periods of lake effect snow showers through Tuesday. Where snow showers persist, total snow accumulations will range from 4 to 8 inches through Tuesday with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Antrim, Kalkaska, Wexford, Missaukee and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow showers will shift back into northwest Lower Michigan tonight and persist into Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-120815- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 712 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Periodic lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands, and Western Mackinac County. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
760 WWUS43 KAPX 120228 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 928 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 MIZ021-027-032-033-099-121030- /O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.191112T0600Z-191112T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 928 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Periods of lake effect snow showers overnight through Tuesday. Where snow showers persist, total snow accumulations will range from 3 to 7 inches through Tuesday with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE...Antrim, Kalkaska, Wexford, Missaukee and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ031-121030- /O.UPG.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Manistee- Including the city of Manistee 928 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow showers. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches are expected through tonight, especially along the Manistee County coastline. Locally higher amounts are possible. * WHERE...Manistee County. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Tuesday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ020-025-026-121030- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Traverse City 928 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow showers. Total snow accumulations will exceed two feet in portions of western Leelanau and northwest Benzie Counties. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Grand Traverse Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Tuesday morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Overnight, the heaviest snow showers will migrate eastward toward Grand Traverse County and Traverse City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ095-098-121030- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 928 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Periodic lake effect snow showers. Where snow showers persist, additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected through Tuesday. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands, and Western Mackinac County. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
886 WWUS43 KAPX 120749 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 249 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 MIZ020-025-026-031-121600- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, and Manistee 249 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with locally higher amounts expected. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse and Manistee Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ021-027-032-033-099-121600- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 249 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Antrim, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Wexford and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-121600- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 249 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Western Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
000 WWUS43 KAPX 120820 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 320 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 MIZ020-025-026-031-121630- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, and Manistee 320 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches...with locally higher amounts expected. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse and Manistee Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ086-121630- /O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Chippewa- Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard 320 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Western Chippewa County. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ021-027-032-033-099-121630- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 320 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Antrim, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Wexford and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-121630- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 320 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Western Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
736 WWUS43 KAPX 121618 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1118 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 MIZ020-025-026-031-122300- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, and Manistee 1118 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches...with locally higher amounts expected. * WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse and Manistee Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. && $$ MIZ021-027-032-033-099-122300- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Cadillac, Lake City, and Charlevoix 1118 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Antrim, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Wexford and Charlevoix Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ095-098-122300- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 1118 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands and Western Mackinac Counties. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ MIZ086-122300- /O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Chippewa- Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, and Rudyard 1118 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Western Chippewa County. * WHEN...Until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
957 WWUS43 KAPX 121956 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gaylord MI 256 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 MIZ020-025-026-031-122100- /O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee- Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, and Manistee 256 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... Lake effect snow will diminish into the evening, with only an additional or two possible. $$ MIZ021-027-032-033-086-099-122100- /O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Antrim-Kalkaska-Wexford-Missaukee-Western Chippewa-Charlevoix- Including the cities of Mancelona, Kalkaska, Cadillac, Lake City, Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, and Charlevoix 256 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Lake effect snow will diminish into the evening, with only an additional or two possible. $$ MIZ095-098-122100- /O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-191112T2300Z/ Western Mackinac-Beaver Island and surrounding islands- Including the cities of Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, and St. James 256 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... Lake effect snow will diminish into the evening, with only an additional or two possible. $$ http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 10, 3:03 PM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 10, 3:03 PM EST, 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
303 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019
.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 301 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019
...Lake effect snow ramps up leading into Monday...
High Impact Weather Potential: Heavy lake effect snow develops
late tonight and continues through Monday/Tuesday in and around
the Grand Traverse Bay region.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals
broad deep troughing across much of Canada with the anticipated
arctic plunge of cold air (core of neg 28C H8 air spreading down
into northern Manitoba) across west-central Canada...leading edge
of which is already beginning to spread into the northern Plains
and Great Lakes. Surface map reveals low pressure in south-
central Quebec and surface cold front (the very leading edge of
that cold air) stretching back through far SE Lower Michigan into
the Midwest although lake aggregate troughing has set-up from
eastern Lake Superior down through northern Lower Michigan. Strong
Canadian high pressure is building into the northern Plains and
northern Great Lakes and beginning to push colder air down into
the region. Still some rather disorganized lake induced precip
moving through the forecast area at this juncture.
Primary Forecast Concerns: Upcoming lake effect snow event and
associated headlines.
Cold air will continue to overspread northern Michigan as strong
high pressure builds eastward across the northern lakes dropping
H8 temps to between -14C to -17C across northern Lakes Michigan
and Huron and -17C to -22C across Lake Superior by Monday morning.
Forecast soundings/lake convection support steadily improve
through tonight, although still throttled somewhat by strong
subsidence aloft/inversions heights under 8K feet and lake induced
CAPE values under 1000 J/KG. So I don't expect lake effect snows
to become especially intense tonight. That happens Monday into
Tuesday as the upper trough swings into the Great Lakes, lapse
rates aloft increase and lake induced CAPE values skyrocket to
around 1500 J/KG.
Low level mean flow initially starts northwesterly early this
evening but is expected to veer more northerly or just west of
north, with a signal for very strong low level convergence
emerging toward Monday morning west of Whitefish Point and down
along the Lake Michigan shoreline from Grand Traverse Bay south.
This suggests areas west of US-131 will be most heavily impacted
tonight (and Monday), although that will ultimately depend on
where the lake aggregate troughing ends up.
Headlines: Heaviest snow and accumulations come Monday with just a
few inches (1-3) anticipated tonight. But with snow ramping up
tonight, and upon collaboration with surrounding offices, plan to
hoist a winter storm warning for Leelanau/Benzie and Grand
Traverse counties where the highest accumulations are expected,
surrounded by advisories. Later shifts can further refine/extend
headlines as the event unfolds.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019
...Big Lake Effect Early this Week...
High Impact Weather Potential...There could be moderate to heavy
lake effect Monday as the winds veer north tonight and the North to
NNW pattern continues into Tuesday morning. Temperatures remain cold
enough to keep the lake effect at least moderate depending on the
consistency of the wind directions.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...1000-850 mb Winds are already North to
NNW over the state with the snow continuing, but expected to
intensify as the 500 mb jet streak to the south moves into NE Lower
by the afternoon. However, with the 500 mb trough beginning to move
through the region, the coldest air of the season moves in with the
850 mb temperatures falling around -18C on the GFS and ECMWF by
Tuesday morning. This sets up delta Ts of 20+C and with inversion
heights at 10000 feet or better. The lake aggregate trough is over
the Upper Great Lakes from the heat flux and the synoptic moisture
in the 850-700 mb layer is 70-80% rh. CAMs are showing that the lake
aggregate trough is kinking the wind so that an area of convergence
sets up in NW Lower. Put this altogether, and we are expecting
Moderate to heavy snow amounts from some of these bands, with very
heavy snow amounts likely with band convergence through the time
period.
Tuesday morning the wind flow backs to the NW pushing the heaviest
snow bands into the "Big 5" counties (Charlevoix, Antrim, Otsego,
Crawford, and Kalkaska), with moderate amounts in the surrounding
counties. The snow intensity is expected to diminish through the
afternoon as the 1000-850 mb layer ridge axis moves closer to the
region and drier air begins to infiltrate the 850-700 mb layer.
Tuesday evening, the ridge axis moves through the region, and turns
the winds from NW to SSW. This would produce some snow in NW lower,
but probably closer to MBL and FKS, otherwise the band that would
form would impact ISQ to about Naubinway overnight and into
Wednesday evening.
Primary Forecast Concerns...Most of this forecast is dominated by
the cold air that is pushing into the region from the Arctic high
that has been progged over the last few days. So the main concern
will be the wind direction. While temperatures are expected to fall,
and put us into a favorable LES pattern that could support some
really good instability, the main concern then comes down to the
wind direction and how long the wind remains from a particular
direction, and thus how long will the snow be falling in one place.
Also a concern is wind direction changes that could produce band
mergers. Now that the CAMs models reach to this time period, have
tried to factor in the wind changes, and the lake aggregate trough
convergence as well. There is some uncertainty as to where these
band convergences would occur, but think that the models have the
basic idea.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019
High Impact Weather Potential...The rest of the week looks to be LES
dominated as the cold temperatures (<-10c 850 mb) continue.
Extended (Wednesday evening through Sunday)...Wednesday evening, the
trough moves through the region and the winds veer W, and we
continue the chance for snow showers through Thursday. Thursday
night, the winds continue west, and the 850 mb temperatures warm to
around 0C. So will expect no precipitation. The models show another
cold front on Friday, but ECMWF is bringing it through dry, while
the GFS has light precipitation. With the 850 mb temperatures
falling upstream, not sure that I buy it. However, will leave the
forecast as is. The reason I'm not sure about this, is the -15C
temperatures over Lakes Superior and Michigan. Think that with the
instability there will be some snow, but the air is very dry, so it
may be flurries if there are any. Saturday, a warm front begins to
move int the Upper Great Lakes, some light snow in E Upper. There is
a break, before the cold front moves through on Sunday which would
bring some snow during the afternoon and evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019
Colder air will spread into the region over the next couple of
days. Lake effect snow showers will remain a bit disorganized
across northern Lower Michigan this afternoon with a mix of VFR to
MVFR conditions anticipated. Heavier snow showers begin to impact
areas in and around the Grand Traverse Bay region tonight and
particularly on Monday. TVC and MBL will see the biggest impact
with periodic heavy snow showers/IFR conditions on Monday and
continuing Monday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019
Gusty north to northwest winds develop tonight and continue
through Tuesday, and will lead to small craft advisory conditions
on the lakes for the first half of the week.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for MIZ020-025-
026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for MIZ021-
027-031>033-099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
Monday for MIZ095-098.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.
&&
NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BAHazardous weather outlook, Nov 10, 3:07 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 307 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036- 041-042-086>088-095>099-112015- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet- Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena- Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee- Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 307 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2019 This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan... eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Another shot of very cold air will begin to overspread Northern Michigan tonight. This will produce accumulating lake effect snow, primarily impacting areas west of US-131. Please see the latest winter storm warnings and advisories for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Very cold air will continue to overspread the region Monday through Wednesday with temperatures running as much as 15 to 25 degrees below normal. As a result, accumulating lake effect snow is expected in the snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan with significant accumulations possible in some areas. Please see the latest winter storm warnings and advisories for details. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways: Online: weather.gov/gaylord Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord && For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 10:13 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | APX | 68 hr | |
| Nov 10, 3:22 PM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | APX | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Charlevoix, Gladwin and 8 more | 48 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2019Every winter storm warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.