Tornado Warning 51, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
656 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Lower than usual certainty with this issuance. Amendments likely
to be needed.

Thunderstorms likely to continue to impact KAMA for the next few
hours, due to proximity to cold front.  GUY may see additional
thunderstorms in the vicinity.  Cold front currently near a line
from Liberal to Skellytown to Happy.  IFR to MVFR ceilings
expected through the evening and possibly through the night at
northern terminals in moist post-frontal airmass.  MVFR to IFR
visibilities in fog expected to develop at northern terminals
before sunrise.  IFR ceilings also expected at KAMA, but could
improve ahead of schedule if frontal boundary lifts north.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019/

SHORT TERM...This Afternoon and Tonight...

**See Mesoscale Discussion issued at 109 PM CDT***

LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

The upper level pattern is not expected to change very much
through the weekend, remaining favorable for moisture return and
modest mid-level flow. Broad cyclonic motion expected to remain
over the western CONUS with high pressure over the southeastern
states through the weekend.

For Friday, a few storms may linger across the southeastern zones
during the morning hours and thus will maintain the Flash Flood
Watch through 18z. Fog is also possible during the early morning,
especially for areas that receive soaking rainfall Thursday.
Theta-E advection picks up in the afternoon helping to push the
dry (cool) air north. However, the models may be overdoing this,
especially if early showers or storms linger (along with low
clouds), with connectively modified boundaries likely not being
resolved well. Moreover, confidence is not high with thunderstorms
activity, and this forecast leans a little more on the lower rain
probs based on this uncertainty. If the atmosphere is able to
recover and the dryline can sharpen (or other lingering
boundaries), strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible with
ample deep layer shear of 40 to 50 knots and potentially moderate
instability. A conditional tornado threat is also possible late
afternoon into the early evening as the low level jet sets up.
Again, this is all contingent on if storms are able to form at
all.

For Saturday and Sunday, a more classic dryline type setup looks
possible. Guidance currently suggest storms will convect on the
dryline near the TX/NM state line during the afternoon and then
move east. The environment along and east of the dryline would
support supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds given
large MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg, 40 to 50 knots of deep layer
shear and steep mid and low level lapse rates. The low level shear
will also increase during the late afternoon and early evening,
resulting in an increasing tornado threat during that time. There
are some hints at a subtle warm layer near 700mb in the pre-
convective environment (via Bufkit profiles), so there could be
some minor ML capping, but all indications are the convection
will have no issues initiating.

The upper trough axis is progged to shift east into the central
CONUS Monday into Tuesday which should push the moisture east of
our area. Thus, a break from severe weather chances is expected
during this time. Storm chances may return towards the end of the
week as hints of another western CONUS trough are showing up in
the long term guidance.

Ward

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                57  76  60  78  61 /  60  40  30  40  60
Beaver OK                  54  78  60  81  61 /  80  30  30  40  40
Boise City OK              44  77  51  79  53 /  10   5  10  60  20
Borger TX                  57  79  61  80  62 /  60  30  30  40  60
Boys Ranch TX              52  81  59  80  60 /  20  20  20  60  40
Canyon TX                  56  79  59  80  60 /  50  40  30  40  50
Clarendon TX               62  74  62  78  63 /  80  50  50  40  40
Dalhart TX                 46  79  52  80  54 /  10  10  10  60  20
Guymon OK                  49  78  56  80  59 /  30  20  20  50  60
Hereford TX                55  81  59  81  60 /  30  30  30  40  40
Lipscomb TX                60  76  62  80  62 /  90  40  40  30  40
Pampa TX                   58  75  61  78  61 /  80  40  40  40  50
Shamrock TX                62  75  63  78  63 /  90  50  50  30  40
Wellington TX              63  77  64  80  64 /  80  50  50  30  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...
     Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...
     Ochiltree...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...
     Sherman...Wheeler.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for the following
     zones: Beaver...Texas.

&&

23/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
325 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-240830-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
325 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are developing this afternoon
and will continue through tonight. Main concerns are for large
hail and flash flooding, but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
A Tornado Watch has been issued for roughly the eastern half of
the Texas Panhandle and far eastern Oklahoma Panhandle until 10 PM
CDT. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the central and eastern
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Sunday night across
the Panhandles and then again Tuesday across mainly the northern
and eastern portions of the Panhandles. Some thunderstorms could
become strong to severe Friday through Sunday evening with large
hail and thunderstorm wind gusts being the primary hazards.

Any slow moving thunderstorms or thunderstorms moving across the
same locations will result in heavy to very heavy rainfall which
could result in flooding or flash flooding issues. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect until 1 PM Friday afternoon for mainly the central
and eastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely today and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
756 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             19 NW MIAMI             35.89N 100.88W
05/23/2019  E1.75 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900764

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
808 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             6 NNW CANYON            35.06N 101.95W
05/23/2019  M1.75 INCH       RANDALL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900765

15

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