Small Craft Advisory 113, NWS Gaylord, MI

591 
WHUS73 KAPX 171545
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1045 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-172345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.191217T1600Z-191218T2200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1045 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. 

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-172345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.191217T1800Z-191218T2200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1045 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 9 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-172345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.191217T1800Z-191219T0000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1045 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet expected.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI, St 
  Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to 
  Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

885 
WHUS73 KAPX 172031
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
331 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-180445-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
331 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 33 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. 

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-180445-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
331 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 33 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-180445-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
331 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 33 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI, St 
  Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to 
  Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

285 
WHUS73 KAPX 180401
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1101 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

LHZ345-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-181215-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1101 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 33 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-181215-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1101 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 33 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-181215-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1101 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 33 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI, St 
  Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to 
  Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

449 
WHUS73 KAPX 180835
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
335 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

LHZ345-181200-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T1200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
335 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt and highest waves around 3 
  feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-181645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
335 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 8 
  feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-181645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
335 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-181645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
335 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI, St 
  Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to 
  Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

798 
WHUS73 KAPX 181615
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1115 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

LMZ341-LSZ322-181715-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1115 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-182200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1115 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 7 
  feet.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse 
  Light to Norwood MI, Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse 
  Light MI, Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including 
  Little Traverse Bay, Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI 
  and Manistee to Point Betsie MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-182200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
1115 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet.

* WHERE...Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-190000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1115 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt and highest waves around 6 
  feet.

* WHERE...5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI 
  including Bois Blanc Island, Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI, St 
  Ignace to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to 
  Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

319 
WHUS73 KAPX 182011
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

LMZ323-342-344>346-LSZ321-182115-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191218T2200Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
311 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LHZ346>349-182115-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
311 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
326 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

Impactful weather: Lake effect snow and gusty winds developing
later today through tonight. Advisories to be issued.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

One weak shortwave was pressing through the western great Lakes
early this morning, over the top of a relative higher pressure sfc
ridge axis stretched across nrn Michigan. Continued marginal
overlake instability and westerly winds has resulted in low level
overcast clouds across all of nrn lower Michigan. The westerly
overland flow across eastern upper Michigan, has brought on some
holes in the overcast there, but still rather cloudy. Upstream are
the features of interest. WV/IR imagery shows a strong and
negatively tilted upper trough pushing into NW Ontario, associated
with sfc low pressure and strong cold front pushing through western
ontario and srn Manitoba, with very cold temperatures in it's wake.

The western Great Lakes shortwave and axis of some slightly cooler
low level temperatures will cross nrn Michigan this morning, which
may spark off some very light snow/flurries, similar chances as the
last couple of days, but that is not the weather concern to be.
focused on. The main weather story will be the upstream sharper
upper trough that closes off, while dropping SE through Ontario
through tonight. This will drag a strong cold front and those very
cold temperatures down into our neck of the woods. There is not a
lot of moisture with this system (continental air mass from nrn
Canada), outside of a corridor of deeper moisture with the front,
that could bring some light synoptic snow that could help fire some
better lake effect/enhanced snow this afternoon in the west flow
regimes. It's really tonight when the strong cold advection ensues,
and overlake instability deepens, with inversion heights climbing to
6-7kft this evening, that lake effect strengthens. Will have some
DPVA lending a hand on the forcing aspect of things, but most of
that will be to our N/NE tonight. The low level flow will only be
slightly cyclonic, but a decent tap into Lake Superior will help
develop some decent bands of snow in the NW traditional snowbelts
through the night. There are hints of some BL drying/inverted-V look
in fcst soundings by late tonight, and some possible lowering
inversion heights behind the departing wave aloft, which may limit
heavier snow over that time. A tightening pressure gradient later
today and tonight will result in gusty winds that will likely
produce some periods of blowing the falling snow. All-in-all winter
weather advisories will be issued for much of NW lower Michigan and
most of Chippewa county.

Total snowfall will generally range from 3-6 inches in the advised
counties, certainly expecting some locally higher amounts.

High temperatures will mostly be in the low to mid 20s. Lows tonight
will mainly be in the 5F-10F range in eastern upper, to the largely
the 10F-15F range in nrn lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Lingering lake effect snow from
Tuesday night into Wednesday night

Synopsis: A positive-tilt trough will be making its way through the
Great Lakes to start the period with a stronger jet max off of the
New England coast. As this trough progresses into the northeastern
CONUS, upper-level northwest flow takes hold across the region
through mid-week. At the surface, high pressure builds into much of
the eastern CONUS underneath favorable subsidence aloft as an
elongated cyclone continues to move out into the Atlantic.
Isallobaric wind response created between these two will lead to
northwest surface winds bringing cold air down from Canada into the
forecast area during the middle of the work week.

Forecast/Details: Lake effect snow is expected to be ongoing
Wednesday morning across typical northwest flow belts. Heavy
snowfall is possible at times within any organized bands, leading to
relatively quick accumulations and potentially hazardous travel.
Forecast soundings display a very conducive environment for lake
effect snow across northwest lower and eastern upper MI to start
Wednesday. Relatively deep, moist low-level profiles in combination
with lake temperatures in northern Lake Michigan near 7 C will
provide ample support for snow production. Even with cold
temperatures, some modification of the near-surface environment with
lake influences could keep a chunk of the low-level profile within
the DGZ, helping to support some dendrites/larger flake sizes.
While this would help increase snowfall totals, more
needles/columns materializing would lead to more visibility
concerns but lower totals within more intense lake effect bands.

The timeframe of heaviest lake effect snow is expected to last
through Wednesday afternoon before the most favorable
moisture/unidirectional low-level winds begin to depart Wednesday
night/Thursday morning and large-scale subsidence begins to suppress
inversion heights and introduces drier air aloft. Greatest
additional snowfall accumulations from Wednesday morning into
Wednesday night are expected to be between 4-6" in Antrim and
northern Kalkaska counties, with 1-2" in most other areas. This
could bring total snowfall to near 10" in this area, and potentially
12"+ locally by Wednesday evening if heavy persistent banding
occurs. Portions of eastern upper could also see near 8" of total
snow. Additional snowfall is possible mainly across eastern upper
and Tip of the Mitt Thursday morning/early afternoon with
accumulations near an inch. Gusty wind conditions are also expected
to continue into Wednesday night.

Relatively quiet weather is expected to follow the lake effect snow
into the weekend. Frigid air across the forecast area will drop high
temps into the teens across northern lower and into the single
digits across eastern upper on Wednesday. Lows Thursday morning will
dip into the single digits and negatives in those areas
respectively. Wind chills are expected to be in the negative single
digits and even negative teens at times on Wednesday with gusty
winds into the evening. Surface winds shifting to southerly with
veering flow/warm advection aloft will help raise temperatures back
into the low 30s by the end of the week with little additional
precip expected underneath the aforementioned high pressure building
into the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

A shortwave trough/jet max is expected to be moving across the
central US/Canada border at the start of the weekend. favorable
ascent provided in the exit region of this low-amplitude wave could
support a clipper system to move into the Hudson Bay region by
Sunday. While our forecast area could see some precipitation from
this, the majority of impacts are expected to be focused to the
north. Otherwise, somewhat mild temps in the mid 30s look to be in
store for most across northern MI going into the following week.
Surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes underneath ridging
aloft at the end of the weekend, keeping precipitation potential low
heading into the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 102 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

A ridge of higher pressure is draped across the region early this
morning, while a weak area of low pressure and cold front was
moving through western Ontario. A weak westerly wind flow with
overlake instability continues to result in MVFR CIGS across all
airports. A slug of drier low level air is expected to slide
across the region from west to east between 10Z-15Z, lifting CIGS
to VFR. The low pressure deepens a bit through the evening, as it
works eastward across Ontario, dragging the cold front through nrn
Michigan. Chances for seeing snow increase over this time, and
especially tonight as strong cold advection and increasing/gusty
NW winds develop, resulting in bands of lake effect snow. CIGS
will also be returning to prevailing MVFR, with IFR/MVFR VSBYS due
to the snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

Relatively weak westerly winds will increase later this morning,
ahead of a cold front advancing through the region. Winds turn out
of the NW tonight behind the front, while the pressure gradient
tightens. Advisory level wind speeds develop all areas by this
afternoon, and continue through Wednesday under strong cold
advection. Speeds drop off late Wednesday into Wednesday night as
higher pressure swings across the Great Lakes. Lake effect snow will
be common later today through Wednesday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for MIZ086-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for MIZ016-017-020>022-025>028-031>033-099.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LHZ346>349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EST
     Wednesday for LHZ345.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EST
     Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EST
     Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
422 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099-180930-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
422 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Accumulating lake effect snow will occur in the traditional
snowbelts of northwest lower Michigan and eastern upper Michigan
this afternoon through tonight. Gusty winds will also result in
periods of blowing snow. The gusty winds and cold temperatures
will result in sub-zero wind chills by late tonight. Please refer
to the Winter Weather Advisory for further details.

Lakeshore flooding may be an issue tonight into Wednesday morning
for coastal areas of northwest lower Michigan and portions of
northeast lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional lake effect accumulations will occur across the
traditional snowbelts through Wednesday. Please refer to the
Winter Weather Advisory for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.