Gale Warning 24, NWS Gaylord, MI

544 
WHUS73 KAPX 310228
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1028 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

LHZ347>349-311030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0024.191031T1600Z-191101T1500Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1028 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from noon Thursday to 11 AM EDT
Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-311030-
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.191031T1600Z-191101T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1028 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Small Craft
Advisory...which is in effect from noon Thursday to 11 AM EDT
Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-311030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.191031T0400Z-191101T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1028 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

206 
WHUS73 KAPX 310848
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
448 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

LHZ347>349-311700-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0024.191031T1600Z-191101T1500Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
448 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from noon today to 11 AM EDT
Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-311700-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
448 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-311700-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.191031T1600Z-191101T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
448 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from noon today to 11 AM
EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

241 
WHUS73 KAPX 311412
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1012 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

LHZ347>349-312300-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0024.191031T1600Z-191101T1500Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1012 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-312300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.191031T1600Z-191101T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1012 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-312300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1012 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

826 
WHUS73 KAPX 311435
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1035 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

LMZ323-342-344>346-312245-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.GL.W.0024.191031T1800Z-191101T0300Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1035 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Gale
Warning...which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM
EDT this evening. The Small Craft Advisory is no longer in
effect. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ347>349-312245-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0024.191031T1600Z-191101T1500Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1035 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-312245-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.191031T1600Z-191101T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1035 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

418 
WHUS73 KAPX 311829
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

LHZ347>349-010230-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
229 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-010230-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-191101T0300Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
229 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 11 PM EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-010230-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
229 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

448 
WHUS73 KAPX 010221
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1021 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

LMZ323-342-344>346-011030-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-191101T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1021 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Small Craft
Advisory...which is in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. The Gale
Warning has been cancelled. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ347>349-011030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1021 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ341-LSZ321-322-011030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1021 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

375 
WHUS73 KAPX 010856
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
456 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

LSZ321-011000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
456 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory. 

$$

LHZ347>349-011500-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
456 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 11 AM EDT this morning. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345-346-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ322-011700-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191102T0500Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
456 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until 1 AM EDT
Saturday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

561 
WHUS73 KAPX 011200
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

LHZ347>349-012000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-191101T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191103T0400Z/
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Small Craft
Advisory...which is in effect until midnight EDT Saturday night.
The Gale Warning has been cancelled. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LSZ322-011300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191102T0500Z/
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory. 

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-012000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191103T0400Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY
NIGHT...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until midnight EDT
Saturday night. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ345-346-012000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0091.000000T0000Z-191103T0400Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY
NIGHT...

The Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until midnight EDT
Saturday night. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI
110 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...Some light rain again today, widespread precipitation
(rain/snow) arrives later tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential: None through today. Some
accumulating snow possibilities tonight (and beyond).

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Deep, positively tilted trough axis and
unseasonably cold air analyzed from central Canada down through
the northern Plains and into the western states. Parent upper
level low is near James Bay. But another piece of strong short-
wave energy is migrating through the SW CONUS. Great Lakes region
remains on the eastern edge of the trough/cold air with an
elongated surface front extending from Quebec down through the
eastern lakes and continuing all the way into east Texas. Very
tight low level thermal gradient/baroclinic zone and associated
strong upper jet core is stretched from the Plains through the
Midwest and Great Lakes.

At the surface, elongated axis of high pressure extends from the
Plains into the Great Lakes providing overall quiet weather across
the north woods for the moment...with just a couple of residual
lake induced showers/sprinkles drifting about in northern Lower
Michigan. Surface low pressure is beginning to organize over the
Gulf coast and nosing northeastward through the lower Mississippi
River Valley. In between, already seeing a nice frontogenetic
response along the tight thermal gradient in the form of an axis
of precipitation expanding quickly through the Midwest and
already nosing into Lower Michigan early this morning.

Deep trough axis will finally make eastward progression through
the northern Plains toward the Midwest and western Great Lakes
through tonight. Southern piece of short-wave energy over the
4-corners region gets detached/pinched off in the process and
eventually advances through the Midwest tonight as a deepening
upper level low...swinging through the Great Lakes on Thursday.
Meanwhile, surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi River
Valley further develops northeastward into the Ohio Valley today
before undergoing rapid intensification over the Great Lakes on
Thursday...as it interacts with the arrival of the deepening upper
low.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Unfolding active weather over the next
24 to 36 hours. Some light precip today. Heavier precip begins to
arrive later tonight with some snow looking likely.

Today: Per latest guidance trends, this initial round of
frontogenetically forced precipitation is expected to set-up
through southern and central Lower Michigan and remain more or
less in place this morning...before weakening a bit and pushing
back off to the SE during the afternoon. SE corner of the
forecast area will likely catch the bulk of this light precip
today. Generally light rain although there could be a little bit
of snow mixing in early this morning just depending on surface
temps.

Certainly turns a lot more interesting/active heading into
tonight as aformentioned deepening upper wave slides into the
Midwest and surface low pressure begins to deepen rapidly,
initially over the Ohio Valley. Expecting another round of
deformation and frontogenetically forced precip to develop over
the Midwest and slide up through Lower Michigan during the course
of the night into Thursday. Precip type with these early snow
events is always a challenge and highly dependent on the overall
thermal profile and cloud microphysics. But it does look like we
get cold enough across inland areas and especially the higher
terrain later tonight for a transition from rain back to mainly
just snow...along with an inch or two of slushy accumulation. Not
planning any sort of winter weather headlines at this point. But
being the first true accumulating snow in northern Lower Michigan,
later shifts may consider an SPS or possibly an advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Strong storm arriving with winds,
snow, and rain

Pattern/Synopsis: Current synoptic pattern features ridging over the
eastern seaboard with elongated troughing extending down into the
northern Plains and Rockies. This troughing digs southeastward
before a vigorous cutoff low forms out of the base, which will swing
up toward our region on Thursday. The great dynamics associated with
this rapidly strengthening system will support a very quickly
deepening surface low, potentially bombing out through the Ohio
Valley on Thursday.

Details/Forecast: Thursday all eyes are on the upcoming winter
storm. There remains some uncertainty regarding the strength and
placement of the low. Most guidance (outside of the NAM) has shifted
the track of the surface low slightly southeast. Precipitation will
be ongoing Thursday morning, with higher terrain getting some snow
or possibly sleet mixed in. Pure rain hangs on longer near the
coasts. A changeover to all snow is likely for the entire area
Thursday night as much colder air (850mb temps nearing -10 C) moves
in. Confidence in snow amounts is rather low still. But, the pure
dynamics of this system, and how rapidly it strengthens gives
confidence to at least some wintry weather and strong winds across
the area. Leaned toward WPC with QPF amounts. The heaviest
precipitation will move through nrn Michigan overnight as the best
fgen/deformation axis rotates through the area. Wrap-around moisture
quickly recedes off to our east Friday morning. We have quite a bit
of dry time Friday as drier air briefly works its way in before the
next low pressure drops south out of Manitoba.

Winds will become gusty with the tight gradient over us. Frequent
gusts into the upper teens over land look possible, with values in
the mid and upper 20s possible along the coasts. Given this
lakeshore flooding will again be a concern mainly for the Huron side
during the daylight hours Thursday, and potentially the Michigan
side briefly Thursday evening and early night. Winds rapidly
diminish Friday morning as the gradient over the area slackens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Lake effect snow

A surface low treking through Ontario will drag a front across us
early Saturday. This forcing combined with plenty of overlake
instability will be more than enough to get the lake machine going.
Profiles will be cold enough for snow. High pressure moving through
the Ohio Valley Sunday may influence our winds enough to bring a
lull in lake effect (at least for nrn lower). This break will be
short lived though, as rounds of shortwaves and cold temperatures
will bring more lake effect Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Overall VFR weather will continue into this evening before cigs
lower to MVFR and precipitation increases in coverage and reaches
the terminal sites. Strong area of low pressure develops over the
Ohio Valley tonight and slides up through the Great Lakes region
on Thursday. Rain initially will be changing to rain/snow or all
snow later tonight. This transition to all snow may never fully
develop at KAPN, however KAPN at this time appears more likely to
see IFR ceilings. Occasional visibility restrictions to IFR are
likely at all sites in heavier snowbands.

In addition, gustier northeast winds begin to develop later
tonight and continue to increase during the day Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

Winds/waves will remain below headline criteria through today.
However, a strong storm system will develop across the Ohio Valley
tonight and track up through the Lake Huron area on Thursday/Thursday
night. Gale force gusts look likely on Lake Huron Thursday, and
plan to hoist a gale watch accordingly. Small craft advisories
will be needed on the rest of the nearshore areas as this storm
moves through.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WATCH from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Friday
     for LMZ323-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...KCW
MARINE...BA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI
1054 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099-311200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix-
1054 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

A strong storm system is expected to develop in the Ohio Valley
tonight and lift up through the Great Lakes on Thursday. This
system will bring a rain/snow mix into northern Lower Michigan
this evening, changing to mainly snow across inland areas
overnight with a few inches of slushy accumulations possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A rain/snow mix will continue on Thursday changing to mainly snow
Thursday night. Additional slushy snow accumulations are expected
across inland areas of northern Lower Michigan Thursday night.

Gale force wind gusts are possible later Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night on Lake Huron and may lead to more lakeshore flooding
and erosion issues.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible in the favored snow
belts of northern Michigan Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.