River Flood Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

729 
WGUS83 KAPX 150118
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
918 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Combination of rain and ongoing snowmelt has resulted in rises on 
the Rifle River near Sterling. The river has reached flood 
stage and is expected to crest Friday, before dropping back below flood stage Sunday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-151317-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.190315T0114Z-190318T0130Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0600Z.190317T1930Z.NO/
918 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Sunday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Thursday the stage was 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.2 feet by early
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    6.0  Thu 08 PM       9.2     7.2     5.5


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

654 
WGUS83 KAPX 151526
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1126 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Runoff from recent rain and snowmelt continues to enter the Rifle 
River Basin. The river has reached flood stage and is expected to 
crest later tonight, before dropping back below flood stage 
Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-160326-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190317T2248Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0000Z.190317T1648Z.NO/
1126 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Sunday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Friday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 9.1 feet by this 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    7.8  Fri 10 AM       9.0     6.9     5.4


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

777 
WGUS83 KAPX 160159
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
959 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Runoff from recent rain and snowmelt continues to enter the Rifle 
River Basin. The river has reached flood stage and is expected to 
crest late tonight, before dropping back below flood stage 
Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-161358-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190317T2248Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0115Z.190317T1648Z.NO/
959 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Sunday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Friday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Sunday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    9.4  Fri 09 PM       6.9     5.4     5.0


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

979 
WGUS43 KAPX 160748
FLWAPX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
348 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Runoff from recent rain and snowmelt has pushed the Rifle Rive to above
flood stage in the last few days. In addition, with temperatures falling
back to below freezing, ice jams may have also formed on the river in the
last several hours producing further rises in river level.

Ice jams and the resulting flooding are very difficult if not impossible
to predict and may last from several hours to several days. A break-up
of an ice jam can quickly produce flooding downstream of a the jam.
Persons in the warned area along the river should remain aware of and be
prepared for rapidly changing river levels and take steps to protect
property from rising water.    

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should remain aware of and be prepared for rapidly changing river levels. Take steps to protect property from 
rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement or
additional warnings for this developing situation as new information
becomes available.

&&

MIC011-161947-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190318T0224Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T1800Z.190317T2024Z.NO/
348 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Rifle River near Sterling.* At  2:30 AM Saturday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Parts of the river will likely remain in minor to
  moderate flood through the weekend.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sun     Mon     Tue

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   10.8  Sat 02 AM       8.6     5.5     4.9


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

338 
WGUS43 KAPX 161052 CCA
FLWAPX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
348 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Runoff from recent rain and snowmelt has pushed the Rifle Rive to above
flood stage in the last few days. In addition, with temperatures falling
back to below freezing, ice jams may have also formed on the river in the
last several hours producing further rises in river level.

Ice jams and the resulting flooding are very difficult if not impossible
to predict and may last from several hours to several days. A break-up
of an ice jam can quickly produce flooding downstream of the jam.
Persons in the warned area along the river should remain aware of and be
prepared for rapidly changing river levels and take steps to protect
property from rising water.    

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should remain aware of and be prepared for
rapidly changing river levels. Take steps to protect property from 
rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement or
additional warnings for this developing situation as new information
becomes available.

&&

MIC011-161947-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190318T0224Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T1800Z.190317T2024Z.NO/
348 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Rifle River near Sterling.* At  2:30 AM Saturday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Parts of the river will likely remain in minor to
  moderate flood through the weekend.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sun     Mon     Tue

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   10.8  Sat 02 AM       8.6     5.5     4.9


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

404 
WGUS83 KAPX 161546
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in ...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Runoff from recent rain and snowmelt continues to enter the Rifle 
River Basin. The river has crested during minor flood stage, 
and water levels have started to drop. It is expected to drop back 
below flood stage Sunday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-170346-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190318T0112Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.190317T1912Z.NO/
1146 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Sunday evening.
* At 11:30 AM Saturday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sun     Mon     Tue

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   10.2  Sat 11 AM       7.7     5.4     4.9


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

533 
WGUS83 KAPX 170137
FLSAPX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
937 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Runoff from recent rain and snowmelt continues to enter the Rifle 
River Basin. The river has crested during minor flood stage, 
and water levels have started to drop. It is expected to drop back 
below flood stage Sunday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-171336-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190318T0600Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.190318T0000Z.NO/
937 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until late Sunday night.
* At  9:30 PM Saturday the stage was 9.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sun     Mon     Tue

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    9.1  Sat 09 PM       5.8     5.3     5.2


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

929 
WGUS83 KAPX 170837
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
437 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The Rifle Rive remains above flood stage due to recent rain and snowmelt.
In addition, with temperatures back to below freezing, ice jams have
likely also formed on the river leading to fluctuating river levels.

The river is forecast to drop below flood stage later tonight. However,
Ice jams and the resulting flooding are very difficult if not impossible
to predict and may last from several hours to several days. A break-up
of an ice jam can quickly produce flooding downstream of the jam.
Persons in the warned area along the river should remain aware of and be
prepared for rapidly changing river levels and take steps to protect
property from rising water.    

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-172036-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190318T0600Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.190318T0000Z.NO/
437 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until late tonight.
* At  3:30 AM Sunday the stage was 9.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Mon     Tue     Wed

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    9.1  Sun 03 AM       5.8     5.3     5.2


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

200 
WGUS83 KAPX 171436
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1036 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The Rifle Rive remains above flood stage due to recent rain and 
snowmelt. In addition, with temperatures back to below freezing, ice 
jams have likely also formed on the river leading to fluctuating 
river levels. 

The river is forecast to drop below flood stage on Tuesday. 
However, ice jams and the resulting flooding are very difficult if 
not impossible to predict and may last from several hours to several 
days. A break-up of an ice jam can quickly produce flooding 
downstream of the jam. Persons in the warned area along the river 
should remain aware of and be prepared for rapidly changing river 
levels and take steps to protect property from rising water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-180236-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190319T1400Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.190319T0800Z.NO/
1036 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Tuesday morning.
* At  9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 8.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Mon     Tue     Wed

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.8  Sun 09 AM       7.6     6.1     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

777 
WGUS83 KAPX 180047
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
847 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The Rifle Rive remains above flood stage due to recent rain and 
snowmelt. In addition, with temperatures back to below freezing, ice 
jams have likely also formed on the river leading to fluctuating 
river levels. 

The river is forecast to drop below flood stage on Tuesday. 
However, ice jams and the resulting flooding are very difficult if 
not impossible to predict and may last from several hours to several 
days. A break-up of an ice jam can quickly produce flooding 
downstream of the jam. Persons in the warned area along the river 
should remain aware of and be prepared for rapidly changing river 
levels and take steps to protect property from rising water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-181246-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190319T1400Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.190319T0800Z.NO/
847 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Tuesday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 8.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Mon     Tue     Wed

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.6  Sun 08 PM       6.1     5.3     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

356 
WGUS83 KAPX 181455
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1055 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The Rifle Rive remains above flood stage due to recent rain and 
snowmelt. In addition, with temperatures back to below freezing, ice 
jams have likely also formed on the river leading to fluctuating 
river levels. 

The river is forecast to drop below flood stage late Tuesday night. 
However, ice jams and the resulting flooding are very difficult if 
not impossible to predict and may last from several hours to several 
days. A break-up of an ice jam can quickly produce flooding 
downstream of the jam. Persons in the warned area along the river 
should remain aware of and be prepared for rapidly changing river 
levels and take steps to protect property from rising water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-190255-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1055 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Monday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to a stage of 6.7 feet 
  by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Tue     Wed     Thu

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.2  Mon 10 AM       7.0     6.0     5.1


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

443 
WGUS83 KAPX 190132
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
932 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The Rifle Rive remains above flood stage due to recent rain and 
snowmelt. In addition, with temperatures back to below freezing, ice 
jams have likely also formed on the river leading to fluctuating 
river levels. 

The river is forecast to drop below flood stage Tuesday night. 
However, ice jams and the resulting flooding are very difficult if 
not impossible to predict and may last from several hours to several 
days. A break-up of an ice jam can quickly produce flooding 
downstream of the jam. Persons in the warned area along the river 
should remain aware of and be prepared for rapidly changing river 
levels and take steps to protect property from rising water.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-191332-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
932 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until further notice.
* At  8:30 PM Monday the stage was 6.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.0 feet by after
  midnight tomorrow. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Tue     Wed     Thu

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    6.5  Mon 08 PM       6.0     5.1     5.6


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

119 
WGUS83 KAPX 191418
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1018 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The Rifle River remains above flood stage due to recent rain and 
snowmelt. In addition, with temperatures back to below freezing, ice 
jams have likely also formed on the river leading to fluctuating 
river levels. 

The river is forecast to fluctuate near or just above flood stage for 
much of the next week. However, ice jams and the resulting flooding 
are very difficult if not impossible to predict and may last from 
several hours to several days. A break-up of an ice jam can quickly 
produce flooding downstream of the jam. Persons in the warned area 
along the river should remain aware of and be prepared for rapidly 
changing river levels and take steps to protect property from rising 
water.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...


Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation this evening, or as new information 
becomes available.


&&

MIC011-200217-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 6.6 feet by 
  Thursday early afternoon. Additional rises may be possible 
  thereafter.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    6.2  Tue 09 AM       6.0     6.1     6.4


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

JZ

750 
WGUS83 KAPX 192106
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
506 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The Rifle River near Sterling has dropped below flood stage
late this afternoon. Gradual snow melt combined with some
periodic light precipitation over the next few days will
result in small variations in river levels through the rest of
the week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-192136-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190314T2348Z.190316T0630Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
506 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* At  3:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 5.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 6.6 feet by Thursday early afternoon. additional rises
  are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at 
  River View Campground.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.5  Tue 03 PM       6.0     6.1     6.4


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...Flooding concerns continue...

High impact weather potential: Runoff from ongoing snowmelt and rain
resulting in significant ponding of water on some roads. River
levels starting to increase, with some minor flooding possible.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Strong shortwave trough and attendant
surface low both in the process of weakening this afternoon as they
pivot northeast through the western Great Lakes. Our area still
firmly in the warm sector, with southerly winds helping drive
temperatures well up into the 40s and 50s early this afternoon. With
dewpoints not too far behind, snowmelt has been excessive,
definitely resulting in significant ponding on some roads. All this
runoff just now making into the rivers, some of which are expected
to show rapid rises as we head through the next 24 hours. While
earlier widespread showers have ended, approach of occluded front
working over an unseasonably moist airmass (precipitable water
values up and over three quarters of an inch) continues to kick off
scattered to numerous showers. Some weak instability aloft supports
a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon. However, while bulk shear
is excessive (well over 60 knots!), better surface rooted
instability remains to our south, so that is where the best severe
weather threat should reside.

Low pressure continues to weaken tonight as it heads rapidly
northeast, reaching western Quebec by morning. Lead front races
across northern Michigan this evening, followed by arrival of
secondary, and more bonafide, cold front early Friday morning.
Shower threat will continue of course, with perhaps a transition to
some snow by Friday morning as that secondary surge of colder air
arrives.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing ongoing flood
concerns and shower/temperature trends.

Details: Occluded front makes steady east progress across the area
this afternoon and early evening, likely clearing our area around
midnight. Showers will continue along and ahead of this front, any
of which will be capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain.
Still think a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but believe any
severe threat remains across southern Michigan and points south
where better surface based instability resides. While rains will be
briefly heavy, fast movement of showers should keep overall rainfall
amounts limited, with most areas receiving less than half an inch.
Any rains will exacerbate the already tremendous runoff from ongoing
rapid snowmelt. No doubt significant ponding on roads will continue,
with some perhaps becoming impassable during any periods of heavier
rain. All this water will make it into the river systems, with rapid
rises expected. Only river actually forecasted to go above flood
stage is the Rifle River near Sterling, with a few others expected
to come close. Lighter showers expected to linger overnight with
passage of weakening shortwave trough and arrival of that secondary
cold front. May see a bit of snow mix in late, especially across
eastern upper Michigan. No snow accumulation expected.

Headlines: Inherited flood watch will continue through its duration
for reasons outlined above. Any non-river flooding that does occur
should remain localized to poor drainage areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...A storm system exits the Great Lakes Friday, triggering a brief
return to winter this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Mild with period of rain early Friday,
then cooling this weekend with lake snows over the wrn lakes...

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: A quick return to winter as
colder temperatures, snowfall enhance water freezing on roads this
weekend.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The Plains storm system which lifted
into the western Great Lakes Thursday, will exit northeast into
Quebec Friday night, while some weakening cyclonic flow lingers over
the Great Lakes Saturday on the backside of the exiting system. At
upper levels, the deep 500mb trough developing over the northern
Plains will settle into the Great Lakes Friday, becoming centered on
the state for the weekend. 850mb temps in the base of the
approaching upper trough will fall back to around -14c this weekend,
helping seasonal temperatures in the upper 30s Friday fall back to
below normal readings, in the upper 20s to around freezing, this
weekend.

Rain continues over northern Michigan early Friday as a cold front
associated with exiting storm system, pushes quickly across the
state. Additionally, an upper trough will move into the region
Friday night. 500/300mb qvectors show the strongest convergence with
the sfc and upper lvl features influences the state, diminishing
over northern Michigan Friday night. Otherwise expect limited
chances for synoptic pcpn Friday night and Saturday as an area of
high pressure drops into the Great Lakes.

Model soundings show a brief period of rain/drizzle across nrn Mi
into Friday afternoon as freezing levels remain above 1500 ft and
upper mstr begins to diminish. However expect a quick transition to
snow by the afternoon as cold air quickly floods back into the
region in the base of a deepening 500mb trough. Will limit pcpn
chances mainly to the wrn Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday, as
model soudnings show the entire vertical temp profile below 0c with
low lvl inversion heights between 5k and 7k and 850/500mb winds
locking in from the northwest. Another shot of snow is possible over
all of northern Michigan Sunday, as a weak surface and upper trough
pass through the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Deep upper trough which settled into the Great Lakes over the
weekend, will slowly push east into the north Atlantic to begin the
upcoming work week, while a second 500mb trough digs into the region
by midweek. 850mb temps in this pattern will warm from around -12c
through Tuesday before warming to around 0c Thursday. This will
generate nearly seasonal afternoon highs in the mid 30s across
northern Michigan through Wednesday, before warming into the 40s
Thursday. Pcpn will be largely limited through the period with a
large area of high pressure centered on the Great Lakes, before pcpn
chances increase Thursday as a strengthening clipper drops across
the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Round of showers, perhaps embedded with a few thunderstorms,
expected to sweep across the area this afternoon and early
evening. Low cigs and reduced visibilities will accompany these
showers, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected. Low level wind
shear will also continue through this afternoon. Cold front
crosses the area this evening, ending the more widespread shower
threat as it passes, but bringing a period of gusty southwest
winds behind it. More lower cigs expected into Friday morning,
with a few more showers, as secondary cold front passes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening for MIZ008-015>036-041-042.

&&

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM...SR
AVIATION...MB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
957 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-151200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
957 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Periods of rain and warming temperatures will continue to lead to
excessive snowmelt over northern Michigan. This will result in
water covered roads, some of which may become impassable. Rises on
area rivers may exceed flood stage. Please see the latest flood
watch and hydrologic statement for additional details.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across all of northern
Michigan this afternoon. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible, especially along and south of M-55. Wind gusts to 60 mph
is the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rain and above freezing temperatures are expected to
continue into Friday. The snowmelt will continue to result in the
potential for water covered roads, as well as river level rises
that will near or exceed flood stage. Please see the latest flood
watch and hydrologic statement for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
all precipitation amounts to the National Weather Service.
Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.