Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
613 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing at this time along
surface trof running through far southern Texas Panhandle, from
near Hereford to near Hedley and Samnorwood.  Expect that these
thunderstorms will remain south of all terminals, including AMA.

MVFR ceilings expected through 06z Saturday at AMA with
occasional scattering through 03z Saturday.  MVFR ceilings
expected to develop later this evening at northern terminals.
Ceilings at all terminals expected to fall into IFR or LIFR range
around 06z or 07z, with IFR visibilities before sunrise.

All terminals return to VFR by late Saturday morning, with light
southerly surface winds.  Scattered thunderstorms expected
develop across western half of forecast area, including all
terminals, Saturday afternoon.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

SHORT TERM...
Any thunderstorms across the southern Texas Panhandle late this
afternoon should move south of the area or dissipate by sunset.  May
go ahead and add a slight chance of thunderstorms to the southern
Texas Panhandle this evening for the chance that storms are still in
our area.

On Saturday an upper level short wave trough will approach the
Panhandles from Colorado and New Mexico by early afternoon.  Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern New Mexico
along a surface trough that will extend southward from a low over
southeast Colorado.  Some of these storms may get severe with large
hail and damaging winds the main threats.  The shear will increase
and so will the instability as this short wave trough moves across
the western Panhandles during the afternoon.  Showers and
thunderstorms will then move across most of the Panhandles through
Saturday night.

LONG TERM...
On Sunday a low pressure system over the Pacific Ocean will reach
the coast of California just south of the Bay Area. Current
Satellite analysis has the system located near 35 degrees N, 140
degrees W. Midlevel flow Sunday will be zonal over the area with no
real upper level features to affect the CWA. However, warming
southwest flow at the surface and WAA at the h85 layer, will allow
surface temperatures to reach the convective temperature allowing
for thunderstorm develop. Coverage will be isolated to scattered
mainly in the eastern CWA where the higher moisture flux will occur
given the model solutions. There is a potential for thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon/evening to become strong to severe given the
favorable instability and veering wind profile. LCL's will be a bit
elevated especially further west around 3 km near Amarillo.
Dewpoints on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to near 60 in the far
southeast with mid 30s to mid 40s in the western CWA.

Going into Monday upper level flow becomes more southwesterly as the
closed low in the west moves south along the California coast.
Another chance for precipitation will arrive Monday night with a
shortwave or two embedded in the northwest flow moves through the
Panhandles by Monday evening. Even warmer h85 temps will be in the
area allowing for surface temperatures to rise a few degrees warmer
than Sunday. Once again, surface based convection will be possible
Monday evening in the east where dewpoints will be in the upper 50s
to 60s. The GFS solution shows a bit of a CAP, but is also showing
embedded shortwaves at h5 flow that will help break the CAP. The
Euro is suggesting the CAP will erode without the help of elevated
features. Positive theta-e advection will be present at h85 and h7
both Monday and Tuesday evening especially over the eastern half of
the CWA. The GFS solution in previous runs was wanting to bring a
dryline further east along the Texas and Oklahoma state line. With
the new 12Z run today the GFS has slowed down and keeps the dryline
further west closer to Amarillo Tuesday afternoon into evening. It
has also slowed down on the progression of a cold front that is
progged to move into the CWA from the north early Wednesday morning.
The Euro and GFS are in fairly good agreement up to this point where
they have previously disagreed. With the dry line set up and
moisture advection, shear and instability are favorable for severe
weather. Will have to keep an eye on the model trends to from Sunday
through Tuesday evening as each day may present severe weather
chances, with Tuesday looking to be the greatest risk but is still a
ways out. For the rest of the week after Tuesday the area will
continue to see chances for precipitation as this wet trend
continues. Daytime highs Wednesday through Friday will be quite mild
for this time of the year, post-frontal.

Hoffeditz

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  74  52  80  56 /  20  20  40  20  30
Beaver OK                  47  72  52  82  56 /  10  10  30  20  30
Boise City OK              47  75  48  81  51 /  10  30  30  10  10
Borger TX                  50  76  54  82  59 /  10  20  40  20  30
Boys Ranch TX              50  79  51  83  54 /  20  30  40  20  20
Canyon TX                  51  77  51  81  55 /  20  30  40  20  30
Clarendon TX               52  73  54  81  57 /  20  10  30  20  30
Dalhart TX                 47  75  48  81  51 /  10  30  40  10  10
Guymon OK                  46  74  50  82  54 /  10  30  40  20  20
Hereford TX                50  77  51  81  55 /  20  30  40  20  30
Lipscomb TX                48  71  53  81  57 /  10   5  30  20  30
Pampa TX                   49  72  53  80  57 /  20  10  40  20  30
Shamrock TX                51  70  54  80  58 /  20   5  30  20  30
Wellington TX              52  70  55  81  59 /  20   5  30  20  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

03/21

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
549 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ016-032330-
Deaf Smith TX-
549 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 548 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hereford, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hereford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10255 3492 10241 3490 10217 3475 10217
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 223DEG 10KT 3478 10238

JC