Small Craft Advisory 99, NWS Gaylord, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
337 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 337 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

...Increasing chances of rain late tonight for our western CWA...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure remains centered from the
Great Lakes thru the Ohio Valley to the Gulf of Mexico this
afternoon...maintaining relatively quiet wx across much of the
eastern half of the US. Breaks in our persistent low cloud cover
across mainly NE Lower Michigan are steadily filling back in...and
mid/upper level clouds are beginning to increase across Michigan as
well in advance of a complex area of low pressure developing to the
lee of the Rockies over the Central Plains.

Latest near term models are still showing the developing low center
lifting NE tonight...reaching Wisconsin and Upper Michigan by
daybreak. Deep moisture and strong WAA in advance of this system
will produce an extensive area of precip ahead of this system. Still
expect only our western CWA will see any precip before 12Z...with
rain become widespread across our entire CWA thereafter. Ongoing WAA
and thickening cloud cover will keep surface temps above freezing in
our western CWA overnight...with temps likely warming a few degrees
overnight. This will keep all precip of the liquid variety. The
exception will be a slight chance of some wet snow briefly mixing in
with the rain across Eastern Upper Michigan during the onset. But
with surface temps holding above freezing overnight even in this
region...no snow accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

...Rain Thursday then a little lake effect snow...

High Impact Weather....Northwesterly gales possibly leading to
lakeshore flooding Thursday evening into early Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Lake shore flooding possible.

Low pressure pushes across the region Thursday into Thursday evening
bringing rain and windy conditions to northern Michigan. As the
system begins to pull away from the area, strong cold air advection
will mix down gusty northwesterly winds and change leftover rain
into mainly light lake effect snow showers Thursday night into early
Friday. Accumulations are expected to be light on the order of an
inch or less but gusty winds could blow the snow around lowering
visibility. Perhaps a few leftover northwest flow lake effect snow
showers Thursday morning. Improving conditions are then expected
Friday afternoon into Saturday as high pressure builds in from the
west. It is expected to be mild Thursday then turn sharply colder
Friday before rebounding again Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

...Seasonable temperatures with midweek system precipitation...

High Impact Weather...Mixed precipitation possible toward mid-week.

Fairly quiet weather is expected on Sunday with nearly zonal flow
aloft. Extended models then differ on what happens after that
leaving lots of uncertainty. Chances are that the quiet weather will
extend into Monday. A stronger system may or may not impact the area
Tuesday into Wednesday but there is way too much uncertainly to
know for sure. The model blend has likely pops but this could
change. Hopefully we'll have a better handle on the situation
tomorrow, especially since it's a busy travel time with Thanksgiving
coming up. Temperatures through the period are expected to be near
seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

Low pressure will lift NE out of the Central Plains and into the
Western Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours. Widespread
precipitation will develop along and ahead of this system...
arriving across Northern Michigan very late tonight and Thursday.
Some snow will mix with the rain during the onset...but most of
the precip that reaches the ground will be plain rain. Overall
conditions will remain MVFR thru the 24 hr forecast period...but
could drop to IFR within some of the heavier downpours of rain on
Thursday. LLWS will develop overnight into Thursday as southerly
winds just off the deck strengthen ahead of this system. Surface
winds will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

Low pressure lifts through the western Great Lakes Thursday bringing
rain and gusty winds just below gale force (though a stray gale
force gust or two is possible). Cold air advection is then expected
to lead to a short period of gales across portions of the region
Thursday evening through early Friday, with advisory level winds
elsewhere. Winds will diminish Friday afternoon into Saturday as
high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LHZ345-346-349.
     GALE WARNING from 10 PM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for LHZ347-
     348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LMZ341.
     GALE WARNING from 7 PM Thursday to 3 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Friday for LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING from 7 PM Thursday to 3 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.
&&

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...AS

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