Small Craft Advisory 101, NWS Gaylord, MI

951 
WHUS73 KAPX 251753
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1253 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

LMZ341-260000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191126T0400Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
1253 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 21 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LSZ321-260000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
1253 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ342-344>346-260000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1253 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-260000-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T1200Z-191128T1200Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1253 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

574 
WHUS73 KAPX 252059
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
359 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

LMZ341-260500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191126T0400Z/
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SR.A.0001.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
359 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a STORM WATCH,
which is in effect from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
night. The GALE WATCH has been cancelled. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of 48 
to 63 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing 
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide 
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider 
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ342-260500-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SR.A.0001.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
359 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a STORM WATCH,
which is in effect from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
night. The GALE WATCH has been cancelled. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased...but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LSZ321-260500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
359 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LMZ344>346-260500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
359 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-260500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T1200Z-191128T1200Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
359 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

419 
WHUS73 KAPX 252108
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
408 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

LMZ341-260515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191126T0400Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.A.0001.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
408 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased...but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LSZ322-260515-
/O.EXA.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
408 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a GALE WATCH,
which is in effect from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
night. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LMZ323-260515-
/O.EXA.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
408 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a GALE WATCH,
which is in effect from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
night. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LSZ321-260515-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
408 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LMZ344>346-260515-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
408 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-260515-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T1200Z-191128T1200Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
408 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ342-260515-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.A.0001.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
408 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased...but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

968 
WHUS73 KAPX 260333
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1033 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

LMZ341-261145-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0101.000000T0000Z-191126T0400Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.A.0001.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
1033 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has cancelled the SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased...but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-261145-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1033 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LMZ323-344>346-261145-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1033 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ346>349-261145-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.A.0013.191127T1200Z-191128T1200Z/
St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1033 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LHZ345-LMZ342-261145-
/O.CON.KAPX.SR.A.0001.191127T0600Z-191128T0600Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
1033 PM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Storm Watch is issued when the risk of storm force winds of
48 to 63 knots has significantly increased...but the specific
timing and/or location is still uncertain.  It is intended to
provide additional lead time for mariners who may wish to
consider altering their plans.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
321 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Nothing terribly eventful in the near-term, though some nuisance-
type wx is expected. An abundance of shortwaves are embedded within
very fast flow that initially extends from the Pacific NW to the mid-
atlantic coast. That flow will severely buckle today, as a prominent
piece of energy dives into the 4-corners region tonight. This is of
course our mid-week system loading up.

At the surface, low pressure is near the ND/MN/Canada border, with
a warm front extending se-ward into WI. We don't have a ton of
moisture available here, but there is enough moisture and lift to
produce a small swath of precip north of the warm front, centered on
far western Superior. The surface low will move east thru tonight
while steadily filling.

The ongoing precip to our nw, north of the warm front, will move e
to ene with time. This activity will clip eastern upper MI, and
Chippewa Co in particular, during the daylight morning hours thru
midday. Temps are presently slightly below freezing, but will rise
with warm advection and diurnal heating. So a mix of rain and snow
showers is possible.

A better chance for showers arrives later in the day, mainly north
of M-32. Another surge of 850-700mb theta-e advection, cooling temps
well aloft, and sub-850mb convergence as a triple point moves toward
Whitefish Bay, all support the idea that some showers should
redevelop, essentially directly over eastern upper and far northern
lower MI by late afternoon. This will be mostly just rain, though by
evening a few snowflakes could mix in. For tonight, once the late-
day activity departs, only have a very small chance for a few mixed
showers over northern lower MI overnight. The cold front will tail
off across this area, with somewhat enhanced low-level moisture
convergence still lingering.

Max temps today mainly low-mid 40s. Min temps near 30 to the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Moderate-high

...Strong low pressure system will bring gusty winds, marine impact,
soaking rains across northern lower and heavy snow in eastern
upper...

Synopsis/Forecast: All eyes are on the Wednesday storm system set to
impact the region with heavy rain, snow and gusty winds. The energy
for this storm is currently digging southeastward off the coast of
Western Canada. Accompanying this is a 120kt jet pushing into the
Pacific northwest. The responsible shortwave digs through the
four- corners region Tuesday morning before swinging northeastward
toward the Great Lakes as a deep and dynamic cut off low. The
associated surface low rides up a pre-laid baroclinic boundary
from the TX/OK panhandle, through the mid-Mississippi Valley
toward the upper Great Lakes. In the wake of this system typical
CAA and lake effect snow take over.

The system has continued to slow and pull farther north over the
last couple days. This has delayed precip timing and resulted in
increased confidence in snow north of the bridge, rain south, and a
sharp transition zone with rain/snow mix near the bridge.

Details/Concerns:

Precip:

Much of the Tuesday daylight hours are relatively quiet and
dry under a weak ridge of high pressure. But this changes overnight
as great dynamics and moisture spread across the area. With a great
Gulf connection PWATs soar to near an inch, well above normal for
late November. Precipitation starts in our southern counties around
midnight as an area of frontogenesis and isentropic ascent pushes
north across us. Current thinking is that precip will start as rain
for much of nrn lower, with some snow mixed in for the higher
terrain. Warmer air doesn't quite make it far enough north for much
besides snow in ern upper. Temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing overnight, thus any freezing rain concerns look negligible.
As far as amounts are concerned, WPC has a wide swath across the
whole area with around an inch likely. The heaviest precip corridor
will be over ern Upper and the straits where over an inch is
possible. With snow ratios at or just under 10, this translates to 8
to 12 inches or more snow possible for ern upper, which stays
entrenched in the sub-freezing air throughout the event.

Steady precip lasts through the morning hours, then a
weak dry slot moving overhead brings a lull in intensity until wrap
around moisture moves in. Northwest flow lake effect will follow
behind the system later Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday with
continued CAA on gusty winds. 850mb temperatures drop so that
deltaT's may reach the 15 to 20 C range, helping support lake
effect.

Winds:

The wind fields start to respond in the evening to the
deepening surface low and increasing pressure gradient. Easterly
winds increase overnight, reaching 15-20 kts by the morning, with
gales likely over the big lakes. Near midday we may get a brief lull
(at least over land) with the center of low pressure passing
directly overhead. Winds back through the afternoon and continue to
gust to well into the 20s over land (with over 30kt on the lakes) as
the low pulls off to the northeast. This will cause lake shore
flooding concerns for portions of Lake Huron late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and for Lake Michigan starting midday and lasting into
the night. As alluded to by the previous shift Grand Traverse Bay
looks especially susceptible to impactful waves and wind as
northerly winds get funneled into the bay Wednesday evening and
into the nighttime hours. Winds remain gusty everywhere through
Wednesday night with the pressure gradient remaining tight between
the departing low and strong incoming Canadian high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

High Impact Weather: Another potentially strong storm over weekend

Thanks to the strong Canadian high passing by to our north, Thursday
and Friday should be much quieter and mostly dry. Slight chances of
precip creep back in from the west as another strong low pressure
system sweeps up from the Central Plains. This system has the
potential to bring more widespread snow through the weekend, which
will impact the backside of holiday travel. Large timing and
strength differences give plenty of uncertainty though.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

Low pressure currently centered north of the Plains will move
into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday...and thru Lake
Superior Monday night. Most of the precip associated with this
system will stay north of our area. The main impact of this system
across Northern Michigan will be increasing clouds and eventually
lowering cigs by Monday night. In the meantime...some patchy fog
is possible overnight...dropping vsbys to IFR in some locations
(mainly MBL). Light/variable winds overnight will become south
around 10 kts on Monday and then shift to the W/SW Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2019

Somewhat brisk westerly winds will persist today, and would not
rule out a few advisory-level gusts. The much bigger story is a
strong area of low pressure that will cross the northern lakes by
mid-week. A slew of gale watches will be posted shortly to account
for this potent system.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
256 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099-251200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
256 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

An impactful winter storm is expected to impact the region Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This will impact travel just before the
Thanksgiving holiday. At this time, the most likely place to see
significant snow accumulation is eastern upper Michigan.

In addition, lakeshore flooding is expected on the coastlines of
Lake Huron and Lake Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

There is potential for another significant winter storm to impact
the region next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.