Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
355 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...This Afternoon and Tonight...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop across
the northwest CWA late this afternoon into this evening. Some
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
southern Texas Panhandle near the Caprock. Local convergence along
the Caprock may be enough to initialize thunderstorms. If
thunderstorms develop in this area they could become severe with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. If storms can last
toward sunset in the southeast Texas Panhandle, then a tornado
threat will increase as a low level jet enhances the shear in the
lowest layers and also increases the low level moisture which will
help to lower the LCL's. Severe thunderstorms will also be
possible with the activity that moves across the northern CWA with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Showers and
thunderstorms should be moving out of the area or dissipating
toward midnight. Low clouds are then expected to move back across
much of the area overnight.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
Monday sees a transition to southwest flow aloft as the upper closed
low moves onshore into southern California. A series of
shortwaves will eject out from the main low and bring chances for
thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday to the Panhandles. Monday
and Tuesday look to have the possibility of large hail and
damaging winds from looking at forecast soundings. CAPE could be
2000 to 2500 J/kg on each day. DCAPE around 1000 J/kg could bring
winds of 70-80mph. Low level shear on Monday is pretty low, but is
over 100 m^2/s^2 on Tuesday. Thus the tornado threat may be more
substantial on Tuesday. By Wednesday night, some precip may happen
for the north or western Panhandles, but coverage will be limited
thanks to being mostly dry slotted as the low opens up to a wave
and passes through. Instability will be very low to non-existent
so just rain chances for now. The next system is a bit fuzzy
between long range models for the end of the week. It is set to
start sending out shortwaves ahead of itself, which will bring
more chances for rain Thursday into Friday with instability
returning on Friday night through Saturday.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  83  57  78  54 /  20  20  30  40  40
Beaver OK                  56  84  56  75  55 /  40  30  50  50  60
Boise City OK              49  83  52  75  47 /  10  20  20  20  30
Borger TX                  56  87  59  78  56 /  30  30  30  40  50
Boys Ranch TX              53  86  57  80  53 /   5  10  10  30  40
Canyon TX                  56  85  56  80  53 /  20  20  20  40  40
Clarendon TX               57  81  59  78  57 /  30  30  50  40  60
Dalhart TX                 50  84  51  78  49 /  10  10  10  20  30
Guymon OK                  53  84  55  76  52 /  20  30  30  40  50
Hereford TX                54  85  56  80  52 /  10  10  20  30  30
Lipscomb TX                57  83  58  76  57 /  40  30  50  50  70
Pampa TX                   56  83  58  76  56 /  40  30  40  40  60
Shamrock TX                57  81  59  76  59 /  50  30  50  40  70
Wellington TX              59  81  60  78  59 /  50  30  50  40  70

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

15/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-060900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
310 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today
and tonight across most of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
Some storms will have the potential to become strong to severe,
with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. An
isolated tornado could be possible, especially in the southeast
Texas Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles Monday afternoon through Wednesday, and then
again Friday night and Saturday. Some storms that develop Monday
afternoon through Wednesday will have the potential to become
strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. In addition, isolated tornadoes may be possible on
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter groups and emergency management officials across the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles should remain alert this afternoon
and evening and again on Monday and Tuesday afternoon through
evening.

Beat

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             11 N HEREFORD           34.98N 102.40W
05/05/2019  M1.75 INCH       DEAF SMITH         TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1900564

BIEDA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
558 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

TXZ002-003-052330-
Sherman TX-Hansford TX-
558 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SHERMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN
HANSFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Stratford, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3640 10142 3605 10142 3605 10145 3613 10204
      3641 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 281DEG 12KT 3626 10185

LG