Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites as showers and
thunderstorms move east of the TAF sites. MVFR ceilings possible
in and near showers and thunderstorms at the Guymon TAF site
between 20Z Monday and 00Z Tuesday. Southeast to south and
southwest winds 10 to 20 knots with some gusts diminishing to 5 to
15 knots after 02Z to 06Z Monday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019/

SHORT TERM...This Afternoon and Tonight...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop across
the northwest CWA late this afternoon into this evening. Some
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
southern Texas Panhandle near the Caprock. Local convergence along
the Caprock may be enough to initialize thunderstorms. If
thunderstorms develop in this area they could become severe with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. If storms can last
toward sunset in the southeast Texas Panhandle, then a tornado
threat will increase as a low level jet enhances the shear in the
lowest layers and also increases the low level moisture which will
help to lower the LCL's. Severe thunderstorms will also be
possible with the activity that moves across the northern CWA with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Showers and
thunderstorms should be moving out of the area or dissipating
toward midnight. Low clouds are then expected to move back across
much of the area overnight.

15

LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
Monday sees a transition to southwest flow aloft as the upper closed
low moves onshore into southern California. A series of
shortwaves will eject out from the main low and bring chances for
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday to the Panhandles. Monday
and Tuesday look to have the possibility of large hail and
damaging winds from looking at forecast soundings. CAPE could be
2000 to 2500 J/kg on each day. DCAPE around 1000 J/kg could bring
winds of 70-80mph. Low level shear on Monday is pretty low, but is
over 100 m^2/s^2 on Tuesday. Thus the tornado threat may be more
substantial on Tuesday. By Wednesday night, some precip may happen
for the north or western Panhandles, but coverage will be limited
thanks to being mostly dry slotted as the low opens up to a wave
and passes through. Instability will be very low to non-existent
so just rain chances for now. The next system is a bit fuzzy
between long range models for the end of the week. It is set to
start sending out shortwaves ahead of itself, which will bring
more chances for rain Thursday into Friday with instability
returning on Friday night through Saturday.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
859 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-061200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
859 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the eastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Some storms will have the potential to become strong to severe,
with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. An
isolated tornado could be possible, especially in the southeast
Texas Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles Monday afternoon through Wednesday, and then
again Friday night and Saturday. Some storms that develop Monday
afternoon through Wednesday will have the potential to become
strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. In addition, isolated tornadoes may be possible on
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter groups and emergency management officials across the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles should remain alert this afternoon
and evening and again on Monday and Tuesday afternoon through
evening.

Schneider

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
736 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             17 SE SPEARMAN          36.03N 100.97W
05/05/2019  M1.75 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900571

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
818 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             11 N SUNRAY             36.18N 101.82W
05/05/2019  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            TX   STORM CHASER

            LATE REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL VIA CHASER VIDEO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900572

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
841 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             19 NW MIAMI             35.91N 100.85W
05/05/2019  M1.00 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900573

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HAIL             5 NW MIAMI              35.74N 100.71W
05/05/2019  E1.00 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900574

BIEDA

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