Alert archive / Michigan / Gale Warnings in 2019

Gale Warning 18, NWS Gaylord, MI

September 26, 2019

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this gale warning at Sep 26, 2019, 4:10 PM EDT. It took effect at Sep 27, 2019, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 8 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 26, 2019, 4:10 PM EDT (20:10 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 27, 2019, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Sep 27, 2019, 4:23 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

The text

As transmitted.

320 
WHUS73 KAPX 262010
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

LMZ344>346-270415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-190927T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0007.190927T1100Z-190927T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0018.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Gale
Warning...which is in effect from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday. THE
Small Craft Advisory IS NOW IN EFFECT until 8 AM EDT Friday. THE
Gale Watch IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ341-342-270415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190927T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.GL.A.0007.190927T1100Z-190927T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.GL.W.0018.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Gale
Warning...which is in effect from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday. THE
Small Craft Advisory IS NOW IN EFFECT until 8 AM EDT Friday. THE
Gale Watch IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ323-270415-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE Small Craft Advisory IS NOW IN EFFECT until 5 PM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LSZ321-322-270415-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ345>349-270415-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$
4 follow-up statements
547 
WHUS73 KAPX 270127
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
927 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

LMZ344>346-270930-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-190927T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0018.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
927 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ341-342-270930-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190927T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0018.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
927 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LSZ321-322-270930-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
927 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ323-270930-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
927 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM EDT Friday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ345>349-270930-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
927 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$
938 
WHUS73 KAPX 270807
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

LMZ344>346-271615-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0078.000000T0000Z-190927T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0018.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM
EDT this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
until 8 AM EDT this morning. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ341-342-271615-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190927T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0018.190927T1200Z-190927T2100Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM
EDT this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
until 8 AM EDT this morning. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LSZ321-322-271615-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ323-271615-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM EDT this
afternoon. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ345>349-271615-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$
390 
WHUS73 KAPX 271455
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1055 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

LMZ341-342-344>346-272100-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1055 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 5 PM EDT this afternoon. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LSZ321-322-272300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1055 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ323-272100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
1055 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM EDT this
afternoon. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ345>349-272300-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1055 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$
437 
WHUS73 KAPX 272023
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

LMZ344>346-280430-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Small Craft
Advisory...which is in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday. The Gale
Warning has been cancelled. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ341-342-280430-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190927T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0079.190927T2023Z-190928T1100Z/
Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Small Craft
Advisory...which is in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday. The Gale
Warning has been cancelled. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ323-280430-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE Small Craft Advisory IS NOW IN EFFECT until 7 AM EDT
Saturday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LSZ321-322-280430-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ345>349-280430-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0077.000000T0000Z-190928T1100Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
423 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM EDT Saturday.

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 26, 4:00 PM EDT, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 26, 4:00 PM EDT, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
400 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Synopsis/Forecast: Overhead troughing is swinging off to our east
this afternoon. Morning showers have completely diminished and skies
have become partly cloudy. Our current Cu field is eroding from the
southwest as drier air under surface high pressure moves through the
nrn Ohio Valley. Gusty westerly winds have been very slow to decline
through the day as plenty of mechanical turbulence has counteracted
the calming nature of the surface high. The core of drier air
quickly moves off to our east early tonight as winds swings out of
the south on the backside of the high. This will bring plenty of
moisture back into the picture as PWATs climb from their low point
of less than 0.5" this afternoon to back around 1.0" tomorrow
morning. Soundings suggest we'll saturate top-down overnight
tonight, with a midlevel cloud (already encroaching into the upper
Mississippi Valley) moving into our region around midnight. There
will finally be a lull in the winds tonight before they ramp up
again (out of the south) early morning as the next surface low
moving into the Dakotas. Guidance is in good agreement with its
track and intensity as it deepens across the upper Mississippi
Valley into Ontario. Clouds will lower and start to increase in
coverage through late tonight and tomorrow with the approach of the
next low pressure system. Overnight lows will be kept from bottoming
out too much with WAA and midlevel cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

High impact weather potential: Slight chance of thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of M-32. Locally heavy
rain also possible.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Progressive pattern expected to end this
week, driven in large part by extended upper level jet stretching
across the entirety of the northern Conus this afternoon. Mid level
shortwave trough tucked under this upper jet core will race
northeast out of the northern Plains tonight...reaching central
Ontario by Friday evening. Attendant strong warm/moist advection
regime looks to bring our next widespread rain event Friday. Brief
return of high pressure to start the weekend gives way to northward
bowing baroclinic axis on north side of maturing southeast
subtropical ridge Sunday, bringing more rain chances along with it.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing heavy rain concerns
and isolated thunder threat on Friday....potential for some patchy
frost Saturday night...and those additional shower chances to end
the weekend.

Details: Rapid development of deep southwest flow will usher in a
much more moist airmass into the region on Friday...all of this
occurring ahead of developing low pressure and its attendant cold
front across the far western Great Lakes. Precipitable water values
still expected to spike up to around inch and a half values across
northern Lower, with a bit lesser amounts as one goes north. Expect
shower coverage to increase during the day, becoming fairly
widespread during the afternoon and evening hours when enhanced low
level convergence is overtopped by passing mid level wave and
favorable upper jet dynamics. All surface rooted cape expected to
pass to our south and southwest, although elevated cape of several
hundred joules/kg expected to spread across much of northern lower
during period of max forcing and moisture advection. This supports
at least some elevated thunderstorm potential, although expect any
severe weather to remain well off to our southwest. Placement and
organization of upstream convection will likely have plenty to say
on eventual placement of heaviest rain axis. Pattern recognition
fits latest guidance trends of heaviest rains tied to more organized
deep convection passing by just to our south (as evident by latest
WPC excessive rain outlook placing slight risk wording to our
southwest, with northern Michigan remaining under marginal risk).
Still think some decent rain totals are possible (especially the
further south one goes), with rain totals perhaps exceeding an inch
by the time the most widespread showers end later Friday night.
Despite wet ground from recent rain, area drainage basins should be
able to handle this additional rainfall. Of course, any heavy
rain rates will be able to produce brief ponding on area roadways.

Cold front expected to exit stage right overight Friday, ending the
shower threat in the process. Start of the weekend still looks dry
and seasonably cool as Canadian high pressure builds into the
northern Great Lakes. Mostly clear skies, especially Saturday
evening, and a cool overhead airmass does support some chilly
overnight lows Saturday night. With that said, not sure full
decoupling will be realized with center of high pressure passing by
to our north. Combine that with what should be some increasing late
night high clouds and one has to wonder just how cold temperatures
become. Noticed latest statistical guidance has trended a bit
"warmer", dipping our coldest locations into the mid and upper 30s.
Cold enough to produce some patchy frost in sheltered areas, but as
far as a widespread frost (headlines?)...just not seeing that given
latest trends.

Plenty of uncertainty on Sunday with regards to additional rain
chances as dry east low level flow undercuts strengthening elevated
moisture return. Increasing mid level heights on northern flank of
maturing subtropical ridge also may act to hinder rain chances some.
And no doubt best moisture convergence and dynamics remain well west
of our area through the day. Current just chancy pop idea will
suffice for now, with still plenty of time to work out the finer
details in the coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

High impact weather potential: Perhaps more significant rain early
next week?

Western trough/eastern subtropical ridge configuration looks to
reach maturity heading into the beginning portions of next week.
Still plenty of uncertainty on just how far north active low level
baroclinic axis will be displaced, although expected proximity of
this zone supports additional shower and thunderstorm chances right
through this period. Will definitely need to monitor, as pattern
recognition supports some significant rain totals as passing waves
ejecting from western trough interact with what should be an
excellent supply of subtropical moisture. Of course, plenty of
changes are possible, if not expected, as yet to be determined
mesoscale convective processes will have plenty to say on the exact
placement of the baroclinic zone.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

VFR conditions are expected through midday Friday. Lingering
showers have diminished and have come to an end this afternoon
with partly cloudy skies. Gusty westerly winds will briefly
diminish and back to southerly this evening and overnight.
Confidence is fairly high that they will ramp up again tomorrow
morning ahead of the next low pressure system early tomorrow
morning, which will also create LLWS for a few hours around
sunrise. Ceilings decrease through late tonight and tomorrow with
the approach of the system. Conditions will likely deteriorate
Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

Gusty westerly winds slowly subside through this evening. There will
be a brief lull in wind intensity tonight as they switch around to
out of the south-southwest, but the nearshore waters will still
remain in near craft advisory criteria through the night. Winds ramp
up quickly tomorrow morning as a new low pressure system moves into
Ontario, and drags a cold front across our region. Shower chances
start to move into Lake Michigan shortly before sunrise, and last
through the day Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016-
     020-025-031-099.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>349.
LM...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ341-342-
     344>346.
     GALE WARNING from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...STJ
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...STJ
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 26, 3:06 AM EDT, 13 hours 4 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
306 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099-270715-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix-
306 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will continue into daybreak across all of
northern Michigan. Severe storms are not expected.

Hazardous beach conditions are expected today on Lake Michigan
beaches of northwest Lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms along and south of M-72
Friday afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible during this time frame across portions of northern lower
Michigan.

Gale force winds are possible over the Lake Michigan nearshore
waters Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 26, 11:38 AM EDT, 4 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1138 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSE GAYLORD           44.99N 84.66W
09/26/2019  M1.11 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-16 GAYLORD 2.2 SSE.

&&

FEF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 25, 9:18 PM EDTBeach Hazards StatementAPXBenzie, Charlevoix, Emmet, Leelanau, Manistee48 hr
Sep 26, 4:33 AM EDTGale WatchAPX12 hr
Sep 26, 7:39 PM EDTBeach Hazards StatementAPXMackinac26 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Michigan, 2019Every gale warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.