Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
303 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight...

Another round of storms is either about to form or has already
formed depending on what time you read this.  MLCAPE values of 1500
to upwards of 2000 J/kg should promote convective development in a
convergent zone noted on radar/obs bisecting the TX Panhandle from
SW to NE. It appears a subtle shrtwv is approaching the area and CU
is beginning to form at around 6500 ft.  This is substantially lower
than the CU yesterday as sfc T/Td spreads are around 30-35F vs the
40-50F spreads we saw yesterday afternoon.  The lower cloud bases
should result in a little bit more efficient rain production and not
as impressive wind production compared to yesterday.  Westerly mid
level winds of 20-30 kts are an increase from yday, but still
probably not quite enough to promote much better storm organization.
 The exception may be in the northern half of the TX Panhandle and
OK Panhandle where shear could be just strong enough to support a
few sustained multicells. Given the mid level flow, expect storms to
have some eastward movement, though it will be slow.  Initial storms
will likely throw some outflows that will kick off other storms. All
in all, expect scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
with a few strong to severe ones possible. Main threats will be
gusty winds, small hail, and some localized flooding. Think that
storm coverage will be less after midnight into tmrw morning than it
was earlier today.

Simpson

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry lightning strikes will again be possible this afternoon, though
they shouldn't be as frequent as the past 2 days. Chaotic winds
around thunderstorms could make containment of any fires somewhat
challenging.

Simpson

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Thursday...
Light to moderate southwest flow aloft is expected to continue
across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles through at least Monday,
owing to center of 500 mb ridge remaining to our southeast.  A
shortwave trof passing Monday night or Tuesday will then lead to
light northwest flow aloft through at least Wednesday night.

Chances for thunderstorms will continue to be higher across the
northwest half of the Combined Panhandles and lower across the
southeast through the forecast.  On Friday, a frontal boundary
across southern sections early in the day is expected to lift
northward as a warm front during the day, although models disagree
regarding speed and extent of movement.  Pops on Friday afternoon
have been extended into east-central Texas Panhandle, as
convergence along the boundary expected to enhance convective
potential.

Thunderstorm development Saturday through Thursday expected to be
largely driven by diurnal heating, with afternoon and nighttime
hours being favored hours for precipitation. Summer-like
temperatures are expected, with highs reaching 100 degrees over
parts of the forecast area through Monday, although not expecting
Heat Advisory thresholds to be reached.  Highs on Tuesday through
Thursday expected to remain below 100 degrees, as aforementioned
shortwave trof expected to bring a weak cold front into the area.

Cockrell

.FIRE WEATHER...

No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected
Friday through Thursday as 20-foot winds remain light to moderate.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected during mainly the afternoon
and nighttime hours.  Stronger and variable winds will occur near
thunderstorms.

Cockrell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                99  72  97  70  99 /  50  30  20  40   5
Beaver OK                  89  67  91  68  99 /  40  30  20  40  20
Boise City OK              91  63  91  65  96 /  30  50  40  70  30
Borger TX                 103  74  99  72 103 /  50  30  20  40   5
Boys Ranch TX             102  69  98  69 100 /  50  30  30  60  10
Canyon TX                  98  70  98  69  99 /  50  30  20  40   5
Clarendon TX               98  73 100  73 101 /  40  30  20  20   5
Dalhart TX                 94  64  93  65  97 /  30  40  30  70  10
Guymon OK                  90  65  92  67  98 /  30  40  20  50  20
Hereford TX               100  70  98  70 100 /  40  30  20  40   5
Lipscomb TX                95  70  95  71 101 /  50  40  20  30  10
Pampa TX                   97  70  96  70 100 /  50  40  20  40   5
Shamrock TX                97  73  98  72 100 /  40  30  20  20   5
Wellington TX             100  74 100  74 102 /  30  30   5  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

09/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
309 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-091100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
309 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong to marginally severe storms are
possible with strong winds being the main threat. Also, small
hail and heavy rain will be possible with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across most of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles mainly during the afternoon and nighttime
hours Friday through Wednesday. Any storms that develop Friday
could potentially reach strong to possibly severe levels. The main
severe weather threat Friday will be damaging winds along with
heavy rainfall. Storms are expected to remain below severe levels
Saturday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Cockrell

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
321 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

TXZ012-082045-
Potter TX-
321 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Bushland, or 16 miles northwest of Amarillo, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 10217 3555 10197 3534 10174 3524 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 230DEG 6KT 3532 10206

DGW